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0-15 After the Third Quarter?

bamanut_aj said:
the stat is correct and it's definitely a problem we need to correct. that's all I really know to say about it. It's definitely an ugly statistic.
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Couldn't have said it better myself.

On a sidenote, I was watching an NFL game - the Bears versus the Seahawks -and the plays that the Bears were using looked exactly like Bama's playbook.

????????????????????
 
bamaslammer I think this stat speaks more to the effects of probation than anything else.
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Probation is suppose to penalize your team by taking away your depth. What does losing in the fourth quarter point to - a lack of depth - probation = lack of depth = teams beat you up in the fourth quarter = pretty straightforward.

Seems pretty logical. There's no conspiracy theory here, there's no magical formula, it's just the facts of our numbers and our depth. And yes, our depth is that bad, just look at other SEC teams with 3rd, 4th, or 5th year people starting in key positions, do you really think that overcoming that type of experience is easy. Give me a break, this is the SEC we're playing in, the fact that we're EVEN CLOSE in the game is a miracle to me.
 
NYBamaFan said:
I found the halftime scores for all but one of the 15 losses where we were trailing going into the 4th under Shula. Can't get the info for the 2003 loss to Ole Miss. Our score is on the left for each game. We were ahead at half 6 of these 14 games...

2003
Oklahoma 3-13
NIU 9-5
Georgia 10-37
LSU 0-17
Auburn 2-18
2004
Arkansas 10-14
USC 3-6
TN 10-14
LSU 10-6
Auburn 6-0
Minn 17-14
2005
Auburn 7-28
2006
Arkansas 10-3
Florida 10-7
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My mistake. Maybe it just seems that way. can I get away with a senility plea?:redface:
 
That was one stunning stat. We need to change that quick! WOW! I did not know. I know you lose when you are behind going into the 4th qtr, but we havn't had any comebacks under Shula?:eek:
 
I guess that means he's 22-3 when leading after the 3rd qtr. Another useless/goofball stat that TV analysts come up with to kill time. You can take stats and say what ever you like with them. Now lets take the stat of lost scholarships over the last nine years and see if anyone has remotely approached what we were hit with and see how they're doing. The problem is that the stat lover will say you are using the lost scholarships "stat" as an "excuse".
 
Why are we 0-15 at the end of the third quarter? My meaningless answer is as follows.

We have not been deep enough athletically to be physical for 4 straight quarters.

I think we are there now and will become more physical as the experience comes to us this year.


RTR!:BigA:
 
THE SKY IS FALLING!! THE SKY IS FALLING!!

This looks much worse than it is. Here are some comparison stats (since 2003).

When behind after 3 quarters:
Alabama's record: 0-15
Auburn's record: 1-7
Florida's record: 2-6
Arkansas's record: 1-17
Ole Miss's record: 2-18

When ahead after 3 quarters:
Alabama's record: 22-2
Auburn's record: 33-1
Florida's record: 27-5
Arkansas's record: 19-1
Ole Miss's record: 14-4

Overall score in 4th quarters: Bama 266 - Opponents 165

Alabama has "lost" only 7 out of 42 fourth quarters since 2003.

I'd say these stats don't look so bad, especially given that this is about the worst possible 3 year period you could compare given the probation effects...

There's nothing to see here, nothing to see here... Everyone please move on to the next doom and gloom thread. You should be able to get a page or two of dire posts in before someone decides to finally take the time to do the research and provide some context.
 
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tidefan39817 said:
bad thing is...I can remember in the 92 season we started raising the four fingers...like every team in the SEC or nation does now. when asked about it one of the defensive guys responded "it means Bama owns the forth quarter, it's time to shut them down"....I think remembering that is one of the things that the 0-16 when trailing after 3 is what bothers me the most.
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Actually, the "four fingers" was started by Alabama players during the 70's when our vastly superior depth usually meant a close game was about to become a blowout during quarter number 4. :BigA:

This has since been adopted all over the country by other teams though the meaning has been changed/corrupted, whatever..:BigA:
 
popechild said:
THE SKY IS FALLING!! THE SKY IS FALLING!!

This looks much worse than it is. Here are some comparison stats (since 2003).

When behind after 3 quarters:
Alabama's record: 0-15
Auburn's record: 1-7
Florida's record: 2-6
Arkansas's record: 1-17
Ole Miss's record: 2-18

When ahead after 3 quarters:
Alabama's record: 22-2
Auburn's record: 33-1
Florida's record: 27-5
Arkansas's record: 19-1
Ole Miss's record: 14-4

Overall score in 4th quarters: Bama 266 - Opponents 165

Alabama has "lost" only 7 out of 42 fourth quarters since 2003.

I'd say these stats don't look so bad, especially given that this is about the worst possible 3 year period you could compare given the probation effects...

There's nothing to see here, nothing to see here... Everyone please move on to the next doom and gloom thread. You should be able to get a page or two of dire posts in before someone decides to finally take the time to do the research and provide some context.
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There's lies, damned lies, and there's statistics.

The worst thing about statistics is that people tend to take them out of context and reach wholly unwarranted conclusions. So when somebody throws 0-15 in your face, the next logical question should be, "Gee, I don't know if that's bad or not. What's normal -- how do other teams do?"

Popechild, you answered my question with great research. Thanks for putting some context around it. 0-15 doesn't look all that different from 1-17 / 2-18. What it really says is that, when a team is ahead after 45 minutes, it's usually because that team is better. I know, I know...what a shocker...the better team usually wins. :rolleyes:

Notice that our record after leading after 3Q is pretty sound, too.
 
A statistic in a vacum does not mean anything. The context allows you to determine the deviation from the statistical norm, and then project whether the statistic may represent a significant trend. Having the records for other programs helps to provide some context, and building a scattergram of each of them using win/loss as the x/y axis would reveal that UA is actually well within the statistical norm. But of course that conclusion wouldn't get the intended reaction. Some of you might want to brush on your college stats if your going to be getting so worked up about them.
 
BamaMobile said:
I guess that means he's 22-3 when leading after the 3rd qtr. Another useless/goofball stat that TV analysts come up with to kill time. You can take stats and say what ever you like with them. Now lets take the stat of lost scholarships over the last nine years and see if anyone has remotely approached what we were hit with and see how they're doing. The problem is that the stat lover will say you are using the lost scholarships "stat" as an "excuse".
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Excellent observation. :p_idea: The problem with stats, as someone said in a post earlier, is that you can make them say ANYTHING when they are not in a proper context. Proper context says that rarely do teams (any teams) make up a deficit in the 4th quarter... most will lose if they have not gained a lead by that time. Thus, stats like this is what media people love to use when they have to pass time or stir up controversy... not that any of the media in our state would do such a thing. :wink:
 
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