Is there a scenario where we still back into the playoffs?

[Cruloc]

I'm getting confused about the potential bye teams. If Clemson wins I initially thought they get the bye but now I think some of you are saying that only happens if Boise loses. If Boise wins then the Big 12 champ, not Clemson gets the 4th bye leaving Clemson as basically an at-large team. Is that correct?

The top 4 ranked conference champs get the 4 top seeds. The next highest ranked conference champ will sneak in at 12.

SMU wins and Boise wins.....SMU 3, Boise 4
Boise wins and SMU loses.....Boise 3, Big 12 4th, Clemson 12
SMU loses and Boise loses.....Big 12 3rd, Clemson 4th, UNLV 12.

All assuming Big 10 and SEC are 1st and 2nd regardless of game outcomes.

Notre Dame is stuck at 5th since they can claim no conference title.

 

[colbysullivan]

The top 4 ranked conference champs get the 4 top seeds. The next highest ranked conference champ will sneak in at 12.

SMU wins and Boise wins.....SMU 3, Boise 4
Boise wins and SMU loses.....Boise 3, Big 12 4th, Clemson 12
SMU loses and Boise loses.....Big 12 3rd, Clemson 4th, UNLV 12.

All assuming Big 10 and SEC are 1st and 2nd regardless of game outcomes.

Notre Dame is stuck at 5th since they can claim no conference title.

There’s no stipulation that says the 5th conference champion has to be seeded 12th.

 

[B1GTide]

There’s no stipulation that says the 5th conference champion has to be seeded 12th.

Agreed - their seed is based entirely on their ranking.

 

[PA Tide Fan]

The top 4 ranked conference champs get the 4 top seeds. The next highest ranked conference champ will sneak in at 12.

SMU wins and Boise wins.....SMU 3, Boise 4
Boise wins and SMU loses.....Boise 3, Big 12 4th, Clemson 12
SMU loses and Boise loses.....Big 12 3rd, Clemson 4th, UNLV 12.

All assuming Big 10 and SEC are 1st and 2nd regardless of game outcomes.

Notre Dame is stuck at 5th since they can claim no conference title.

Don't you think it's possible though that if #17 Clemson beats #8 SMU they could jump the Big 12 champ since Arizona State and Iowa State were only ranked 15 and 16, especially if the CFP committee thought SMU was better than either Iowa State or Arizona State.

 

[Cruloc]

There’s no stipulation that says the 5th conference champion has to be seeded 12th.

No, but with the Arizona State, Iowa State, Clemson, and UNLV all below 12.....depending on some outcomes, they'll get in at 12.

Or they'll drop us to 12 and put them in at 11.

 

[B1GTide]

Don't you think it's possible though that if #17 Clemson beats #8 SMU they could jump the Big 12 champ since Arizona State and Iowa State were only ranked 15 and 16, especially if the CFP committee thought SMU was better than either Iowa State or Arizona State.

I think the ACC champ will get that bye.

 

[colbysullivan]

No, but with the Arizona State, Iowa State, Clemson, and UNLV all below 12.....depending on some outcomes, they'll get in at 12.

Or they'll drop us to 12 and put them in at 11.

Ahh, you were talking specifically about this year. Gotcha.

 

[BamaMoon]

I just hope it’s us Vs Notre Dame. Then SMU. I’ll take that all day long and twice on Sunday.

I mean, if there's a path to the final 4 for us, that's it. Get that far and anything can happen.

 

[CrimSonami]

I have ZERO confidence in this committee. Even less than during the 4-team era. Just because you win your CCG doesn't necessarily qualify as 1 of the top 5 teams. No way SMU or Clemson should be seeded above TX or GA regardless of the SEC-CG outcome. Weaker conference teams with lower SOS SHOULD NOT be rewarded a "TOP TIER" place in the bracket. Every system is going to have its flaws and challenges but this format invites chaos and allows too many selective "DATA POINTS" to justify opinion for MOST DESERVING as opposed to true BEST TEAMS.

 

[RollTideMo]

Thinking that if Clemson beats SMU, it would need to be at least by 3 touchdowns for us to have total confidence that the CFP committee will definitely take SMU out of the playoff race. Anything lower than that, I'll be nervous......

 

[BamaMoon]

Very true. The missing piece has been the deep shot chunk plays. They have almost dried up completely.

To my untrained eye, containing our offense isn’t just stopping the Milroe run, it’s defending the deep shots. Like him or not, that’s a strength of #4.

Which means we need guys to separate and catch the ball, and the O-Line to hold up. And my gosh, Jalen, please climb the pocket.

As badly as JM frustrates me, he has improved his short range passing game. FWIW, I don't think he/OC had a choice because everyone was sitting back with 2 safeties, but if the short passing game to the running backs and tight ends can be implemented along with a few deep shots, if JM has a good day, we can probably beat anybody in this 12 team playoff.

