Conference Realignment Talk

[TideEngineer08]

It looks like Kevin Warren, the most inept conference commissioner out there today, threw a lot of gasoline on the Pac 12-2's fire yesterday, making comments at the Big Ten's media days about how Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Cal would "add value" to the Big Ten. It was thought that only Notre Dame did that on a per team basis. So that's launched a ton of speculation because apparently the 10 remaining PAC teams are not getting a lot of positive feedback on the market right now for their TV rights.

I'd prefer the Big Ten continue its westward expansion anyway, as I am sure the SEC has no such plans, and it leaves the top ACC teams far more vulnerable and available to the SEC when that conference implodes.

 

[KrAzY3]

It looks like Kevin Warren, the most inept conference commissioner out there today, threw a lot of gasoline on the Pac 12-2's fire yesterday, making comments at the Big Ten's media days about how Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Cal would "add value" to the Big Ten. It was thought that only Notre Dame did that on a per team basis. So that's launched a ton of speculation because apparently the 10 remaining PAC teams are not getting a lot of positive feedback on the market right now for their TV rights.

I'd prefer the Big Ten continue its westward expansion anyway, as I am sure the SEC has no such plans, and it leaves the top ACC teams far more vulnerable and available to the SEC when that conference implodes.

I'm also content with the Big 10 moving west as long as the SEC keeps their eyes on the right target. College football couldn't abandon the west coast but I don't mind the Big 10 being the one to bring them along.

As far as the value, one aspect people tend to overlook is the exporting of brands/product aspect. For instance the reason I want the SEC in Virginia so badly is not because Virginia or VT is such a prize in and of themselves. It's not about Virginia fans watching Virginia games, that's a lower quality product we all know that. It's about Virginia fans watching SEC games, and we know the SEC has a great product (fun fact, no expansion team has ever won the SEC).

I could say well the Big 10 could add half the Pac-12's market by only adding 4 teams and you could counter that math doesn't really work out. The counter to that though is that the Big 10's product is simply better than the Pac-12s product. So, half that market would be worth way more to the Big 10 because they have a better product to sell. I hope it happens, let the Big 12 gobble up the rest of the teams and we have one less fly in the ointment in terms of power conferences.

A couple other tidbits...

Reportedly the SEC and the Big 10 have not expressed interest in Miami. Now... that might all be because of grant of rights, but I'm certainly hoping the SEC in particular understands there are much better potential additions.

Notre Dame reportedly wants a massive TV deal, something up to 75 million. It is understandable that they want this (to keep up with the SEC and Big 10), but it seems unrealistic. Part of the idea is that the Big 12 could be a lead-in package, boosting the overall value. I doubt Notre Dame gets what they want (they might get enough to stand pat), but NBC could end up being the resistance to the Big 10 and SEC completely taking over college football.

The Big 12 wanted Notre Dame in the past, and they could in the long run end up partnered together. The Big 12 could provide Power 5 competition without Big 10 or SEC level difficulty. If the Big 12 does end up with this TV deal and with the Pac-12 leftovers they are probably going to be here for quite a well, and the ACC becomes the endangered conference.

 

[TideEngineer08]

College football has not abandoned the west coast... the west coast has abandoned college football.

This is why USC/UCLA fled on the first train out of town and why the rest are so desperate to follow.

 

[KrAzY3]

College football has not abandoned the west coast... the west coast has abandoned college football.

This is why USC/UCLA fled on the first train out of town and why the rest are so desperate to follow.

It isn't really that simple though. For instance I was looking at rating and the one year I saw everything broken down, the Pac-12 actually had better ratings than the Big 12 (both trailing the SEC, Big 10 and ACC). Now, I don't think anyone would argue that the Big 12 (including Texas and Oklahoma in those numbers) abandoned college football, but it demonstrates a demographic reality. About 80% of the United States population lives east of Dallas.

There is obviously value to extract west of Dallas, but it really would be fair to argue that basically you need one program west of there for every 4 programs east of there. This imaginary line cuts through several traditionally Big 12 states, with Colorado, Utah, Arizona, California, Washington and Oregon falling completely on the other side.

It's just hard to make up such deficiencies. They aren't worthless though, they are just worth less. This also shows a point I've made several times before, which is that fans don't merely watch the best games on TV, they have conference and geographic loyalties. This put the Pac-12 and the Big 12 at an inherent disadvantage since their geographic domain has far less population to draw from.

