Poll: Who will win the 2024 presidential election?

[Go Bama]

See, if you ask me today, I think Harris wins.

I don't know, folks.

I’ve been thinking Harris will win for a while. In 2020, Trump was against early voting. Now, he supports early voting. This makes me think that a lot of the 2024 early voters for Trump, and there have been a lot, did not early vote in 2020. If I’m guessing right, Trump will not have as many Election Day voters as in 2020.

 

[81usaf92]

Heart says anyone but Trump but head says Trump. It will be close

 

[NationalTitles18]

There are some fairly strong signs that Trump has lost about 5-10% of his previous support and that depending on new low propensity voters to turn out for him is a losing strategy.

Hundreds of defectors against Trump in the republican party, including many of his former cabinet members and traditional conservatives who love America, have created a permission structure for mainstream republican voters to not only not vote but also to cross over to vote for Harris.

This, and Trump's meltdown late in the race, has created momentum against him and for Harris.

Take out the trash partisan polls and Harris looks solid.

Pay close attention to some of the underlying numbers, like Harris winning the 65+ crowd and senior women >2:1 and independent women by large margins and Latinos by large margin and retaining support of Black voters near historic levels, and I think it spells doom for Trump's chances and victory for Harris.

And I don't think it's as close as trash partisan polls might make you think.

If Selzer is as spot on as in previous presidential races then Harris wins 7/7 battleground states and Florida, Texas, Iowa, and Ohio are in play. The House turns blue and the Senate does not change hands. IOW, if Selzer is right it's a true blue wave.

Anything can happen and it all comes down to turnout.

ETA: And Harris has a huge advantage in GOTV efforts.

 

[Tideflyer]

Thanks for your participation, Big Joe. There are quite a few theories floating around regarding who will win and why.

One person opined to me a couple weeks back that Trump would pull out the win, due to the Hispanic vote.

I enjoy just watching the race itself...the strategies....the dynamics of it all....regardless of who wins.

And regardless of who my pick is........I'm on record as saying I wish we had better candidates. But we don't so.....gotta pick who we think is best for ourselves and our families.

Pretty much sums me up as well. Obviously could be wrong , but I do believe that if the Republicans ran SOMEBODY, pretty much ANYBODY, that wasn’t as stunningly unlikeable a person for so many people, this wouldn’t be much of a race. I say that because I believe, as in ‘20, that many Harris votes are anti-Trump votes. My wife’s family , for example, will vote for Harris for the same reason they voted for Biden. “ She’s not Donald Trump.” They don’t know, nor do they give a fig, as to her proposed policies.

 

[NationalTitles18]

Dixville, NH votes at midnight in person every election.

The town has six voters - 4 republicans and 2 independents.

Harris and Trump tied 3-3 from that pool of voters, none of whom are registered democrats.

Indications from early voters and from late polling (including Selzer) shows similar voter tendencies away from Trump and toward Harris.

So in this exceedingly small and non-representative sample of voters actually voting, where the rubber meets the road the indications are in line with the voting.

 

[CrimsonJazz]

Pretty much sums me up as well. Obviously could be wrong , but I do believe that if the Republicans ran SOMEBODY, pretty much ANYBODY, that wasn’t as stunningly unlikeable a person for so many people, this wouldn’t be much of a race. I say that because I believe, as in ‘20, that many Harris votes are anti-Trump votes. My wife’s family , for example, will vote for Harris for the same reason they voted for Biden. “ She’s not Donald Trump.” They don’t know, nor do they give a fig, as to her proposed policies.

This is why I'm thinking of writing in the ghost of Constantine. That way, when the wheels start to inevitably fall off (regardless of who wins) I can get a custom T-shirt made that says, "Don't blame me, I voted for Constantine." Just because we're doomed as a nation doesn't mean I can't have fun with it.

 

[DzynKingRTR]

I have no idea who wins.

FYI, If I had been polled after voting, I would have lied because I think it is funny to screw up their numbers and give false hope to the orange one

 

[cdub55]

I’m not sure how Harris could have run a better campaign.

