QB Competition 2018

It's becoming plain to see that our issues are much deeper than the QB position this year. Not to say he is not blameless but we pretty much won in 15 with a QB that couldn't hit the side of a barn and on the back of one running back. We probably had one of the better Tight ends in Bama history that finally got to break out in the natty. Bama is always a better team when we commit to running the ball with our backs. We just haven't been sure what we wanted to do the last couple of years..


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The problem with this is because we can only infer Tua can make those plays. Remember, Hurts has actually had a lot of good days passing, it's against the best defenses when he is getting pressure that the biggest problems emerge. So, while I agree in the assumption that Tua can make those plays, it's not a certainty. The bigger issue though is can Tua make all of the plays? There are so many nuances to running an offense and even if Tua is demonstrably better in one area does not mean he's going to be as good in all of the others. In this case, I think it's something to be settled in spring. Alabama didn't bring in Tua to not let him compete for a starting job, but opening up the competition with so much on the line invites disaster. There will be growing pains (look at Sam Darnold, the best pro prospect who also became a turnover machine early in the season).


We might find out the answer this year. Hurts still has the second best winning percentage of any of the Saban Alabama quarterbacks. If things get back on track, or if things devolve, I think we'll have our answer. But, I do think there's a middle ground, they have to insure they are not asking too much of Hurts, it's easy to forget he's still younger than any of the starting QBs Saban has had at Alabama. It is risky to put everything on his back.


I just think that's more a question for spring. The odd thing is after the game my gut reaction was Daboll has to go. A lot of other people had the other reaction, Hurts has to go. Alabama might very well have to choose between one or the other, but they're all in on both of them this season.


I have on occasion qualified it. I think Daboll has done a lot off of the field to help Hurts improve. Daboll is a pro guy, he knows what is needed and he's handled his share of NFL quarterbacks. I think his play calling has probably helped Hurts to develop. The key is developing Hurts as a pro style quarterback, and utilizing him as one are not necessarily going to be able to happen at the same pace. In other words, Hurts still needs to develop more before he can become the type of pocket passer Daboll probably wants him to be.


That's not really true. I stood up for Sims when a lot of people thought he simply couldn't pass, but Sims was given a far less complex offense to run. Even then, Sims and Hurts put up quite comparable numbers. Given the fact that Sims had a lot of simpler passes to make, it's just not reasonable to conclude Sims was the better passer when the numbers are extremely close. Last year you might have been correct, but it doesn't hold true this year.

Sims in his senior year had a passer rating of 157.9. He threw the ball 391 times and ran 83 times for an average of 4.2. Hurts has a passer rating of 155.6 this year, he has thrown the ball 222 times and ran 137 times for an average of 5.6.

The enormous gap as you can see is that Hurts is running more and throwing less. This lead to Sims throwing for many more yards and TDs. The thing is, Sims had simple reads almost all the time. He was better at some aspects though, clearly, but don't forget he was a converted running back. Kiffin gave him an offense tailored for what he could do, and did a great job of leaving out what he couldn't do (which tended to be more of the intermediate length stuff).

Ok... two things that you're totally incorrect on here. Blake Sims, any way you cut it, was a better passer than Jalen Hurts. It's very obvious Kiffin played to his strengths well, but the numbers plus eye test don't lie. You can't play the "if he'd been in Blake's situation he would be better" card and make it stick here. He DID have Kiffin as his OC last year and according to you he was even worse than the numbers he put up. BS's accuracy, downfield passing, and pocket presence was better - it's not close at all.

Second, the overall record (winning percentage) doesn't say what you say it does. Jay Barker is tied for the best winning % that any UA QB has enjoyed in a season (1992)... a better winning % than Joe Namath enjoyed from 1962-1964. Yet, would we try to advance the argument that the "1992 Jay Barker" was a better QB than any of the yearly versions of Joe Namath because of the better winning percentage? This may sound harsh, but at Alabama, QB's are not judged by their performances versus average to poor opponents - they're judged by their performances against the best opponents. And by "performance" I'm not talking about solely if the team walked out with a "w" or an "l". Rather, did the team win because of their performance or in spite of their performance?

