First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 - ???)

[RTR91]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

My only issue with this line of reasoning, is that 4 of your top 6 (currently) can win out, and not play in a Championship Game.....on that last weekend.....that doesn't jive with my brain, I guess.....

Then, using this logic, Alabama, LSU, Notre Dame and Baylor, can win out, and can't get in either......and I guess that goes for TCU, Ok State as well....

You have to remember the poll is the committee's ranking of the teams after that particular week. With the Big 12 teams' schedules back loaded, they are going to improve their SOS and resume. That is why Florida State moved down twice last year even though it was undefeated.

 

[CrimSonami]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

Is the BCS system still being produced weekly? If so how does it compare to the committee results?

Just curious. But IMO, as others have stated, the BCS system should have been left as it was and use the same playoff bracket the committee is using.

RTR!!!

 

[tidefanbeezer]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

Is the BCS system still being produced weekly? If so how does it compare to the committee results?

Just curious. But IMO, as others have stated, the BCS system should have been left as it was and use the same playoff bracket the committee is using.

RTR!!!

See this post.

I don't think the BCS still produces a poll, but this is a good simulation.

 

[CajunCrimson]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

You have to remember the poll is the committee's ranking of the teams after that particular week. With the Big 12 teams' schedules back loaded, they are going to improve their SOS and resume. That is why Florida State moved down twice last year even though it was undefeated.

I get that....and I know that will change as we go....but many of you are suggesting that we will move out of the Top 4 - during Championship week, if we aren't playing...

what I was saying is that, using everyone's logic about OM has to lose or we can't get in because we won't be in the Championship Game -- is that 4 of the top 6 and 8 of the top 12 or so can't get in.....that argument doesn't work for me....

Someone has to get in that doesn't win a Power 5 Championship Game....especially if the PAC12 may not have anyone with less than 2 losses.....that leaves only the SECCG, the ACCCG and the B1GCG.....and if OM wins the SECCG -- than that leaves only 2 that win their Championship Game....

They will have to then have 2 teams that didn't play in a Championship game to make up the other 2 teams....(because you wouldn't take a team that LOST a CG)

There's no other way to make it work otherwise......which again, tells me that if Bama wins out, we are in.....because who would get in ahead of us?

 

[TideEngineer08]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

LSU is safe if they win out. That would make them 13-0, SEC champions. That resume will not be trumped by 4 other teams at year's end.

They are NOT safe if somehow they lose a game and don't play in the SEC title game. Of course, hopefully that loss comes this weekend.

CajunCrimson, at least all I'm saying is that if Alabama finishes 11-1 without an SEC championship, in order for them to remain in the top 4, we have to assume some other things happen in the other conferences. If Alabama finishes 12-1 with an SEC title, I don't believe we have to assume anything at all and Alabama is in regardless of what goes on elsewhere.

 

[tidefanbeezer]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

I get that....and I know that will change as we go....but many of you are suggesting that we will move out of the Top 4 - during Championship week, if we aren't playing...

what I was saying is that, using everyone's logic about OM has to lose or we can't get in because we won't be in the Championship Game -- is that 4 of the top 6 and 8 of the top 12 or so can't get in.....that argument doesn't work for me....

Someone has to get in that doesn't win a Power 5 Championship Game....especially if the PAC12 may not have anyone with less than 2 losses.....that leaves only the SECCG, the ACCCG and the B1GCG.....and if OM wins the SECCG -- than that leaves only 2 that win their Championship Game....

They will have to then have 2 teams that didn't play in a Championship game to make up the other 2 teams....(because you wouldn't take a team that LOST a CG)

There's no other way to make it work otherwise......which again, tells me that if Bama wins out, we are in.....because who would get in ahead of us?

If Baylor wins out, they are undefeated and Big 12 Champions. I think they would get in. So we now assume that ACC, B1G and Big 12 are represented. If we assume that Notre Dame wins out, I think they get in. Temple and Navy have helped their schedule and USC resurgence will help as well. They still play Stanford to end the season and could finish with their only loss being in a close game on the road to the top seeded team.

