CKD Tendency Of Close Games

[BAMARICH]

Okay, dug back a bit to see what the numbers really look like.
2021 - 5 games determined by one score or less (Bama went 4-1 in those games)
2022 - 5 games determined by one score or less (Bama went 3-2 in those games)
2023 - 5 games determined by one score or less (Bama went 4-1 in those games)
2024 - 5 games determined by one score or less (Bama went 2-3 in those games)
2025 - 5 games determined by one score or less (Bama went 4-1 in those games)

Not a lot of difference in the number of close games, (though the 2025 season is incomplete).

From a statistical standpoint DeBoer has close games at the same rate Saban did in his last few years (once NIL was in full swing).

It's not just "one score"... it's how long into the 4th a game stays within one score. The Vandy game is a great example. We kick at FG at 4:08 in the 4th to go up 23-14. That means until 4:09 in the 4th, it's a one score game. I also don't think the Saban comparison is completely fair because he was dealing with far more than NIL being in full swing - he had staff problems that CKD isn't dealing with.

 

[crimsonaudio]

It's not just "one score"... it's how long into the 4th a game stays within one score. The Vandy game is a great example. We kick at FG at 4:08 in the 4th to go up 23-14. That means until 4:09 in the 4th, it's a one score game. I also don't think the Saban comparison is completely fair because he was dealing with far more than NIL being in full swing - he had staff problems that CKD isn't dealing with.

Could just be me, but it seems that many are remembering the last few years under CNS differently than I do.

My point isn't to dog Saban, but to point out that this is likely more the norm now than ever, not just at Bama, but across the SEC (among teams that consistently play tough schedules like Bama does).

The parity is like never before. Far greater than it was just 10 years ago.

 

[bamajas]

Tell me how you felt when it was 17-0 and we stopped their pitiful offense again and got the ball back close to midfield??? I was sitting back relaxing in my recliner like I didn't have a care in the world!

But then, all of a sudden, we run that stupid little "trick" play that was not only ill-conceived but ill-timed (because we had been running it down their throats better than we've run the ball all year!!!)! It put us in 2nd and long and we went 3 and out and after that drive we have several 3 and outs (or non-point-producing drives).

This is when the barn started their comeback with two field goal drives and then when they scored on the first drive of the 3rd quarter and made it 17-13, how'd you feel then???

I think the point of the OP is when you have an opponent on the ropes, you go ahead and deliver the knock out punch! And yes, I feel this is more of a "Grubb issue" than a CKD one, but he's got "veto power" on every play so this is something I hope changes going forward.

Counterpoint: What if we *thought* the trick play might lead to the knockout punch?

What would we be saying if the trick play was a touchdown for us?

How much of our diagnosis about that drive is because it didn't work compared to what we assume their motives are?

 

[BAMARICH]

That's the point I made yesterday.

And it all dates from the moment NIL was legal.

Could just be me, but it seems that many are remembering the last few years under CNS differently than I do.

My point isn't to dog Saban, but to point out that this is likely more the norm now than ever, not just at Bama, but across the SEC (among teams that consistently play tough schedules like Bama does).

The parity is like never before. Far greater than it was just 10 years ago.

I agree there’s far more parity… that’s not debatable whatsoever. However, even in this era I think CKD’s “mo” is to shorten games and win it in the 4th quarter. Not knocking it per se because he’s clearly been successful doing it. However, it leads to games like this past week, the OU game, etc. playing out like they did… and you’re putting immense pressure on your team to be perfect in the 4th quarter of games. Could be he’s got a lot of stock in Maalox and Rolaids.

 

[RammerJammer14]

Counterpoint: What if we *thought* the trick play might lead to the knockout punch?

What would we be saying if the trick play was a touchdown for us?

How much of our diagnosis about that drive is because it didn't work compared to what we assume their motives are?

Counterpoint to your counterpoint- how many of these trick plays that we’ve run- and we’ve run at least one in every single game, often 2 to 3- have resulted in a score? Or even a 1st down? Off the top of my head I can think of only 3: Bernard’s wildcat TD against USC (and that barely counts as a trick play, it’s just a wildcat package), a game or so ago we ran a trick play to convert a 3rd and 3 or so, and we had that one pass to Proctor that didn’t give us a 1st down but gained I think 9 yards to the 1, after with we scored. It all seems pretty low percentage to me, and more often than not it kills the rhythm.