It seems, from what I'm reading from you, that you're totally opposed to allowing Tua a chance in the postseason. Is that where you stand?
 
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Sims was great at long and short passes - suffered a bit on intermediate routes. But where there were very similar is in their ability to go through progressions. Sims was essentially a one read QB. Kiffin did a great job of scheming to ensure that the one route was going to be there, but if it wasn't Sims had to run or throw it away.

Big, this isn’t the same Blake Sims I watched.
 
Jalen reminds me of how raven fans talked about Trent Dilfer when he was winning all those game for the Ravens and even won a ring. When he was gone his head coach who couldn't wait to get rid of him was wishing he had a guy who was a game manager and risk adverse like Dilfer was. Shortly after Dilfer left the head coach lost his job for lack of a qb. Now Dilfer could make all the throws but he just didn't have tha big arm like a Bret Farve. I am not comparing the two skill wise, just pointing out they both ain't never been nothing but a winner.

"You never know how a horse will pull until you hook him up to a heavy load".
 
don't forget that in the two weeks leading up to the arn bowl that most of the folks here thought that jalen would be the x factor in us beating the barn with our depleted defense.
I was one and even thought that the only reason Bama had a reasonable chance of winning any championships this year was because of Jalen. My proven ignorance, while giving me pause, doesn't keep me from continuing to speculate :). I can't help it.
 
IMO... we're not really touching on the most important issue with this line of reasoning. Did Jalen do this in high pressure situations against top flite teams or in low pressure situations against lower level opponents? Don't get me wrong, I'm not throwing shade on his performance against a lot of our opponents - that game experience can help a QB improve over the long haul. Instead, what's most important to me is how he does against the best of our opponents, with a close look at completion %.
FSU: 10 for 18 for 96 yards (55.6 completion %)
LSU: 11 for 24 for 183 yards (45.8 completion %)
MSU: 10 for 18 for 242 yards (55.6 completion %)
AU: 12 for 22 for 112 yards (54.5 completion %)
Average: 11 for 20 for 158 yards (52.9 completion %)

Check out the completion % against our other 2017 opponents:
Fresno: 77.8%
CSU: 70.6%
Vandy: 52.9%
Ole Miss: 63.2%
TAMU: 59.1%
Arkansas: 63.2%
UT: 61.9%
Mercer: 100%
Average: 68.6%

Interestingly, if you go back to 2016 and check his numbers against the probable top four teams on our schedule, you get this. BTW, I give him a break for being a true freshman that year.
LSU: 10 for 19 for 107 yards (52.6 completion %)
UF: 11 for 20 for 138 yards (55.0 completion %)
UW: 7 for 14 for 57 yards (50.0 completion %)
Clemson: 13 for 31 for 131 yards (41.9 completion %)
Average: 10 for 22 for 108 yards (49.9 completion %)

For those of you who look at the raw number comparisons between 2016 and 2017 and say "see, I told you JH has improved", remember that the top 4 teams we've played thus far this year don't quite compare to our top 4 last year - there was an SEC champion and two CFP teams in that mix last year. The bottom line is that he hasn't really improved when it comes down to performances against the best teams - he's feasted on poor teams and that's elevating his numbers. If you want a comparison that is quite telling, go back and check the numbers for Blake Sims and Jake Coker from 14/15. It's a punch in the gut to see how first-year starters fared and then look at a second-year starter performing like JH has this year.
Thanks for the work, but one thing missing from the analysis is the fact that last year probably 30% of the yardage and a high % of the completions came on the pop passes. The improvement from last year to this on throwing the ball down field is much greater than the overall stats suggest. IMO, Jalen has improved significantly. Having said that, he desperately needs to improve his pocket presence and patience. IMO, if things don't change, the Bama offense will waste some of the best skilled talent ever assembled and more importantly, limit the team's ability to win against good competition. As you point out the difference between avg-decent teams and good teams is stark. While that's to be expected to some extent, the numbers against good Ds are very poor. The avg ypc, which may be the most important passing stat, was barely 5 against FSU and AU; it was good against MSU and decent against LSU.

