Offseason thoughts on the state of Alabama football -- 2026
Apologies for the length. So many things to think about, most of which are intertwined. As much as we'd like it to be solvable with a sound bite, it’s just not simple.
Is DeBoer the right guy?
I think so.
But if you think he’s not, you know my next question: Who not named Anybody would (1) be an upgrade significant enough to justify both DeBoer’s buyout, the new coach’s buyout, and a laundry list of other buyouts, and (2) would realistically come?
Yeah, I’d rather have Kirby, Dan Lanning or Ryan Day. They’re not coming. So who?
Before you counter that the buyout wouldn’t be as big if Byrne hadn’t extended him this past spring, consider that under his initial contract, his buyout would still have been over $50 million. Then there’s the buyout of the new coach’s contract wherever he is now. And the staff. And the old and new staff’s buyouts. And the loss of Courtney Morgan. And, and, and.
But most important “and” is the Auburn-esque turnover and turmoil. Which brings me back to the question, “If not DeBoer, who?”
DeBoer has won big wherever he’s been. I do think the physicality of the SEC surprised him. Not the physicality of any one team, but the week-in-week-out grind. Everybody is strong, fast, and beyond bruising. But to his credit, and as evidenced by both changes in OL coaching and the heavy emphasis in the portal on down linemen, he saw that and is taking steps to fix the problem.
I still have some questions about S&C, so I have my eye on potential involuntary turnover there. No inside information, but I think Ballou is on a short leash.
Forgotten Circumstances
We tend to forget that Saban’s last three teams weren’t up to his own earlier standard. And they were steadily deteriorating year to year to year, especially on both sides of the LOS. If not for Bryce Young, we’d have lost several more games.
We also forget that DeBoer lost about 40 players from Saban’s last team. That includes QB Julian Sayin and DB Caleb Downs, both of whom went to tOSU and were All-Americans. Downs was college football’s defensive player of the year. Think we might not have lost to Vandy or a couple of others with those guys on the field?
Recruiting, Roster Building & "Yeah, but...."
When DeBoer was hired, the only concern I had was recruiting. As in, whether DeBoer could recruit in the deep south. His first two classes, both Top 5, answered that question positively.
The class that will sign in December of 2026 and February of 2027 is not living up to that standard.
Rather than yell and scream and stomp and burp about it, we need to answer, "Why is the 2026/2027 recruiting class not meeting prior standards?"
So many “Yeah, but…” points here.
There’s no question that the current class is several cuts below previous ones. We’ve missed out on a number of high-priority targets and have had to settle for developmental projects. Guys who will not realistically contribute until their Junior year.
Yeah, but DeBoer is doing a great job retaining players. Not many are hitting the portal. Look at Indiana to see how much player retention and time in the system matter.
Yeah, but due to today’s essentially non-existent eligibility rules, Indiana had full-grown men playing college ball. I heard on the Childers / Neuheisel show that last year’s Indiana team was older on average than last year’s Green Bay Packers. Match a 20 year old with 2 years in a college S&C program up against a 25 year old with 7 years, and what do you expect to happen?
So again, why are we missing on players we should get?
Money & More "Yeah, but..."
I don’t think Kalen DeBoer and Courtney Morgan suddenly got lazy or forgot how to recruit. I think the clear answer is money.
I’ve seen where Alabama’s roster spending was in the Top 5 in college football. I’m not sure I believe that.
Texas, aTm, Texas Tech, Oregon, LSU, tOSU, Michigan and Indiana all have the collegiate equivalent of owners – who aren’t constrained by legally-enforceable NFL rules on how they can spend their money. We might be in the Top 10…..maybe.
Alabama simply doesn’t have the financial resources that the above schools do. We just don’t.
You can scream that that’s not fair or that it shouldn’t matter. And you’d be right. But unless and until there’s some Congressional action (an anti-trust exemption, specific legislation, or a players’ union and CBA), you’re yelling at clouds.
Based on the combination of low roster turnover and a falloff in HS recruiting, and with exactly zero inside information, the logical conclusion is that we’re choosing to spend money on players already in the program.
