Conference Realignment Talk

[TideEngineer08]

I've heard enough weird reports/rumors that I don't want to dismiss it outright, but surely the Big 12 would have to know there's no way Minnesota would consider it. It does speak to the fact that some programs are kind of held hostage by their conferences. They make too much money to leave, but they also can't be relevant either. This begs the question of what the point of the money is if you're still hopelessly mired in mediocrity or worse.

Also, following up on the popularity data, and @TideEngineer08's observation that some made zero sense... I saw that someone pointed out there are some zeros in the data and that is in fact the case. The Gen Z numbers are really volatile. Michigan supposedly has only 85K compared to 500K for Ohio State, Duke supposedly has 300K, which is six times as much as Florida and North Carolina, Illinois only has 11K, and then you get to the zeros.

Arkansas supposedly has 0 Gen z fans, along with Stanford, Iowa St., Rutgers, Louisville, and Colorado. Then once you reach the very bottom the data is just stupid. It says Wake Forest and Vanderbilt have 0 Millennial fans... and ok I can buy that. But it also says Mississippi has zero Baby Boomer fans while Vanderbilt has 60,000? So it's not just as easy to tossing out the Gen Z data. Pretty unethical in my opinion to present the data in this way...

I would not rely on Gen Z for anything at all. Businesses (and business-like entities such as major college football/athletics programs) are going to find this out the hard way. Some already have.

That being said, Minnesota to the Big 12 makes zero sense. They would make less money and would be no more competitive than they are in the Big Ten. That's like hearing the ACC is wooing Vanderbilt. Ok.... good?

 

[KrAzY3]

Not to be outdone by the Big 12...

Pac-12 jockeying to retain UCLA, John Canzano says on KJR Radio

PAC-12 COMMISSIONER George Kliavkoff is seeking 2024 media rights bids in two forms: with and without UCLA as a member of the conference, John Canzano told KJR Radio hosts

247sports.com

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

Hmmm.

Me thinks that the B1G might wind up with Oregon instead of UCLA...

 

[TideEngineer08]

Not to be outdone by the Big 12...

Pac-12 jockeying to retain UCLA, John Canzano says on KJR Radio

PAC-12 COMMISSIONER George Kliavkoff is seeking 2024 media rights bids in two forms: with and without UCLA as a member of the conference, John Canzano told KJR Radio hosts

247sports.com

You really have to feel good about the SEC's position in the long term. There are some good points made in that article even if I think the ship has sailed with UCLA. It is going to be really difficult for the Big Ten to maintain a west coast presence. And the potential is there for this to be unwound in the next decade or so.

But the SEC's additions are next door. And I cannot see any future additions to the SEC that do not come from the ACC or Big 12.

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

With the difference in time zones and the problems that it entails, the B1G's only viable path to further expansion lies on the left coast...

 

[TideEngineer08]

With the difference in time zones and the problems that it entails, the B1G's only viable path to further expansion lies on the left coast...

IF they needed to have expanded....

In actuality nothing said they did. However it is said that USC and UCLA reached out to the Big Ten, as Texas and OU did to the SEC. Which I believe.

They too have the path of raiding the ACC which I realize is far less doable at the current time, due to existing contracts.

But, they were going to disburse 100 mill per team without USC and UCLA. And now that payout may go up a little, but not much. And I daresay it may be offset by the costs of maintaining a schedule with so many more west coast trips, especially for sports other than football. We'll see.

 

[KrAzY3]

With the difference in time zones and the problems that it entails, the B1G's only viable path to further expansion lies on the left coast...

The signs do point to a westward expansion. They can make a west coast pod and mitigate travel issues, they can have a Big 10 after dark time slot, and while I don't think Cal is a great addition they could make the UCLA issues go away to. But... it doesn't mean things play out like that either.

In actuality nothing said they did. However it is said that USC and UCLA reached out to the Big Ten, as Texas and OU did to the SEC. Which I believe.

Well, for the record I still don't like the Texas and OU additions by themselves, I only really valued them a move towards megaconferences. The SEC didn't need more football powerhouses, and the fact that no expansion teams has won the SEC demonstrates that the SEC didn't actually need more football elites to grow.

But, I think both moves were power plays. And ultimately I guess this is about power as much as money. If you have the power I guess the money will eventually follow. The Big 10 can capture the west coast and, they probably had it in their mind they could snag Notre Dame to, which would have been a massive move. Now things have slowed down a bit but there's a lot at stake here. Heck, the basketball postseason alone is worth 1 billion.