Bama is going to have a tough time recruiting WRs and even RBs to some degree unless there is a quick resolution. CNS is likely tormented by the facts facing him. He is much more attached to players than most realize, and the thought of replacing Jalen is probably one of the toughest decisions he has faced in his career. But things can unravel in a hurry; not that Bama will fall off of a cliff, but the dominance can come to an end at any moment. Bama either needs to change the offense to accommodate Jalen but would not be compatible with the other talent, or likely change the QB to Tua, who better fits the offense Saban is more comfortable with, which is better suited to training players for the NFL and accommodates the existing offensive skill talent. This coming from a very big supporter of Jalen, one who previously thought he was the only reason Bama had a legitimate possibility of winning anything this year. Certainly, Jalen is only part of the problem, but he is the QB. Maybe he can improve enough, but currently his pocket presence is bad; and the OL is better than most are giving them credit for. He is helping making them look worse than they are. Thankfully, I can be wrong, so I hope everything I said is not true :).
 
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Sims also had one of the best receivers we've ever had wearing Crimson to throw to - Amari Cooper. And a lot of his passes went to Cooper. In fact, I've heard Sims say he "held his breath when he threw it" waiting to see if Cooper could make the play. It helps to have a receiver you trust that much so you can just throw it up there and hope he makes the play. Sims' one read was often "find Cooper." Just saying.
You don't think Jalen's one read is often "find Ridley?"
 
Majority of people on this board are Jalen Hurts fans and want him to succeed. A lot has been put on his shoulders by the coaches. Maybe too much.
 
I will mention one minor point as well. Daboll is technically Co-OC with Locksley. We also have Dan Werner as Offensive Analyst and Chris Weinke on staff too. All of which come from different offensive pedigrees. I can see where we just have a hodge podge offense letting everyone sprinkle their own preferences into the playbook.

Another thing, maybe I shouldn't be, but I am worried out our recruiting momentum right now. I go over to that forum regularly and it's relatively stone cold for information. It just feels eerily quiet to me compared to past years. I get we have a small class, etc but that shouldn't account for the dramatic drop in information.

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This was a long, tough read. Only I think Dabol works for CNS and most probably sets up his game plan the way coach wants, and makes most calls accordingly. I just hate the qb draws as most have failed against the better defenses. As soon as he starts it's over, no gain. A wasted down. I like both qbs and am awaiting the spring competition. I am hoping for an Orange bowl against the u or a Cotton bowl against OSU or TCU. Bama fatigue is finally going to get us and keep us out of the CFP. Then against one of those, we'll all get to see how much of all this analysis proves then. And we all will be sitting closer to the set.
 
I will mention one minor point as well. Daboll is technically Co-OC with Locksley. We also have Dan Werner as Offensive Analyst and Chris Weinke on staff too. All of which come from different offensive pedigrees. I can see where we just have a hodge podge offense letting everyone sprinkle their own preferences into the playbook.

Another thing, maybe I shouldn't be, but I am worried out our recruiting momentum right now. I go over to that forum regularly and it's relatively stone cold for information. It just feels eerily quiet to me compared to past years. I get we have a small class, etc but that shouldn't account for the dramatic drop in information.

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It's hurt us already, materially. How many WRs want to sign up for what was on the field on Saturday? I think we're out of the top 10 for the first time in a long time...
 
Majority of people on this board are Jalen Hurts fans and want him to succeed. A lot has been put on his shoulders by the coaches. Maybe too much.

Or, is it possible he's taken too much on himself with the options his position affords so that it is starting to hurt the performance of the offense and the feelings/attitudes of his teammates?
 
