CFP Scenario - #1 - What would you do?

B1GTide

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One more thought came into my mind, during this fun, and interesting debate: What if a 2 loss Auburn goes to the SEC title game (gag), and defeats UGA to win the SEC title. Do they get in? A 2 loss LSU team got to play for the title in the old BCS days, 2007, the weird year it was. And they won it all.

I see no scenario, assuming Cincy, OU, and OSU win out and win their conference title games, where 2, 1 loss SEC teams can get into the CFP. No scenario. It's either Georgia, undefeated and conference champ, or Alabama, 1 loss and conference champ. Auburn is the fly in the ointment in my scenario, as we stand today. Not considering even, that the BIG 10 still has 2 undefeated teams (UM, MSU), though that will settle soon.
Auburn gets left out. It has happened before in the CFP.
 

selmaborntidefan

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This is interesting, and somewhat likely. I start with the undefeateds, and review who they've beaten, then look at how far above in the final official poll they are, from the first 1 loss team.

Right now, if UGA were to win out, then lose to Alabama, Cincy would move to #1, assuming they are still undefeated, and I think they will be. They are IN. They get in not bc of the strength of their schedule, but because they won all their games, and they are several slots ahead of the next one loss team.
Now...this is how YOU would do it personally, right? Not predicting the committee I hope.

Right now, if Oklahoma wins out, wins their conference, they are IN. Again, not because of the strength of schedule or margin of victory, but because they are undefeated, and they sit a spot or two above the highest ranked 1 loss team.
Oklahoma would get in because:
a) they're unbeaten
b) they're Oklahoma

Wouldn't have jack squat to do with who they beat.


Now, we get to the 1 loss teams scenarios. If Ohio State wins out, and assume they are ranked 3, 4, or 5, because UGA isn't going to fall far should they lose to Alabama (which I do not think it likely they lose to the Tide, sad to say), then Ohio State is the next team in line around Georgia, either a spot above or a spot below. So, I take Ohio State.
How do you justify taking Ohio State over one-loss Oregon?

(I'm not saying there isn't one; I'm saying how do you do it?)

Now, the UA/UGA winner: what to do? Assume both would have 1 loss, and Alabama the conference champion. I feel compelled to honor the conference title of the SEC, with a single loss on their record, to a good team, possibly highly ranked Texas A&M.

So, in your scenario, my CFP is 1 Cincinnati, 2 Oklahoma, 3 Ohio State, and 4 Alabama.
OK, gotcha.

Because your scenario ain't what the committee is gonna do (most likely).

Georgia, by virtue of that 1 loss and not being the conference champion, but losing it as the last game of the season, is left out. It doesn't seem "fair" to the great team that UGA is, to leave them off, but it strengthens the case for an expanded playoff, which I'm indifferent about.
Respectfully - I'll never understand THIS argument. Wanna make the SEC a preliminary exhibition?
Expand the playoff, and that's exactly what will happen.


I actually think that my 1 and 2 is going to happen. Easy peasy.
You actually think Cincinnati is going to wind up #1?????????

But, I feel like OSU and Alabama both are not their best versions of themselves, and will not win their respective conferences. So, I'll keep Georgia as it stands today, as the most realistic 1 seed in the CFP, then Cincy, then OU, and #4 is literally anyone's guess. The Big 10 is far from settled. The PAC 12 is a long way away from having one of their conference champs actually be ranked anywhere near the top 4 teams. The ACC is an afterthought, and Wake Forest may argue that they are deserving, should they run the table and win it, which I also don't think is likely.

Per usual, this stuff comes into greater clarity in the last month of the season.
A decent enough post that gives us scenarios to consider.

But unless we have some magical lightning like in 2007, Cincinnati is only going to the playoff as ticket buying spectators. They've played - and beaten - absolutely nobody of consequence.

Notre Dame?
An Irish team that barely survived a mediocre FSU team.
Barely survived....(does a double take)....TOLEDO???? (Not like Saban was coaching them)
Struggled against a mid-level at best Purdue team (the scoreboard looks worse than the game was)

There's not a single team on their schedule that THIS YEAR'S Alabama team wouldn't blow right off the field. Including Notre Dame.
 
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crimsonaudio

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It really boils down to this - do you believe the CFPs job is to:
1- crown a NC via tournament, not worrying about who is truly 'the best'
2- determine (as well as they can) who the best teams are based on the data to the NC is considered the best team in the country?

Those wanting expansion or inclusion of G5 teams are those who consider the NC the result of option 1 above. I've long been a fan of option 2 - it's what the BCS was built to do (and generally did) and what the CFP has done as well.

If a G5 team wants inclusion, play a real schedule. Otherwise, sit back down at the kid's table.
 

B1GTide

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I think that Cincy will have to play SMU twice within a few weeks. I wonder if they will be able to beat them twice. And, even if they do, they knock SMU out of the top 25 leaving ND as their only ranked opponent.

That said, we will know a lot more about where the committee stands on this soon. I expect the committee to rank Cincy 5th.
 

JustNeedMe81

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Cincy was ranked between 7 and 9 all season long in playoff ranking. So they earned the right to be in playoff should they win it all. They won't be left out.
 

Toddrn

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This is interesting, and somewhat likely. I start with the undefeateds, and review who they've beaten, then look at how far above in the final official poll they are, from the first 1 loss team.

Right now, if UGA were to win out, then lose to Alabama, Cincy would move to #1, assuming they are still undefeated, and I think they will be. They are IN. They get in not bc of the strength of their schedule, but because they won all their games, and they are several slots ahead of the next one loss team.