Notre Dame would then benefit from not having a conference. I think Alabama and LSU would be penalized for not winning their conference and Notre Dame would be evaluated with out conference related baggage, giving them the edge.

The point of all this is that there are too many moving parts to boil the play-off selection down to "win and your in". It's just not that simple because no one knows how the committee thinks. Right now, they think Alabama is the 4th best team.

 

[RTR91]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

I get that....and I know that will change as we go....but many of you are suggesting that we will move out of the Top 4 - during Championship week, if we aren't playing...

what I was saying is that, using everyone's logic about OM has to lose or we can't get in because we won't be in the Championship Game -- is that 4 of the top 6 and 8 of the top 12 or so can't get in.....that argument doesn't work for me....

Someone has to get in that doesn't win a Power 5 Championship Game....especially if the PAC12 may not have anyone with less than 2 losses.....that leaves only the SECCG, the ACCCG and the B1GCG.....and if OM wins the SECCG -- than that leaves only 2 that win their Championship Game....

They will have to then have 2 teams that didn't play in a Championship game to make up the other 2 teams....(because you wouldn't take a team that LOST a CG)

There's no other way to make it work otherwise......which again, tells me that if Bama wins out, we are in.....because who would get in ahead of us?

The idea that Alabama is in no matter what as long as it wins out is flawed. We saw it last year with TCU.

Let's look at the possible teams:

The Undefeated's
ACC: Clemson
B1G: Iowa, Michigan State, or Ohio State
Big 12: Baylor, Oklahoma State, or TCU
SEC: LSU
Group of 5: Houston or Memphis

The 1-Loss Pack
ACC: Florida State or North Carolina
B1G: ----
Big 12: Oklahoma
Pac 12: Stanford or Utah
SEC: Alabama or Florida
Independent: Notre Dame

Wild Card
Ole Miss

If the ACC, B1G, and Big 12 champions are undefeated, you have one spot left.

Who do you think gets it if the Pac-12 champion has one loss compared to the SEC champion's two losses (Ole Miss) or Alabama's 1?

 

[CoastGhost]

Re: Analysis of First Playoff Poll

They all talk stuff, including the ESPN talking pieholes but here is the thing ... if we were face to face with any of these people who think Alabama should not be ranked high and laid down a grand - Alabama against their team; how many of them would ask for points?

 

[mittman]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

You have to remember the poll is the committee's ranking of the teams after that particular week. With the Big 12 teams' schedules back loaded, they are going to improve their SOS and resume. That is why Florida State moved down twice last year even though it was undefeated.

Yup.

The ONLY thing that the 4 ranking earns us right now is that it tells us they like our team's body of work to date more. Nothing more, nothing less.

There are plenty of cases where other teams can pick up what they may call quality wins and pass us, but we have some opportunities for quality wins too. They do not consider our loss a bad one, at least not at this point.

 

[ROTYDE]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

Yup.

The ONLY thing that the 4 ranking earns us right now is that it tells us they like our team's body of work to date more. Nothing more, nothing less.

There are plenty of cases where other teams can pick up what they may call quality wins and pass us, but we have some opportunities for quality wins too. They do not consider our loss a bad one, at least not at this point.

Ding ding ding ding we have a winner..

 

[IH8Orange]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

Ah, Deja Vu.

I remember a season when we had a great defense, a great defensive line, an inconsistent offense, a running back named "Derrick", and a QB whose first name started with "Ja" and last name ended with "ker". We were undefeated that season, but we still had the entire country mad that we were ranked so highly.

 

[22Musso22]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

Even though I am happy with our ranking, I hate this all being decided by eggheads in a closed room for 3 hours every week.
They fall in love and out of love with teams, because they just decide to. It isn't right and it isn't good.
Never thought I would miss the BCS, but I really do.

 

[CoastGhost]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

The idea that Alabama is in no matter what as long as it wins out is flawed. We saw it last year with TCU.

Let's look at the possible teams:


Who do you think gets it if the Pac-12 champion has one loss compared to the SEC champion's two losses (Ole Miss) or Alabama's 1?