If that’s right, DeBoer and Morgan have made the conscious decision to prioritize development and retention of proven players – supplemented with carefully chosen transfers – over talented but unproven HS players with big star ratings.
Yeah, but you have to have talent. You can’t develop what just isn’t there. Yeah, but stars don’t always turn into performance. Look at aTm’s class from Jimbo’s next to last year there. Yeah, but Saban’s best teams were littered with 4 and 5 stars.
And the biggest yeah-but: We just don’t have the money to win 10 – 20 bidding wars every year to recruit a roster full of 4 and 5 star guys out of HS.
OK, So What Should We Do While Waiting on Congress?
So how do you counter when you can’t just write endless checks?
You do what DeBoer and Morgan are doing. You reward performance by spending on the existing roster, instead of spending big bucks on unproven newcomers. You rely on your own evaluations, not star ratings, to identify (1) which newcomers are worth getting into a bidding war over, and (2) who you can develop. And you know you'd best be right on those evaluations.
When you have less money than some of your championship competitors, and splurge on a highly-touted player who doesn’t pan out for whatever reason, that’s doubly painful -- money thatyou really can’t spare is gone and you have nothing to show for it. Far more painful than signing an unheralded prospect who doesn’t develop as you had hoped he would.
Greg Byrne is the best AD in college sports. When the Michigan job came open, DeBoer could easily have gotten it if he'd wanted it. Byrne surveyed the coaching landscape and opted to double down on DeBoer.
I’m satisfied DeBoer is the best option who would realistically come to Tuscaloosa.
My real fear is that he gets frustrated by the combination of (1) limited funds vs. at least three other SEC teams (maybe more), (2) Alabama supporters’ preference for yelling at clouds vs. kicking in cash, and (3) those same supporters’ disenchantment over Ws and Ls, egged on by talking heads and ink-stained wretches – looking at you, Finebaum and Goodman.
One of the jobs with fewer constraints comes open, and he takes it. We lose half the team or more to the portal AND Courtney Morgan AND start all over with a new coach, GM, and staff.
What do you think the following several seasons look like after that?
Frustrating though it may be, and for a lot of reasons, I think we need to stay the course.
What do you think and why?
Apologies for the length. So many things to think about, most of which are intertwined. As much as we'd like it to be solvable with a sound bite, it’s just not simple.
Is DeBoer the right guy?
I think so.
But if you think he’s not, you know my next question: Who not named Anybody would (1) be an upgrade significant enough to justify both DeBoer’s buyout, the new coach’s buyout, and a laundry list of other buyouts, and (2) would realistically come?
Yeah, I’d rather have Kirby, Dan Lanning or Ryan Day. They’re not coming. So who?
Before you counter that the buyout wouldn’t be as big if Byrne hadn’t extended him this past spring, consider that under his initial contract, his buyout would still have been over $50 million. Then there’s the buyout of the new coach’s contract wherever he is now. And the staff. And the old and new staff’s buyouts. And the loss of Courtney Morgan. And, and, and.
But most important “and” is the Auburn-esque turnover and turmoil. Which brings me back to the question, “If not DeBoer, who?”
DeBoer has won big wherever he’s been. I do think the physicality of the SEC surprised him. Not the physicality of any one team, but the week-in-week-out grind. Everybody is strong, fast, and beyond bruising. But to his credit, and as evidenced by both changes in OL coaching and the heavy emphasis in the portal on down linemen, he saw that and is taking steps to fix the problem.
I still have some questions about S&C, so I have my eye on potential involuntary turnover there. No inside information, but I think Ballou is on a short leash.
Forgotten Circumstances
We tend to forget that Saban’s last three teams weren’t up to his own earlier standard. And they were steadily deteriorating year to year to year, especially on both sides of the LOS. If not for Bryce Young, we’d have lost several more games.
We also forget that DeBoer lost about 40 players from Saban’s last team. That includes QB Julian Sayin and DB Caleb Downs, both of whom went to tOSU and were All-Americans. Downs was college football’s defensive player of the year. Think we might not have lost to Vandy or a couple of others with those guys on the field?
Recruiting, Roster Building & "Yeah, but...."
When DeBoer was hired, the only concern I had was recruiting. As in, whether DeBoer could recruit in the deep south. His first two classes, both Top 5, answered that question positively.