 

[bamajas]

Counterpoint to your counterpoint- how many of these trick plays that we’ve run- and we’ve run at least one in every single game, often 2 to 3- have resulted in a score? Or even a 1st down? Off the top of my head I can think of only 3: Bernard’s wildcat TD against USC (and that barely counts as a trick play, it’s just a wildcat package), a game or so ago we ran a trick play to convert a 3rd and 3 or so, and we had that one pass to Proctor that didn’t give us a 1st down but gained I think 9 yards to the 1, after with we scored. It all seems pretty low percentage to me, and more often than not it kills the rhythm.

I’m just confused about how we’re supposed to complain about it all. On one hand, we’re too conservative and slow, so it keeps games close, but on the other hand, we run too many trick plays because we think they don’t work. Like, surely they work in practice and feel confident calling them, right? But trick plays and 4th downs are, by definition, not conservative. And the coaches know we can’t run the ball great and the tricks are an adjustment to that

I’m just not sure there’s enough evidence that they largely *want* games to be like they are. I think the staff wanted to be up 24-0 just as badly as we did

 

[81usaf92]

I'm honestly unsure that the criticism that CKD has a tendency of having 'close games' is accurate.

I'd have to dive deep into results for the last five years to prove one way or the other, but I already posted the 2024 results.

I'm not sure the perception matches reality.

I think until he wins a championship then all the criticisms will persist because people can’t just be happy. I think the fact that he currently is 5-2 against playoff bound coaches is something more useful. The 2 losses are to venerables and the 5 wins are vs lanning and smart.

I just think matchups and late game decisions are far more important these days than being able to blow someone out. I guarantee you that Ohio st is going to be pushed by someone in the next few weeks and we are going to see if they can take a punch. We know really only 4 teams in the current rankings that can… bama, Oklahoma, Georgia, and Oregon. Everyone else either loses close games or doesn’t have them at all.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

Could just be me, but it seems that many are remembering the last few years under CNS differently than I do.

My point isn't to dog Saban, but to point out that this is likely more the norm now than ever, not just at Bama, but across the SEC (among teams that consistently play tough schedules like Bama does).

The parity is like never before. Far greater than it was just 10 years ago.

I've said for years on this board that part of the problem with the assessment of fans is ASSUMING that an extreme outlier performance is the "new normal" for Alabama, most notably in regard to the 2011 defense. Too many assessments here rely upon, "Well WAY BACK WHEN we used to blow folks out and the games were over at halftime." Granted, we used to do it more so than now but part of that was we had a head coach in the prime of his career with a DC in the prime of his DC career who has since gone on to big things elsewhere, which only proves how valuable the DC was.

The 2011 defense wasn't something that can be replicated every single year - and it also has to be remembered that THE OPPONENT plays a role in the blowout as well. The SEC of 2011 was really - when you get down to it - a three team league: Alabama, LSU, and Arkansas, who was 24 points less than the first two teams. Yes, SCAR was 11-2....one of those losses was to 8-5 Auburn AT HOME.

As far as close games......those of us old enough to remember Coach Bryant and Coach Stallings remember A BUNCH of close games that left us needing the Pepto.


BRYANT
1958 Tulane (3-7) L, 13-7
1959 MSU (2-7) W, 10-0
1972 Tenn, W 17-10 (rally in final 2 minutes)
1974 FSU (1-10) W 8-7 (FG in waning seconds)
1980 Rutgers W, 17-13

STALLINGS
1990 Penn State, 9-0 L
1990 Florida, 17-13 L
1990 Georgia, 17-16 L
1990 Tennessee, 9-6 W
1991 LSU (5-6), 20-17 W
1991 Memphis, 10-7 W
1991 Auburn, 13-6 W
1992 La Tech, 13-0 W (6-0 in fourth qtr)
1994 Arkansas (4-7), 13-6 W
1994 USM, 14-6 W
1995 Vandy, 33-25 W (required a 23-point 4th quarter to come back and win)
1995 USM, 24-20 W (converted a 4th and 16 for game-winning TD in waning seconds for only lead)
1995 MSU (3-8), 14-9 W
1996 Auburn, 24-23 W (led 17-0 early - sound familiar?)

 

[arthurdawg]

Another thing I've seen mentioned is that Saban didn't lose to unranked teams like we did last year.

Umm... But Saban did lose 4 games to unranked teams in 2007... Probably need to give DeBoer a Mulligan there!

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

Counterpoint: What if we *thought* the trick play might lead to the knockout punch?

What would we be saying if the trick play was a touchdown for us?

How much of our diagnosis about that drive is because it didn't work compared to what we assume their motives are?

