Russia invades Ukraine (pt II)

[bamaga]

Some feared if Russia was embarrassed on the world stage, he may turn to the option . But would he really use them?

 

[TexasBama]

Well Russia has officially entered Kharkov city center…

Gee these city names are already reminding me of the top 5 places that you don’t want to be in the Second World War.

So no one is under the impression that this is some great feat by the Russian military - From the Belarus border to Kharkov city center is 20 miles.

 

[bamaga]

So no one is under the impression that this is some great feat by the Russian military - From the Belarus border to Kharkov city center is 20 miles.

on BBC they were speaking on this, the local reporter in country said driving down the boulevard is a far cry from controlling the city.

 

[jthomas666]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497778128500006914

So does this mean we can call people "dickheads" now?

 

[TexasBama]

Ukraine war: Belarus poised to declare war

The Ukrainian state security service has officially reported that a rocket attack on Zhytomyr Airport - located some 93 miles west of Kiev - was launched from the territory of Belarus.

www.google.com

 

[TIDE-HSV]

This is what Day 5? It took five days for the Russian Army to get vehicles into Kharkiv? That is not good for the invasion timetable.
Plus driving vehicles through the main boulevards is not controlling the city. I suspect that really controlling will be a lot harder.
Outside of LPR/DPR, Kharkiv is the city that has the highest percentage of Russian-speakers (although maybe Odesa has that "honor.")

I was thinking of those thousands of AK-47s they handed out to all takers. Digesting Kyiv and Kharkiv may be difficult. Incidentally, a Ukrainian on my Facebook feed today said the correct pronunciation is "Kiyeev," two syllables. I wonder if we'll ever get it right...

 

[MobtownK]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497973684308426754

 

[92tide]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497936899356430337

 

[92tide]

vlad's messaging doesn't seem to be too effective

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497989424487014404

 

[Jon]

an excellent resource for checking on some of the wild claims coming from both sides

Documenting and Debunking Dubious Footage from Ukraine’s Frontlines - bellingcat

A number of questionable videos suggesting provocations in eastern Ukraine have appeared online. Bellingcat is looking to track and analyse them.

www.bellingcat.com

 

[Tidewater]

an excellent resource for checking on some of the wild claims coming from both sides

Documenting and Debunking Dubious Footage from Ukraine’s Frontlines - bellingcat

A number of questionable videos suggesting provocations in eastern Ukraine have appeared online. Bellingcat is looking to track and analyse them.

www.bellingcat.com

Those guys are excellent. Really, the best of the best.

 

[TexasBama]

BP Drops Nearly 20% Stake In Russian-Owned Oil Firm After Invasion Of Ukraine

BP referred to Russia’s invasion as “an act of aggression.”

www.forbes.com

 

[Tidewater]

I was thinking of those thousands of AK-47s they handed out to all takers. Digesting Kyiv and Kharkiv may be difficult. Incidentally, a Ukrainian on my Facebook feed today said the correct pronunciation is "Kiyeev," two syllables. I wonder if we'll ever get it right...

A Russophone Ukrainian. No biggie.
A Second World War historian I have mentioned in other context David Stahel.
He points out the standard histories of the Russo-German War of 1941-45 shows maps with huge pincers punching through the defenders' lines and encircling a pocket of defenders (mostly Russians in 1941). The reality on the ground, however, is a bit different. Just because Germans tanks drover over a piece of land and kept on driving does not make that land "controlled by Germany." To control it you have to stay on it. These giant cauldron battles (kesselschlachten) the "arms" of the encircling side were far from hermetically sealed. Tens of thousands of Russians troops simply drove through what on the maps were solid encircling arms.

Likewise, just because Russians vehicles do a "thunder run" through Kharkiv does not mean the Russians control any of the interior of the city.

This is why I could not believe Putin was going to try this crap. 200,000 Russian troops simply cannot occupy 608,000 km2 of Ukrainian territory. (Heck 250,000 Wehrmacht troops could not occupy the 850 km2 of Stalingrad). It simply cannot be done without massive assistance from the Ukrainians and I do not see that coming.
Competent military advisers would have told Putin about the tyranny of distance (and space) and neither Shoigu nor Gerasimov is stupid.

 

[MobtownK]

Sweden breaking long tradition of neutrality.

Sweden to send military aid to Ukraine - PM Andersson

Sweden will send military aid to Ukraine, including anti-tank weapons, helmets and body armour, Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said on Sunday.

www.reuters.com

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Pleitgen just said that the trucks coming out of Ukraine have their bulletproof vest hung in the driver's window, presumably to guard against sniper fire...

 

[TIDE-HSV]

A Russophone Ukrainian. No biggie.
A Second World War historian I have mentioned in other context David Stahel.
He points out the standard histories of the Russo-German War of 1941-45 shows maps with huge pincers punching through the defenders' lines and encircling a pocket of defenders (mostly Russians in 1941). The reality on the ground, however, is a bit different. Just because Germans tanks drover over a piece of land and kept on driving does not make that land "controlled by Germany." To control it you have to stay on it. These giant cauldron battles (kesselschlachten) the "arms" of the encircling side were far from hermetically sealed. Tens of thousands of Russians troops simply drove through what on the maps were solid encircling arms.

Likewise, just because Russians vehicles do a "thunder run" through Kharkiv does not mean the Russians control any of the interior of the city.

This is why I could not believe Putin was going to try this crap. 200,000 Russian troops simply cannot occupy 608,000 km2 of Ukrainian territory. (Heck 250,000 Wehrmacht troops could not occupy the 850 km2 of Stalingrad). It simply cannot be done without massive assistance form the Ukrainians and I do not see that coming.

That raises the question of whether or not Putin was expecting aid from Ukrainians. Also raises the question of Putin's rationality. BTW, the Kyiv pronouncer said she was Ukrainian, raised as such and worked as a professional in Kyiv. Still could have been Russophone, though. That Kesselschlachten tactic worked well for the Wehrmacht until late in the Russian campaign, until Hitler started insisting on it, even when the "Kessel" existed only in his mind...

 

[crimsonaudio]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498015366626385928

 

[TexasBama]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498015366626385928

page doesn't exist?

 

[crimsonaudio]

page doesn't exist?

Here:

 

[TexasBama]

Russia Captures No. 2 Rank Among Foreign Oil Suppliers to U.S.

Russia is supplying more oil to the U.S. than any other foreign producer aside from Canada as American refiners scour the globe for gasoline-rich feedstocks to feed surging motor-fuel demand.

www.bloomberg.com

844,000 barrels a day isn't a whole lot. From the article "..... an ideal feedstock for American refineries accustomed to processing thick, sludgy crude from Venezuela and the Middle East."

Middle East crudes are light. Canada is fairly heavy. Venezuelan is so heavy you have to heat it in the winter just to offload it.

ETA at $100/bbl West Texas will pick up a fair amount of this.