The class that will sign in December of 2026 and February of 2027 is not living up to that standard.
Rather than yell and scream and stomp and burp about it, we need to answer, "Why is the 2026/2027 recruiting class not meeting prior standards?"
So many “Yeah, but…” points here.
There’s no question that the current class is several cuts below previous ones. We’ve missed out on a number of high-priority targets and have had to settle for developmental projects. Guys who will not realistically contribute until their Junior year.
Yeah, but DeBoer is doing a great job retaining players. Not many are hitting the portal. Look at Indiana to see how much player retention and time in the system matter.
Yeah, but due to today’s essentially non-existent eligibility rules, Indiana had full-grown men playing college ball. I heard on the Childers / Neuheisel show that last year’s Indiana team was older on average than last year’s Green Bay Packers. Match a 20 year old with 2 years in a college S&C program up against a 25 year old with 7 years, and what do you expect to happen?
So again, why are we missing on players we should get?
Money & More "Yeah, but..."
I don’t think Kalen DeBoer and Courtney Morgan suddenly got lazy or forgot how to recruit. I think the clear answer is money.
I’ve seen where Alabama’s roster spending was in the Top 5 in college football. I’m not sure I believe that.
Texas, aTm, Texas Tech, Oregon, LSU, tOSU, Michigan and Indiana all have the collegiate equivalent of owners – who aren’t constrained by legally-enforceable NFL rules on how they can spend their money. We might be in the Top 10…..maybe.
Alabama simply doesn’t have the financial resources that the above schools do. We just don’t.
You can scream that that’s not fair or that it shouldn’t matter. And you’d be right. But unless and until there’s some Congressional action (an anti-trust exemption, specific legislation, or a players’ union and CBA), you’re yelling at clouds.
Based on the combination of low roster turnover and a falloff in HS recruiting, and with exactly zero inside information, the logical conclusion is that we’re choosing to spend money on players already in the program.
If that’s right, DeBoer and Morgan have made the conscious decision to prioritize development and retention of proven players – supplemented with carefully chosen transfers – over talented but unproven HS players with big star ratings.
Yeah, but you have to have talent. You can’t develop what just isn’t there. Yeah, but stars don’t always turn into performance. Look at aTm’s class from Jimbo’s next to last year there. Yeah, but Saban’s best teams were littered with 4 and 5 stars.
And the biggest yeah-but: We just don’t have the money to win 10 – 20 bidding wars every year to recruit a roster full of 4 and 5 star guys out of HS.
OK, So What Should We Do While Waiting on Congress?
So how do you counter when you can’t just write endless checks?
You do what DeBoer and Morgan are doing. You reward performance by spending on the existing roster, instead of spending big bucks on unproven newcomers. You rely on your own evaluations, not star ratings, to identify (1) which newcomers are worth getting into a bidding war over, and (2) who you can develop. And you know you'd best be right on those evaluations.
When you have less money than some of your championship competitors, and splurge on a highly-touted player who doesn’t pan out for whatever reason, that’s doubly painful -- money thatyou really can’t spare is gone and you have nothing to show for it. Far more painful than signing an unheralded prospect who doesn’t develop as you had hoped he would.
Greg Byrne is the best AD in college sports. When the Michigan job came open, DeBoer could easily have gotten it if he'd wanted it. Byrne surveyed the coaching landscape and opted to double down on DeBoer.
I’m satisfied DeBoer is the best option who would realistically come to Tuscaloosa.
My real fear is that he gets frustrated by the combination of (1) limited funds vs. at least three other SEC teams (maybe more), (2) Alabama supporters’ preference for yelling at clouds vs. kicking in cash, and (3) those same supporters’ disenchantment over Ws and Ls, egged on by talking heads and ink-stained wretches – looking at you, Finebaum and Goodman.
One of the jobs with fewer constraints comes open, and he takes it. We lose half the team or more to the portal AND Courtney Morgan AND start all over with a new coach, GM, and staff.
What do you think the following several seasons look like after that?
Frustrating though it may be, and for a lot of reasons, I think we need to stay the course.
What do you think and why?
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