Right now, if Oklahoma wins out, wins their conference, they are IN. Again, not because of the strength of schedule or margin of victory, but because they are undefeated, and they sit a spot or two above the highest ranked 1 loss team. Which would be:

Now, we get to the 1 loss teams scenarios. If Ohio State wins out, and assume they are ranked 3, 4, or 5, because UGA isn't going to fall far should they lose to Alabama (which I do not think it likely they lose to the Tide, sad to say), then Ohio State is the next team in line around Georgia, either a spot above or a spot below. So, I take Ohio State.

Now, the UA/UGA winner: what to do? Assume both would have 1 loss, and Alabama the conference champion. I feel compelled to honor the conference title of the SEC, with a single loss on their record, to a good team, possibly highly ranked Texas A&M.

So, in your scenario, my CFP is 1 Cincinnati, 2 Oklahoma, 3 Ohio State, and 4 Alabama. Georgia, by virtue of that 1 loss and not being the conference champion, but losing it as the last game of the season, is left out. It doesn't seem "fair" to the great team that UGA is, to leave them off, but it strengthens the case for an expanded playoff, which I'm indifferent about. I actually think that my 1 and 2 is going to happen. Easy peasy. But, I feel like OSU and Alabama both are not their best versions of themselves, and will not win their respective conferences. So, I'll keep Georgia as it stands today, as the most realistic 1 seed in the CFP, then Cincy, then OU, and #4 is literally anyone's guess. The Big 10 is far from settled. The PAC 12 is a long way away from having one of their conference champs actually be ranked anywhere near the top 4 teams. The ACC is an afterthought, and Wake Forest may argue that they are deserving, should they run the table and win it, which I also don't think is likely.

Per usual, this stuff comes into greater clarity in the last month of the season.
So you are saying if Bama wins out and beats the number 1 team in the SECC game they don't deserve to move up from the number 4 spot?
 

TideEngineer08

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It really boils down to this - do you believe the CFPs job is to:
1- crown a NC via tournament, not worrying about who is truly 'the best'
2- determine (as well as they can) who the best teams are based on the data to the NC is considered the best team in the country?

Those wanting expansion or inclusion of G5 teams are those who consider the NC the result of option 1 above. I've long been a fan of option 2 - it's what the BCS was built to do (and generally did) and what the CFP has done as well.

If a G5 team wants inclusion, play a real schedule. Otherwise, sit back down at the kid's table.
So many don't get it. The CFP committee was tasked with option 2.

I do wish the G5 would break away and create their own postseason. Stop leeching off the P5. And that is what it is by the way... leeching.
 

RollTide_HTTR

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Cincy's biggest problem is that Alabama still has to play #1 Georgia (hopefully) so they'll theoretically have a win over the then #1 team in this scenario. And Georgia would have its only loss to us while dominating Auburn and Kentucky plus a bunch of other goodish teams.

Ohio State still has to play Michigan, Michigan State and Penn State

Oklahoma still has to play Oklahoma State

Basically all those wins are more impressive than beating Notre Dame (i honestly think Notre Dame drops at least 1 more game possibly 2) and most of those teams other wins are miles better than anyone else Cincy plays outside of maybe SMU.

So cincy's big win isn't as big as any other contender and the rest of their schedule is far below everyone elses.

It just makes no sense for them to make it in the scenario the OP laid out.
 

TideEngineer08

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What if Cincinnati were 13-0 in the new Big 12? How does that work out? Same parameters as the original question, except replace Oklahoma with Oregon.

IOW,

Ohio State 12-1, Big Ten champions
Alabama 12-1, SEC champions
Oregon 12-1 or 13-0, Pac 12 champions
Georgia 12-1, SEC runners up

Cincinnati, 13-0, Big 12 champions (OU and Texas in the SEC).
 

DogPatch

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What if Cincinnati were 13-0 in the new Big 12? How does that work out? Same parameters as the original question, except replace Oklahoma with Oregon.

IOW,

Ohio State 12-1, Big Ten champions
Alabama 12-1, SEC champions
Oregon 12-1 or 13-0, Pac 12 champions
Georgia 12-1, SEC runners up

Cincinnati, 13-0, Big 12 champions (OU and Texas in the SEC).
In this scenario, an undefeated Big 12 champ would make it in over a one loss SEC runner up or one loss PAC 12 champ. I won't speculate on whether or not they are the better team, but IF Cincy was an undefeated Big 12 champ, they're in.
 

deliveryman35

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What if Cincinnati were 13-0 in the new Big 12? How does that work out? Same parameters as the original question, except replace Oklahoma with Oregon.

IOW,

Ohio State 12-1, Big Ten champions
Alabama 12-1, SEC champions
Oregon 12-1 or 13-0, Pac 12 champions
Georgia 12-1, SEC runners up

Cincinnati, 13-0, Big 12 champions (OU and Texas in the SEC).

We lost to a two-loss, unranked team with it's backup qb. I think at some point that might come back to haunt us.
 

selmaborntidefan

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We lost to a two-loss, unranked team with it's backup qb. I think at some point that might come back to haunt us.
You forgot two key phrases:
a) on the road
b) on the last play of the game

The committee has shown the good sense to view losses in context. This is not a 31-point road loss at Iowa.
 

editder

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In this case I would have 2 separate playoffs, with Cincinnati, Boise State, Central Florida and Auburn vying for the People's Choice championship.
 

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