Edit: This is also why I like territory like North Carolina so much. Sure their population is 10 million, but the neighboring states are also 30 million, all within a relatively compact area. You don't really get that sort of out thing out west.

 

[rolltide7854]

I haven't seen much discussion about Utah going anywhere but I wouldn't mind getting them in SEC because I'm still not over 2008. I was at that game and wouldn't mind paying them back a few times. I have no idea what they would bring to the SEC but I won't ever forget the rude Utah fan who sat in front of me. After a Utah touchdown I was turned talking to my son when I was pushed from the back. I turned around I was about to confront him when he started saying he was sorry that he stumbled and fell into me. My son confirmed and probably saved me a night in jail.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

I haven't seen much discussion about Utah going anywhere but I wouldn't mind getting them in SEC because I'm still not over 2008. I was at that game and wouldn't mind paying them back a few times. I have no idea what they would bring to the SEC but I won't ever forget the rude Utah fan who sat in front of me. After a Utah touchdown I was turned talking to my son when I was pushed from the back. I turned around I was about to confront him when he started saying he was sorry that he stumbled and fell into me. My son confirmed and probably saved me a night in jail.

Meh....


what has Utah done since that night the planets all aligned and lightning landed in their bottle?

 

[GrayTide]

IF, the Big 12 could add Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, and Colorado they would be at 16 teams which could be a very competitive conference . IF, the B1G were to add Washington and Oregon then that leaves Stanford, Cal, Washington State, and Oregon State out in the cold. I would venture to say that those 4 teams could be cobbled together in some Mountain West expansion. The ACC could still be salvaged if Notre Dame were to join in all sports. If not, Wake and Duke need to seek Ivy League membership. I would prefer the SEC take in UNC, NC State, UVA and Va Tech. Clemson, Miami, Ga Tech, Syracuse, Louisville, BC, FSU, and Pitt could petition for the AAC.

 

[TideEngineer08]

IF, the Big 12 could add Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, and Colorado they would be at 16 teams which could be a very competitive conference . IF, the B1G were to add Washington and Oregon then that leaves Stanford, Cal, Washington State, and Oregon State out in the cold. I would venture to say that those 4 teams could be cobbled together in some Mountain West expansion. The ACC could still be salvaged if Notre Dame were to join in all sports. If not, Wake and Duke need to seek Ivy League membership. I would prefer the SEC take in UNC, NC State, UVA and Va Tech. Clemson, Miami, Ga Tech, Syracuse, Louisville, BC, FSU, and Pitt could petition for the AAC.

I do not think Notre Dame will be coming to the ACC's rescue.

 

[GrayTide]

I agree with you, Notre Dame is unlikely to come to the ACC's rescue.

 

[BamaNation]

It looks like Kevin Warren, the most inept conference commissioner out there today, threw a lot of gasoline on the Pac 12-2's fire yesterday, making comments at the Big Ten's media days about how Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Cal would "add value" to the Big Ten. It was thought that only Notre Dame did that on a per team basis. So that's launched a ton of speculation because apparently the 10 remaining PAC teams are not getting a lot of positive feedback on the market right now for their TV rights.

I'd prefer the Big Ten continue its westward expansion anyway, as I am sure the SEC has no such plans, and it leaves the top ACC teams far more vulnerable and available to the SEC when that conference implodes.

Of that group, only Oregon adds athletics value and mainly b/c of its affiliation w/ Nike and their endless supply of uniforms

Stanford and Cal add real academic value but not any eyeballs.

Washington gets a big meh from me and probably just about everybody else.

 

[KrAzY3]

I haven't seen much discussion about Utah going anywhere but I wouldn't mind getting them in SEC

They very much fall victim of the west of Dallas demographic. Only the very best locations out west hold real value, that's one reason the Pac-12 can't survive by expanding, there's nothing there to expand with. They do add value to the Big-12 because they'd help fortify the conference.

Of that group, only Oregon adds athletics value and mainly b/c of its affiliation w/ Nike and their endless supply of uniforms

Supposedly Phil Knight is willing to do what it takes to get Oregon in the Big 10. It's hard to imagine specifically what that would be, but it is not out of the realm of reason that he does something like a massive ten year sponsorship of the Big 10 or something.

Anyway, I saw a Dennis Dodd report where he claimed that the Big 10 was targeting Cal, Stanford, Oregon, and Washington. The catch was they were going to negotiate their current deal and then add them after the fact. This is pretty devious as it would basically force the media partner to pay additionally for them without really wanting to. Never even heard of Cal going to the Big 10 though...