A lot hangs in the balance and I think we're seeing some attempts to consolidate power as much as anything. The SEC kind of had to take Texas and Oklahoma because if they stayed in play they'd have likely ended up in another megaconference. The Big 10 once they knew USC and UCLA were looking around probably felt the same way.

 

[Crimson1967]

I read an article somewhere that Gavin Newsome is throwing his weight around to keep UCLA in the PAC 12. He is on the California BOT due to being governor. Not sure if anything will come of it but who knows.

The Big XII is making plays for the Arizonas, Colorado, and Utah.

 

[Redwood Forrest]

This is all so interesting and confusing. Clearly Texas/Oklahoma and USC/UCLA we unhappy in their second-rate conferences.

 

[TideEngineer08]

This is all so interesting and confusing. Clearly Texas/Oklahoma and USC/UCLA we unhappy in their second-rate conferences.

Bingo. None of this round would be happening if it weren't for the fact that those 4 saw the Vanderbilts and Rutgers of the world making double the money and no way they could make up that difference in the Pac 12 and Big 12.

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

Just wondering if the Big 12 expands, does that open the door for an earlier exit for OU and Texas...

 

[DzynKingRTR]

Just wondering if the Big 12 expands, does that open the door for an earlier exit for OU and Texas...

They are already going to add BYU, UCF, Cincy, and Houston before texas and Oklahoma leave. Why would adding more teams change that?

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

They are already going to add BYU, UCF, Cincy, and Houston before texas and Oklahoma leave. Why would adding more teams change that?

Just wondering if that creates any "loopholes" in any exit penalty clauses...

 

[TideEngineer08]

It has been speculated that if the Big 12 adds Pac 12 teams, that will indeed give UT/OU an early out.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Salient numbers:

 

[TideEngineer08]

I have some issues with those numbers.

I think they got the teams mostly right, but the numbers aren't. Syracuse? There is no way. And where is Oklahoma?

Again, I think the teams are mostly right, but the numbers can't be.

 

[KrAzY3]

I have some issues with those numbers.

I think they got the teams mostly right, but the numbers aren't. Syracuse? There is no way. And where is Oklahoma?

Again, I think the teams are mostly right, but the numbers can't be.

I'd take much bigger exception to Oregon being as high as they are. That's not something I've seen come up before. Oklahoma generally is a bit lower than some people think because their brand recognition is much higher than their actual fanbase, but usually not that low.

This reminds me of the other data that came out that made some sense then had some absolute rubbish in there like Duke being ranked fairly high.

In this case, I can explain Syracuse being as high as they are. They are the most popular football team in New York, a fairly large state, the fans just aren't that enthusiastic. I'm still a bit perplexed by the data because the previous NYT data I saw was based on Facebook likes and for instance Alabama has almost double the likes of Oregon so not entirely sure what's going on there.

Just another data point I guess. You take that, compare it to the other data, you start to get something that makes more sense...

You will note though that there's no Clemson or Miami for what ever that is worth.

 

[81usaf92]

I'd take much bigger exception to Oregon being as high as they are. That's not something I've seen come up before. Oklahoma generally is a bit lower than some people think because their brand recognition is much higher than their actual fanbase, but usually not that low.

This reminds me of the other data that came out that made some sense then had some absolute rubbish in there like Duke being ranked fairly high.

In this case, I can explain Syracuse being as high as they are. They are the most popular football team in New York, a fairly large state, the fans just aren't that enthusiastic. I'm still a bit perplexed by the data because the previous NYT data I saw was based on Facebook likes and for instance Alabama has almost double the likes of Oregon so not entirely sure what's going on there.

Just another data point I guess. You take that, compare it to the other data, you start to get something that makes more sense...

You will note though that there's no Clemson or Miami for what ever that is worth.

Oregon is more fake than what those numbers indicate. They can’t even draw 50% at a Rose Bowl or 25% of a NCG. Their average attendance is worse than Kentucky football

 

[81usaf92]

Hmmm.

Me thinks that the B1G might wind up with Oregon instead of UCLA...

More likely both.

Question:What is Oregon without USC and Washington?

Answer: “Nebraska without Texas and Oklahoma”

 

[81usaf92]

You will note though that there's no Clemson or Miami for what ever that is worth.

Well that shows that big markets and a few rich alumni don’t equal big fan bases. Really I think Oregon is closer to those two than what many think. Oregon’s rise was more like the appeal of Nebraska for Texas and Oklahoma B listers in nature than Knight revolutioning the game. Take Washington and USC away from the PAC 12 and Oregon is in the same predicament that Wichita St basketball is at best and Nebraska football is at worst. They really aren’t that big.