Verbose myself, I don't mind this, and I concur with you regarding the bumper sticker mentality of Twitter discussions, although yes, there are limits.
My point on the state of college football is being missed. It is not about who gets to feed at the "Big Boy Table". Someone talked about what about Alabama's dreams verses FSU. The consequence for Alabama is they wait a year and they are the favorites next year. A Cincinnati, TCU, MSU, ND, and yes FSU, might be there only shot forever. If that team for that year has no chance ever, what is the point?
I know you're new here so you cannot possibly know this, but this issue HAS been addressed on the board overall by me. If I'm reading you correctly, you're right that there's a lot of illusion involved, but here's a brutal reality for you since I covered this several years ago: since 1936, only 29 teams have won national championships in what I would call the "recognized" categories of AP/UPI/BCS/CFP. No team since Florida in 1996 has won their FIRST national championship, so every single winner since then has been a repeat champion; if Alabama had gone 0-6 in the national title games they'd won under Saban, not a single team that beat us would have won their first title. In fact, since Florida became the last to do it, the only teams to make the championship game that could have added to that overall number are Virginia Tech and Oregon (twice).
When you cut through the programs who won championships long ago either under completely different circumstances or flukes that only happened because there was a poll split at the top (like 1990 and 1991), there are only about 15 teams every year who can begin the season with a realistic chance of thinking "we might be in the picture at the end of the year."
When Bill McCartney's unbeaten Colorado team wilted and lost to Notre Dame at the end of the 1989 season, he was bothered by the fact you rarely get a chance to win a national championship. The next year, Colorado set a goal: win the Big 8 and win the Orange Bowl - achievable goals. He noted that you CANNOT plan to win a national championship because there are way too many variables involved and in this sense CFB more resembles the glory days of winning a single NASCAR race, where you hope everything works out and you do what you can to put yourself in position to hope you can close the deal.
TCU did win a national championship back in the Davey O'Brien days, but they cannot realistically look at any season with that as a goal. Alabama kinda upset the applecart with that becoming the stated goal when Coach Bryant arrived - and won 3 in 5 years - but that's not reasonable for most schools.
This board seems to be chortling at FSU's woes and threats of leaving the ACC.
That's because FSU:
a) was invited to the join the SEC back in 1990
b) refused it by saying they didn't want to join a conference
c) joined the ACC and became the Cosmo Kramer class karate champion
d) had a legendary coach admit he dodged the SEC due to the brutality of schedule
We suspected as much when they ducked out back in 1990. Same with Miami. It's no accident their glory days suddenly ended the way they did. When you can't cherry pick your spots and make sure you have a week off before each of your brutal games - go look very closely at the 1986 Miam schedule. They had two tough games - Oklahoma and Florida State - and a week off before each of them when they other team played a game. They pulled that same ruse time and again where RARELY did Miami play two decent teams in a row.
The chuckling at FSU is the residue of 33 years of them lying about why they avoided the SEC. Had they joined the conference, we wouldn't be having this conversation because they'd be a 7-5 also-ran.
It is not FSU that I am concerned with. The problem in my opinion is every fan base of a team with a chance is rudely aware that their chances of being invited to the dance is ZERO. That means every team that wants to be a "Big Boy" , has to be in the SEC or the Big10.
But this is already known. Trust me, the fans of Minnesota or Mississippi State never give any thought to "I think we can win the national title this year," they just hope for a 10-win season and a great bowl game.
College football works because this paradox has been perpetuated by delusions and breadcrumbs thrown to the also-rans.
Yeah, but you left out the part where the also-rans called all the shots from 1951 until the Supreme Court ruled the NZAA was violating antitrust laws. They had the numbers and could prevent anything from happening by virtue of their numbers - but then it was still, "Hey, send us a check!"
Boise State brought this out in 2010, when they'd cry hysterically about how all the big teams were afraid of them but out of one side of their mouths, they wanted to be treated like a Blue Blood - but out the other, they wanted to be paid like they were Mercer.
They needed to pick a lane, they tried to straddle the middle, and the big boys told them to go home.
If all of the other conferences are frozen out, college football does become the NFL. Its two conferences. Basketball has the tournament. It's beautiful because teams and fans can dream. Butler almost beat Duke. Davidson and Loyola of Chicago made the Final4.
And that gives the game away: we're back to the fantasy of football's "Bad News Bears," something that has never happened and never will due to the brutality of the game. Why did Butler almost beat Duke? Largely because when you have a sport where 4 of the starters play together for four years, they build chemistry while Duke has become this one-and-done factory along with the other basketball powers.
I admit that I am speculating, and this is an opinion. I have no factual basis for my points. And to be honest I would rather be wrong. The NFL guaranteed popularity by guaranteeing a level field in all endeavors. How long can college football guarantee popularity if the act of a game becomes just a ritual for a 100+ programs?
The brutal reality is that there shouldn't be any more than 64 teams max at the top level of college football. Nobody wants to say that, but it's the truth. And that's only because the 15 teams that have a shot at the title need to fill out their schedules.
Bear in mind, the NFL holds an equal draft that is designed to create parity. Unless we want to limit the 5-stars a team can sign, this isn't going to happen.
There is an answer, and it is competition. It may be that it is enough for Auburn to take a shot at Alabama or MSU vs UM, or UF verses FSU. Never mind National Championships. Beating your rival may be good enough. Regardless of my long-winded prose, college football may perpetuate in its own paradoxical way.
The problem with all this is that at the end of the day, we're still talking about ALLEGED student athletes. The whole reason payments to players had to be hidden is because of the obvious advantage a Texas or Alabama would hold over an Iowa State or Georgia Tech.