It's becoming plain to see that our issues are much deeper than the QB position this year.
I don't think the problems are as bad as they might appear at first glance. But, this is an offense that has had three play callers in less than a year, has had three different backup quarterbacks over that period of time, and had to hire their last OC as an emergency hire. Part of what I think we saw on offense not just last game, but in some tougher games was kind of the inevitable consequence of having to deal with a lot of disruption without a lot of chances to really adjust. It was from Washington with Kiffin, to Clemson with Sark, to FSU with Daboll. There hasn't been a lot of chances to go back to the drawing board (they might be doing that now) In addition, as has been mentioned there's a lot of potential cooks in the kitchen. When Alabama had Pendry and Applewhite, there were some dysfunctions on offense as well. I think though that Alabama has a lot of time and the impetus to address some of the issues.

Ok... two things that you're totally incorrect on here. Blake Sims, any way you cut it, was a better passer than Jalen Hurts. It's very obvious Kiffin played to his strengths well, but the numbers plus eye test don't lie. You can't play the "if he'd been in Blake's situation he would be better" card and make it stick here.
Ok, Blake Sims is one subject on which I feel I'm particularly entitled to speak on. I caught so much crap for years, years, standing up for Blake Sims abilities! I came back from his very first A-Day and commented that he could actually throw the ball (by the way I came back from A-Day after seeing Hurts and said he was a viable candidate to start). When Ely was third string I argued with people who said that Sims wasn't really the backup, that Ely would come in in an emergency. I argued with people when they said the same thing about Alec. Ironically, the general disrespect that Blake Sims received has only been matched by the disrespect that Hurts has received.

There was one prolonged argument prior to Sims senior season (that stretched over multiple threads) in which multiple people repeatedly insisted Blake Sims could not throw the long ball! On this forum, repeated, unchecked except by me. I'd come in and go look, I saw him throw the deep pass at A-Day, he can do it, he might not have the best range but he can get the ball out there. I'd get shot down, they'd go back to asserting he can't do it. It was frustrating because they simply wouldn't listen to the truth, they had their minds made up. I finally gave up and told them we'd have to see. Now here we are, and the last time I saw a conversation about Blake Sim's deep pass, it was that he was one of the best ever at it, at Alabama. So, as someone that spent years standing up for the guy's basic abilities, as literally one of his biggest defenders on this forum, I'm not the guy to underestimate his abilities.

Having said that. He was always obviously limited as a quarterback. My whole assertion was he could play QB, and could win at Alabama. It was never that he could do everything. I really had a tough time holding ground after his other A-Day travesties, in which he was absolutely abysmal. Even I started to doubt him somewhat, because he just looked so bad. But Saban explained it in pretty simple and relevant terms. He said that Blake was being asked to do different things at A-Day. And he looked really bad doing it. That's not a knock on Blake Sims, it's just his limitations. What Kiffin did was strip the playbook of things Blake Sims struggled at, simplified things, and left in things he could do. It worked, well, as your statements attest to (in contrast to the many negative things people had to say for so long). But to kind of retroactively upgrade him, isn't realistic. He was carefully utilized, he was not just put in the pocket and told to make reads. That wasn't how he was used.

He DID have Kiffin as his OC last year and according to you he was even worse than the numbers he put up.
I have to empathize one thing before we proceed. Last year Hurts was a true freshman. He was also the most prolific true freshman quarterback in history! So, comparing that to a fifth year senior is such a stretch. I did compare Hurts to Sims this year though (155 to 157 rating), but Kiffin did wonders with both Hurts and Sims, he just had them in completely different points of their development. I can't believe some people just happen to forget Hurts is still the youngest starting QB Saban has had at Alabama. That's a factor here. I said all along that Hurts would improve as a passer (some claimed he plateaued last year) and clearly he did improve.

