No methodology is an unerring crystal ball. But there are tools that can help us see trends, which are indicators. Nothing more. Growth Factor is a staple in the epidemiology tool belt. And in this particular case, using this particular tool, a clear trend is evident.
Nothing can tell us if the trend will continue. There are too many changing factors that can greatly affect it (loosening of distancing, travel restrictions, etc). But the GF trend, which I believe is a positive and direct result of distancing and state/local shutdowns, does continue, barring any new explosive hot spot a la New York, I believe it is very possible that we as a nation will reach the peak of the bell curve in the very near future. That’s not based on hope. That’s based on statistical tools.
I’ve not looked at any particular regional trends (New Jersey, Alabama, etc), nor made any predictions regarding them.
But to each, his or her own. I’m not selling anything.