Justice Antonin Scalia's death is a test for the American political system — a test it's unlikely to pass.
The test is simple. Can divided government actually govern, given today's more polarized parties? In the past, it could... But moments after reports first filtered out of Scalia's death, and with no knowledge of who President Obama planned to name as Scalia's replacement, senior Republicans said they wouldn't even consider an appointment from Obama, despite the fact that he has almost a year left in his presidency.
The American people, of course, already did have a voice in the selection of Scalia's replacement. They reelected Barack Obama to office in 2012. But they also made Mitch McConnell majority leader in 2014.
These elections, carried out in different years, midst different electorates, and using different electoral systems, are equally valid. Obama and McConnell's claims of democratic legitimacy are simultaneously correct. The American people speak with a divided voice, and our system carries no mechanism for resolving their confusion.
This is why political systems like ours rarely survive. Indeed, as the late sociologist Juan Linz wrote, "aside from the United States, only Chile has managed a century and a half of relatively undisturbed constitutional continuity under presidential government — but Chilean democracy broke down in the 1970s."
The reason for the American political system's strength, Linz argued, was that our parties were unusual in that they lacked clear ideological distinction — both the Democratic and Republican parties contained both conservatives and liberals. For a system that required compromise to function, that made compromise unusually easy to find.
But in recent decades our political parties have become sharply distinct, with liberals clustered in the Democratic Party and conservatives clustered in the Republican Party. The result is a level of party polarization American politics simply hasn't seen before.