Now, back to Hurts and what I said. I said Sims senior year he might have been a better passer than Hurts was last year. But, Sims was a better passer his senior year than the year before. People improve, and Hurts did as well. The thing you might be overlooking with this statement is this. I said Kiffin helped Blake deal with his weaknesses. He helped Hurts as well and I fully believe had Kiffin been just mentally present, that Hurts would have done better against Washington and Clemson, and Alabama would have won the title. The thing is Daboll is a pro guy and Kiffin is an NFL guy. He's helped Hurts develop, probably more than Kiffin would have. But he's not giving Hurts the easier stuff, he's not covering up Hurts weakness like Kiffin did last year when Hurts wasn't as good a passer, or like Kiffin did for Blake Sims. Daboll is asking Hurts to make more complex reads, he's allowing him to hold onto the ball longer, and you see the result. Hurts can manage against weaker defenses, but he's not yet up to doing as much against the best defenses (and a lot of college quarterbacks wouldn't be).

It seems, from what I'm reading from you, that you're totally opposed to allowing Tua a chance in the postseason. Is that where you stand?
Absolutely. There's no justification for benching Hurts at this point in the season. You want a QB battle in the spring when you can handle the situation better. You don't blow up what's left of the season because of some issues. It's odd that you're so against just feeding Hurts some easier passes but swapping out starters? No big deal... which sounds more disruptive to you?

A lot has been put on his shoulders by the coaches. Maybe too much.
I'd agree, I think Hurts has been given too much responsibility and some of that responsibility needs to go back to the play caller.

Or, is it possible he's taken too much on himself with the options his position affords so that it is starting to hurt the performance of the offense and the feelings/attitudes of his teammates?
Since I've been using it as an example, how exactly would Hurts take too much on himself with a jet sweep? If Daboll calls a quick enough developing play that's simple enough, Hurts is going to have to get rid of the ball. If Hurts is actually just outright insubordinate, than that's another issue and must be addressed. But the longer the plays take to develop the more "say" Hurts has in what occurs. I said several games ago I wanted Hurts to run less and be "forced" to throw the ball more. That's all I'm calling for now really, and I kind of expect that to be what Daboll ends up doing.
 
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Sims also had one of the best receivers we've ever had wearing Crimson to throw to - Amari Cooper. And a lot of his passes went to Cooper. In fact, I've heard Sims say he "held his breath when he threw it" waiting to see if Cooper could make the play. It helps to have a receiver you trust that much so you can just throw it up there and hope he makes the play. Sims' one read was often "find Cooper." Just saying.
Ridley ain't chopped liver.

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Since Blake Sims name has been brought up I went back and watched highlights of him from several 2014 games. Several things jumped out at me:

1) He got rid of the ball fast. It wasn't always a 1-read play either. That's a myth. I saw him quickly go to the 2nd or 3rd option barring time.

2) He stood tall in the pocket and stepped into a collapsing one and would at times get absolutely blasted as his threw the ball out to his WR.

3) If he did get flushed he kept his eyes downfield continuously scanning for as long as possible looking to throw 1st before running.

4) He didn't just throw deep or short. He hit WR's on slants, digs, curls, and crosses.

5) Cooper wasn't always the 1st read. He might still get the ball but it's because Blake went through a progression and found #9 open.

6) He gave his WR's a chance and trusted them and threw into coverage with 50/50 balls. Cooper made them about 90/10 :wink:

7) He threw 'to a spot' and trusted the WR would be there......he didn't wait for a guy to be WIDE OPEN.


8) He saw mismatches pre-snap and instantly went to them.

Just want to give Blake Sims credit where credit is due. There is a tendency to think 'Cooper made him'. I think they both actually made each other. Blake trusted Cooper and laid the ball out there with beautifully thrown balls (sometimes in 2-3 man coverage) and Cooper rewarded that trust by making incredible plays. It was a two way street.

But as far as this year's team..... I'm not seeing a lot of those above traits listed happening in current games.

We might not have guys wide open right away..... but they could eventually get open or at worst be in man coverage.

But instead of staying in the pocket and taking a lick if need be to get the ball out to them and trust them to make a play we bail after 2-3 seconds and destroy the routes timing.....then WR's are having to finish routes.....see that the QB needs help and start trying to comeback/ad-lib to help him out while he keeps running.