That's an excellent point BJ!

 

[selmaborntidefan]

Another thing I've seen mentioned is that Saban didn't lose to unranked teams like we did last year.

Umm... But Saban did lose 4 games to unranked teams in 2007... Probably need to give DeBoer a Mulligan there!

I don't think this is a good argument, though.

While it's certainly possible to overstate what DeBoer inherited, he didn't inherit anything close to resembling the train wreck Mike Shula left for Saban - some his fault, some of it the result of sanctions that occurred when Shula was a lousy OC for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

And FWIW - Saban DID lose his first game to an "unranked team" after 2007 to Texas A/M....in 2021, just as NIL was legalized. Odds are he would have lost more had he stayed, too.

 

[RammerJammer14]

I’m just confused about how we’re supposed to complain about it all. On one hand, we’re too conservative and slow, so it keeps games close, but on the other hand, we run too many trick plays because we think they don’t work. Like, surely they work in practice and feel confident calling them, right? But trick plays and 4th downs are, by definition, not conservative. And the coaches know we can’t run the ball great and the tricks are an adjustment to that

I’m just not sure there’s enough evidence that they largely *want* games to be like they are. I think the staff wanted to be up 24-0 just as badly as we did

I agree that people complain about everything, even holding contrary positions at the same time lol.

I want us to lean towards being more aggressive than less aggressive. For example I was all for going for it on 4th down against AU rather than kick the FG. Trick plays are a way to be aggressive. All I’m saying is, are they the best way to be aggressive? It’s an opportunity cost. What is the most efficient way to keep the foot down. I will of course yell my head off any time a trick play works lol.

 

[BamaMoon]

Counterpoint: What if we *thought* the trick play might lead to the knockout punch?

What would we be saying if the trick play was a touchdown for us?

How much of our diagnosis about that drive is because it didn't work compared to what we assume their motives are?

True, if it worked. But the problem is it didn't and more importantly, it not only didn't work but we lost 9 yards to boot!

But the bigger concern is the trend in play calling seems to change when we get a lead.

If this was one isolated event, I'd dismiss it. Is this correlation OR a coincidence? All I know is we've had a tendency to start fast, build leads, and then allow teams to come back several times.

Motives? IDK, but the results suggest this is an area of concern.

 

[bamajas]

True, if it worked. But the problem is it didn't and more importantly, it not only didn't work but we lost 9 yards to boot!

But the bigger concern is the trend in play calling seems to change when we get a lead.

If this was one isolated event, I'd dismiss it. Is this correlation OR a coincidence? All I know is we've had a tendency to start fast, build leads, and then allow teams to come back several times.

Motives? IDK, but the results suggest this is an area of concern.

It's almost sounding like the argument is that the combo of DeBoer and Grubb WANT it that way and don't think it's a problem

 

[selmaborntidefan]

Btw - for those of you that have developed selective amnesia.....Saban needed a 4th and 31 conversion at the House of Horrors to beat Auburn in 2023, who was not only an unranked team, they were an unranked team that 7 days earlier had been blown off the field by New Mexico State.

On the previous visit to Auburn when they were coached by Mr. Potatoe Head (with apologies to Dan Quayle), it took a stupid mistake of running out of bounds, a rally, and FOUR OVERTIMES to sneak away with a win over another unranked Tiger team.

 

[BamaMoon]

It's almost sounding like the argument is that the combo of DeBoer and Grubb WANT it that way and don't think it's a problem

"want it that way" - I don't think they want teams to come back and make games close. I also don't think they "don't think it is a problem."

I HOPE this is an offseason "self-scouting" topic for them to consider.

But let's say we build a lead against Georgia. I sure hope we keep our foot on the pedal of whatever is working! If they have proven anything this year it is that they are "hard to kill." They've come back in several games after being down early and won. I think the clock just ran out on their comeback agaisnt us!

 

[BamaMike05]

True, if it worked. But the problem is it didn't and more importantly, it not only didn't work but we lost 9 yards to boot!

But the bigger concern is the trend in play calling seems to change when we get a lead.

If this was one isolated event, I'd dismiss it. Is this correlation OR a coincidence? All I know is we've had a tendency to start fast, build leads, and then allow teams to come back several times.

Motives? IDK, but the results suggest this is an area of concern.

We didn't lose 9 yards on the trick play, though. In fact, we did not lose any yards. The next play was 2nd & 10. The trick play was no different than what the result would have been had we taken a deep shot and thrown an incompletetion. I was totally fine with the call.