I have high confidence that if Alabama wins the SEC with 1 loss, we will be in regardless of anything else that happens in college football.

 

[IH8Orange]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

Even though I am happy with our ranking, I hate this all being decided by eggheads in a closed room for 3 hours every week.
They fall in love and out of love with teams, because they just decide to. It isn't right and it isn't good.
Never thought I would miss the BCS, but I really do.

It's just like when I go to the grocery store and see "New and Improved" on my favorite brand of Chili. I know that I'll be longing for the "Old and Regressed".

 

[RTR91]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

I have high confidence that if Alabama wins the SEC with 1 loss, we will be in regardless of anything else that happens in college football.

My statement was working under the belief Alabama doesn't win the SEC.


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[BAMARICH]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

Even though I am happy with our ranking, I hate this all being decided by eggheads in a closed room for 3 hours every week.
They fall in love and out of love with teams, because they just decide to. It isn't right and it isn't good.
Never thought I would miss the BCS, but I really do.

This is the thing that so many people are mistaken about IMO. You guys are trying to judge this system in the light of traditional polling like the AP and the Coach's poll. We aren't #4 this week because the committee "fell in love with us". We're #4 because at THIS point in the season, we have a resume deserving that spot. IF Baylor or Michigan State would have played a tougher schedule to this point, we'd be behind them - it's as simple as that. Traditional polls don't normally include SOS and injury situations as part of ther ranking philosophy... but this committee does.

If in two weeks the committee ranks Baylor/Michigan State ahead of us, it's not because "they fell out of love with us"... it'll be because the entire landscape changed.

 

[BAMARICH]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

All undefeated teams in Power 5 conferences all control their destiny... if they win out they're in the playoff (duh). That list includes Baylor/TCU/Ok State from the Big 12, Iowa/Michigan State/Ohio State from the Big 10, Clemson from the ACC, and LSU from the SEC.

Realizing that many of the above teams could theoretically lose a game a still end up being their conference champion, the additional teams control their own destiny as well without having help.
* Florida would end up being the SEC champ if they continue to win (one loss).
* FSU or North Carolina would end up being the ACC champ if they continue to win (one loss).
* Stanford or Utah would end up being the Pac 12 champ if they continue to win (one loss).
* Oklahoma would end up being the Big 12 champ if the cinque to win (one loss).

At present, I believe the committee would take ANY undefeated/one-loss Power 5 conference champion WITH a championship game over Bama (possible exception being one-loss Big 12 champ). Obviously, there are a myriad of possibilities, but the paths that are likeliest to a playoff berth for Bama is a two-loss conference champ (Ole Miss, FSU, Utah, USC, and Stanford would seem the likeliest IMO).

 

[rgw]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

The big reason why I think Alabama would not get hoodwinked like TCU if Alabama finishes 11-1 but with no SECCG is simply due to the quality wins they will have racked up against LSU and MSU plus the overall strength of schedule.

I firmly believe that things are gonna get weird this month and we shouldn't worry about it much and just worry about the very real thing standing in front of us: a fearsome LSU team.

 

[trenda]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

It's funny to me that folks don't realize this is not a traditional AP or coaches poll where a team keeps the spot they are in by just winning. The teams will be "re-ranked" on a weekly basis. I think that's why so many media types got bent out of shape yesterday - instead of thinking about how the playoff committee process works they decided to just throw shade at Bama. Quite frankly, it's tiring listening to all the what if scenarios (not talking about on this forum just on radio, TV, etc). There are probably over 100 different way to calculate who the final four teams will be. I really hope that there isn't this kind of reaction to playoff committee poll for the next 5 or 6 weeks..

Agree with this. If we stumble at all (even while winning), we're liable to fall out of the top 4. If one of those committee members eats a chili dog that doesn't agree with him, who knows where we land. We have to win, and win convincingly, and hope that either LSU or MSU beats the Rebelblackbearlandsharks.

 

[CoastGhost]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

My statement was working under the belief Alabama doesn't win the SEC.


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I fear that scenario too but at that point we can only say what many (including me) said last year for teams that were on the bubble; shoulda' won 'em all if you wanted to be in.