So either we need shorter routes with quicker reads to get the ball out quicker or.......we need guys to get WIDE OPEN right away consistently(lol)....or well.....I don't know what??

IF we happen to get some help to get back into the playoff I think we need to get Tua ready just in case. He needs to get split 1st string reps like we expect him to play. Because we really might need him to be able to advance.

I'm not saying start him. But if we are 20-30 minutes into the game and are trailing with the same things going on we need to give the kid a chance to sling it and save our bacon.

I would rather lose going down swinging trying every option available than to lose again because of limitations that have in part caused us to lose 2 other times already.
 
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This is the Blake Sims of 2014 — the proof is available for anyone who wants to look. I’m proud Jalen is our quarterback, but he’s not in Blake’s league yet as a thrower. Maybe in time, perhaps. Tua is far closer to having Sims’ release and instinctive presence in the pocket.

Highlights.





Since Blake Sims name has been brought up I went back and watched highlights of him from several 2014 games. Several things jumped out at me:

1) He got rid of the ball fast. It wasn't always a 1-read play either. That's a myth. I saw him quickly go to the 2nd or 3rd option barring time.

2) He stood tall in the pocket and stepped into a collapsing one and would at times get absolutely blasted as his threw the ball out to his WR.

3) If he did get flushed he kept his eyes downfield continuously scanning for as long as possible looking to throw 1st before running.

4) He didn't just throw deep or short. He hit WR's on slants, digs, curls, and crosses.

5) Cooper wasn't always the 1st read. He might still get the ball but it's because Blake went through a progression and found #9 open.

6) He gave his WR's a chance and trusted them and threw into coverage with 50/50 balls. Cooper made them about 90/10 :wink:

7) He threw 'to a spot' and trusted the WR would be there......he didn't wait for a guy to be WIDE OPEN.


8) He saw mismatches pre-snap and instantly went to them.

Just want to give Blake Sims credit where credit is due. There is a tendency to think 'Cooper made him'. I think they both actually made each other. Blake trusted Cooper and laid the ball out there with beautifully thrown balls (sometimes in 2-3 man coverage) and Cooper rewarded that trust by making incredible plays. It was a two way street.

But as far as this year's team..... I'm not seeing a lot of those above traits listed happening in current games.

We might not have guys wide open right away..... but they could eventually get open or at worst be in man coverage.

But instead of staying in the pocket and taking a lick if need be to get the ball out to them and trust them to make a play we bail after 2-3 seconds and destroy the routes timing.....then WR's are having to finish routes.....see that the QB needs help and start trying to comeback/ad-lib to help him out while he keeps running.

So either we need shorter routes with quicker reads to get the ball out quicker or.......we need guys to get WIDE OPEN right away consistently(lol)....or well.....I don't know what??

IF we happen to get some help to get back into the playoff I think we need to get Tua ready just in case. He needs to get split 1st string reps like we expect him to play. Because we really might need him to be able to advance.

I'm not saying start him. But if we are 20-30 minutes into the game and are trailing with the same things going on we need to give the kid a chance to sling it and save our bacon.

I would rather lose going down swinging trying every option available than to lose again because of limitations that have in part caused us to lose 2 other times already.
 
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I have never been in that camp, though some are. IMO, you would be setting Tua up to fail if you threw him in the fire now given the competition coming up, and you might ruin his confidence forever. The time for consideration of that kind of change is in the off-season.

I have never agreed with this line of thought. Is Tua (or any QB) so fragile that they can't be given a chance? Gosh, what if they fail in the ADay game?
 
I have never agreed with this line of thought. Is Tua (or any QB) so fragile that they can't be given a chance? Gosh, what if they fail in the ADay game?
That's fine, but ask any head coach and they will run off a list of capable passers who lost their confidence because they were forced into action before they were ready. You are suggesting that they would have failed no matter what, and you may be right. But that is not the prevalent though on this.
 

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