 

[Power Eye]

JNME81 thoughts: We want SMU to win to take away uncertainty for Alabama. If Clemson does win, I don't think SMU will get in playoff based on strength of schedule. Alabama might drop to #12 or #13.

So bottom line We want Boise State to win and SMU to win by 10 points.

If you don’t think SMU is in with a loss, then who would jump us in the rankings to drop us to 12 or 13 because I don’t think it will be Clemson, UNLV, or the Big 12 winner. They’re all several places behind us and teams that don’t play this weekend.

 

[jjv0004]

Bama needs SMU to win and they are in. That simple.

 

[JustNeedMe81]

If you don’t think SMU is in with a loss, then who would jump us in the rankings to drop us to 12 or 13 because I don’t think it will be Clemson, UNLV, or the Big 12 winner. They’re all several places behind us and teams that don’t play this weekend.

This is clear:
Also based on Selection Committee Chair, Warde Manuel's comments, the Crimson Tide cannot get jumped by the teams just below it in the rankings. "Those who are not playing, we will not adjust those teams because we don’t have another data point. Any team that isn’t playing right now, we don’t have a data point. That is set upon how we see them going into the final week- champion week. The teams that are not playing cannot be adjusted in terms of where they are compared to the teams that are playing."

So we know based on that statement: Miami, Ole Miss, and South Carolina are out of Playoff contention.

What we do know:
There is a good chance SMU could drop below Alabama... depending how the game goes. the winner of SMU-Clemson gets in the playoff. Simple as that.


Two Scenario that helps Alabama:
Blowout win by Clemson
SMU beating Clemson.

Alabama should stay #11... That's it.

 

[B1GTide]

I have ZERO confidence in this committee. Even less than during the 4-team era. Just because you win your CCG doesn't necessarily qualify as 1 of the top 5 teams. No way SMU or Clemson should be seeded above TX or GA regardless of the SEC-CG outcome. Weaker conference teams with lower SOS SHOULD NOT be rewarded a "TOP TIER" place in the bracket. Every system is going to have its flaws and challenges but this format invites chaos and allows too many selective "DATA POINTS" to justify opinion for MOST DESERVING as opposed to true BEST TEAMS.

Your complaint has nothing to do with the committee. The 4 byes are built into the contract.

 

[KrAzY3]

Don't you think it's possible though that if #17 Clemson beats #8 SMU they could jump the Big 12 champ since Arizona State and Iowa State were only ranked 15 and 16, especially if the CFP committee thought SMU was better than either Iowa State or Arizona State.

If I was the committee I would give some thought to placing Clemson ahead of SMU as well in that scenario. They won't do it, but it probably should be a consideration especially if you take into account that two of Clemson's losses came to team's ranked higher than anyone SMU has played (Georgia and South Carolina).

 

[JustNeedMe81]

Right now, and this is strictly my opinion: I think some of us are somewhat overreaching and overreacting on what we read/hear on what Committee plans to do with ranking after Saturday. Some of opinions aren't making sense. At the end of the day, I think Alabama will get in no matter what happens on Saturday. If Alabama doesn't get in, then okay great. We got a bowl game to prepare for. That's my mindset.

IMO, getting in playoff will help Alabama coaching staff and players a lot. Beside not playing this week is essentially a bye week, and that goes long way for our players to get more healthier and get offense in sync more.

 

[CrimSonami]

Your complaint has nothing to do with the committee. The 4 byes are built into the contract.

Okay. Understood. But it's still a flawed system IMO. If the committee is bound to that then so be it. But I won't be surprised if they deviate from the statement that they won't change the order of those outside the CCG's.

 

[cbi1972]

What happens if UT crushes UGA? How far does UGA drop with 3 losses?

Good question. My guess would be not too far since they have good wins

The idea that a conference championship loser would not be "unduly" punished was for the Big 10 and SEC championship games. Everyone playing in those games is in, win or lose.

ACC loser can still get left out.

 

[CrimsonNagus]

One thing to remember is that the rankings and seedings do not have to match. ASU and ISU are currently 15 and 16. No matter who wins, does their rankings even change much. Maybe ASU could move to 14 or 13 but I doubt it. I think the winner will be ranked 15 in the final CFP poll.

Clemson is currently #17. How many spots is a win over SMU worth? Best case for them, IMO, is moving to 13 or 14 and they will probably remain behind SMU in the rankings. I don't see them jumping all the way from 17 to something like 10. Shoot, I wouldn't be completely shocked if they kept Clemson behind ASU, if they both win.

If UNLV loses, it’s out of Playoff contention.

The fact that we are here and the #15, 16, 17 and 20th ranked teams are still in contention for a playoff spot is ridiculous. Back when we had the BCS, when we had the 4 team playoff, no one in their right mind ever argued that the 15, 16, 17 and 20th ranked teams should have a shot at a national title. When this thing expands to 16 teams and beyond, we going to be talking about unranked teams getting a shot. How stupid. UNLV should not even be in the playoffs with a win, the auto-bids have got to go.