Would be similar to me saying, "I'm not sure Miles College couldn't have played Alabama any better", after we beat them 62-0. She was not a qualified candidate. No Dem considered her one prior to Biden's quick departure. I highly doubt she would have been the candidate if she would have went through the process that typically occurs.

 

[Go Bama]

Would be similar to me saying, "I'm not sure Miles College couldn't have played Alabama any better", after we beat them 62-0. She was not a qualified candidate. No Dem considered her one prior to Biden's quick departure. I highly doubt she would have been the candidate if she would have went through the process that typically occurs.

There are plenty of D’s on this board who consider Harris a qualified candidate. She raised a record amount of money in a short amount of time. The ground swell of support for Harris was unlike anything I’ve seen in my lifetime, and I’ve been voting since 1972.

It is irrelevant whether or not Harris would have won the nomination by going through what you are calling a process that typically occurs. I would argue that Trump should not be a candidate because he’s a sexual predator and an adjudicated criminal, but that is also irrelevant because it’s Election Day and either Harris or Trump is going to win.

 

[Bamaro]

Would be similar to me saying, "I'm not sure Miles College couldn't have played Alabama any better", after we beat them 62-0. She was not a qualified candidate. No Dem considered her one prior to Biden's quick departure. I highly doubt she would have been the candidate if she would have went through the process that typically occurs.

That's why I was hoping for an open convention.

 

[dayhiker]

I don't know who will win, but I know who will lose. The loser will be the United States of America.

Me when I see the outcome of the election: Damn, I was afraid of that.

 

[DzynKingRTR]

I don't know who will win, but I know who will lose. The loser will be the United States of America.

Me when I see the outcome of the election: Damn, I was afraid of that.

I plan on watching What We Do in the Shadows and reading the results tomorrow.

 

[TexasBama]

I plan on watching What We Do in the Shadows .

I love that show

 

[CrimsonJazz]

I just took another quick look at the polls and have come to a conclusion: we should beat LSU.

 

[92tide]

There are plenty of D’s on this board who consider Harris a qualified candidate. She raised a record amount of money in a short amount of time. The ground swell of support for Harris was unlike anything I’ve seen in my lifetime, and I’ve been voting since 1972.

It is irrelevant whether or not Harris would have won the nomination by going through what you are calling a process that typically occurs. I would argue that Trump should not be a candidate because he’s a sexual predator and an adjudicated criminal, but that is also irrelevant because it’s Election Day and either Harris or Trump is going to win.

there seems to be a lot of consternation that their attempts to wave their hands around defining her fell flat

 

[92tide]

That's why I was hoping for an open convention.

that was never going to happen

 

[UAH]

There are plenty of D’s on this board who consider Harris a qualified candidate. She raised a record amount of money in a short amount of time. The ground swell of support for Harris was unlike anything I’ve seen in my lifetime, and I’ve been voting since 1972.

It is irrelevant whether or not Harris would have won the nomination by going through what you are calling a process that typically occurs. I would argue that Trump should not be a candidate because he’s a sexual predator and an adjudicated criminal, but that is also irrelevant because it’s Election Day and either Harris or Trump is going to win.

I feel that fate or combination of circumstances led to a candidate who came of age before our very eyes. I am certain to have policy disagreements. Most of us always do! I don't know of another candidate who is better prepared.

 

[UAH]

Looking back on the Kamala campaign with Halo by Beyonce

 

[Tideflyer]

I do find it interesting that a candidate for the office of leader of the free world can go from being the very first primary candidate to drop out of a presidential primary four years ago to being the greatest thing in their party since sliced bread, even if it is by default. My, how things do change!

 

[CrimsonJazz]

I do find it interesting that a candidate for the office of leader of the free world can go from being the very first primary candidate to drop out of a presidential primary four years ago to being the greatest thing in their party since sliced bread, even if it is by default. My, how things do change!

I think lessons have been learned in this election cycle....at least I hope so. I guess we'll know in a few days after the lawsuits and countersuits have been settled.