As to why they might want to do this, I can speculate that part of the allure is the time zone actually. The Big 10 commissioner mentioned the different time zones and they can turn a strength into a weakness. Expanding means in theory more schools playing games at the same time, which gives diminishing returns. By adding 6 Pac-12 schools the Big 10 gets "Big 10 after dark" every week, but without investing as heavily in it as the Pac-12 did. So, what the Big 10 might be aiming for here is a near monopoly on the late night slot.

 

[DzynKingRTR]

Wow! Cal went from almost disbanding football to possibly joining the Big 10?

 

[KrAzY3]

Wow! Cal went from almost disbanding football to possibly joining the Big 10?

Consider the source, it's Dodd, heh...

 

[TideEngineer08]

Of that group, only Oregon adds athletics value and mainly b/c of its affiliation w/ Nike and their endless supply of uniforms

Stanford and Cal add real academic value but not any eyeballs.

Washington gets a big meh from me and probably just about everybody else.

Agreed. If this were 1992, Washington would be a great addition.

I think any mention of Stanford is another tactic to attract Notre Dame. They've already got Notre Dame's #1 rival in USC. Stanford is probably Notre Dame's 2nd most important annual game, because it allows them a trip to California every season. That's the whole reason they started playing Stanford on an annual basis. And then any mention of Cal is because of their tie to Stanford as well as to mitigate potential lawsuits that seem to be brewing over UCLA breaking away (they and Cal are a part of the same system).

Washington? I guess Seattle is a big market.

In the end, none of this appeals to me. I do not think they are going to make this experiment work long term. This isn't the NFL, as much as they would like it to be. There are still monetary limitations. I think these west coast schools are going to suffer long term. But hey. It's been proven that a true blue blood like Nebraska will bend over and take it every single year if it means a 100 mill yearly payout.

 

[CrimsonTheory]

I do not think Notre Dame will be coming to the ACC's rescue.

I am ok with Notre Dame being left out in the cold.

 

[DzynKingRTR]

Still a lot of speculation that USC and UCLA to the B1G might not happen. The governor still trying to find a way to force UCLA to stay. If UCLA doesn't go then USC also doesn't. Probably why Cal is suddenly in the mix.

 

[KrAzY3]

Still a lot of speculation that USC and UCLA to the B1G might not happen. The governor still trying to find a way to force UCLA to stay. If UCLA doesn't go then USC also doesn't. Probably why Cal is suddenly in the mix.

I don't see how they can actually stop it, but it could be kind of like when Virginia Tech whined their way into the ACC. I do also see more chatter about that 10:30 slot as well. While logically it makes sense for the Big 10 to add Arizona instead of Cal, it could be easier to placate by going with Cal instead. Then, with 6 schools they'll have enough for that 10:30 slot, while 4 is really pushing it once you consider road games/bye weeks and playing teams from the eastern time zone...

So, while it makes very little football sense it could make sense in other ways I guess.

 

[Crimson1967]

Arizona doesn't observe DST, so they are in the Pacific Time Zone through the first week in November.

 

[TideEngineer08]

I don't see how they can actually stop it, but it could be kind of like when Virginia Tech whined their way into the ACC. I do also see more chatter about that 10:30 slot as well. While logically it makes sense for the Big 10 to add Arizona instead of Cal, it could be easier to placate by going with Cal instead. Then, with 6 schools they'll have enough for that 10:30 slot, while 4 is really pushing it once you consider road games/bye weeks and playing teams from the eastern time zone...

So, while it makes very little football sense it could make sense in other ways I guess.

I think they are going to run into the same issue that has ticked off OU/Texas so badly though. What teams are really going to want to play a game at 8 pm Pacific, which is 11 eastern? How many people are actually staying up and watching that? OU/Texas got ticked off about playing so many 11 AM games. Well this is sort of the opposite end of the spectrum but still not desirable.

You want 2:30 or 7 PM. I realize I'm going by Central.. but that's the sweet spot. You want as many of those as you can get. If this arrangement means that the new Big Ten additions from the west coast are going to be playing a ton of games at 8 PM Pacific time, then I don't think this is going fly long term.

Maybe I'm wrong. But then when you consider every other sport, and especially basketball which is playing twice a week? Flying cross country? I just don't see it working.

 

[DzynKingRTR]

Yeah, I just don't see it being feasible.