Do we benefit if Tennessee makes the championship game?
- Thread starter dathbama
- Start date
Whether they would or not, we should play like they will not
I don't bet, but if I did, I would bet money that yes, Bama would get in.
If you turn the color saturation down to where it's black and white it's even easier.
Agree. Every statement by the committee has an expiration date. All we can do is win out and hope things go our way. There is still a lot of football left to play.
i think we will see more than a couple unexpected results in the final 3 weeks. fingers crossed they don't involve us
I'm pretty sure you'd need a supercomputer to figure out the probabilities for each team going to the SEC CG and that would only get worse if Ga beats UT, and Texas or A&M lose before getting to their matchup and the two-loss team wins. Always I want to see us win the SEC but I certainly won't be disappointed this year if we get to the top 8 in the final rankings. A homefield game against most any of the lower seeds would be a good omen and much better than I hoped for after Vandy. Win out and see where the chips fall with gratitude in our hearts for even that opportunity is what I say. We're good enough on any given day to take it to anyone but as we've seen, bad enough on any given day to choke like the puking cat in my kitchen right now! UGH>
Ole Miss has a bye week before a road trip to Florida and close the season with the Egg Bowl against Miss State. Ole Miss should be able to win the last two games. This puts them at 10-2.
Georgia's last three games are at home against Tennessee, UMass and Georgia Tech. The Tennessee game will determine everything for Georgia. Win and they are in. Lose and they are out.
TAMU has New Mexico State and Auburn before playing Texas. Texas can lose to TAMU and still make playoff. TAMU has lot of reason to play hard and try to get a win.
Tennessee has Georgia, UTEP and Vandy. If Tennessee lose to Georgia, I can see them sitting at 11 or 12.
So I expect TAMU-Texas game to determine who goes to SEC Championship and If Bama wins out I think they get top 4 spots.
Georgia's last three games are at home against Tennessee, UMass and Georgia Tech. The Tennessee game will determine everything for Georgia. Win and they are in. Lose and they are out.
TAMU has New Mexico State and Auburn before playing Texas. Texas can lose to TAMU and still make playoff. TAMU has lot of reason to play hard and try to get a win.
Tennessee has Georgia, UTEP and Vandy. If Tennessee lose to Georgia, I can see them sitting at 11 or 12.
So I expect TAMU-Texas game to determine who goes to SEC Championship and If Bama wins out I think they get top 4 spots.
I wouldn't write off the Arkansas game just yet. This is the type of game late in the year that Bobby Petrino pulls an offensive rabbit out of his rear end and upsets a team. I don't expect Arkansas to win, but this game could very well go different than the experts predict.
Don't sleep on GT in the rivalry. They effectively stopped a more prolific Miami offense.
With the way UGA OL has been playing, they need all the help they can get against that UT defense - that front seven is playing really, really good football. It's an elite unit this season.
The entire offense for UGA looks out of sync. As you alluded to, it probably begins at the OL (LOS) as most things in the game do. But since the Texas game they just haven't looked good all the way around.
Though I would love for us to play and win the SECCG, I think I've resigned myself to the belief that our path of least of resistance to making the playoff is Tennessee winning out and Texas beating A&M and those two facing each other in the SECCG. This would eliminate UGA and A&M from the playoff conservation, at least in comparison to us, and we would assuredly be in as an at-large assuming we win out. Texas, Tennessee, us and maybe Ole Miss would be the SEC playoff teams in that scenario I believe.
My concern is the unknown of what the committee would do if we make the SECCG and lose and then you have UT, UGA, Ole Miss and us probably competing for 2 or 3 spots. I still think the committee wouldn't punish the loser of the SECCG when comparing them to the other 2 loss SEC teams, but I don't know if I want to find that out. I understand that's a bit of a loser's mentality.
My concern is the unknown of what the committee would do if we make the SECCG and lose and then you have UT, UGA, Ole Miss and us probably competing for 2 or 3 spots. I still think the committee wouldn't punish the loser of the SECCG when comparing them to the other 2 loss SEC teams, but I don't know if I want to find that out. I understand that's a bit of a loser's mentality.
It is hard not to think like that when the committee clearly does not care about strength of schedule. I always want to win the SEC first and then the national title, but who knows how this group of pampered fools would treat us if we lost in the SEC title game and had three losses. It is hard not to think with a loser's mentality because most committees seem to generate that type of thinking.
The easiest path for Bama is Tennessee winning out along with Texas.
The below is why Georgia and Alabama belong in playoff no matter if we have 3 losses or not. It was posted by deltatider yesterday in another thread. This is also why the SEC and B1G need to succeed from the bogus NCAA and start our own league. All you have to do is check the proposed Vegas line on top SEC teams vs any of the remaining top teams projected in the playoffs and any that are favored by 7 points or more belong there over the other team. The current system will never get the best teams in a playoff scenario:
"Josh Pate had a segment on his show tonight about flaws with the playoff committee’s most recent rankings. He focused on the fact that strength of schedule doesn’t get enough consideration from the committee’s rankings, and then he put up the strength of schedule for each of the teams the committee put in the top 12 this week and it really caught my attention. According to his stats, Bama’s SOS is #3 in the country, while Georgia’s SOS is #4. If you average the SOS for the rest of the teams currently in the top 12, the average SOS for the other 10 teams comes out to an average of 47. That is a huge discrepancy. Below is the SOS rankings for the other 10 teams:
Oregon: 32
Ohio State: 60
Texas: 40
PSU: 42
Indiana: 68
BYU: 36
Tennessee: 47
ND: 64
Miami: 59
Ole Miss: 29
This only reinforces my opinion that Bama would likely beat 5 of the teams ranked ahead of us by double digits.
That said, the most frustrating part to me is the SOS of the Big 10 teams that are currently sitting in the top 5."
"Josh Pate had a segment on his show tonight about flaws with the playoff committee’s most recent rankings. He focused on the fact that strength of schedule doesn’t get enough consideration from the committee’s rankings, and then he put up the strength of schedule for each of the teams the committee put in the top 12 this week and it really caught my attention. According to his stats, Bama’s SOS is #3 in the country, while Georgia’s SOS is #4. If you average the SOS for the rest of the teams currently in the top 12, the average SOS for the other 10 teams comes out to an average of 47. That is a huge discrepancy. Below is the SOS rankings for the other 10 teams:
Oregon: 32
Ohio State: 60
Texas: 40
PSU: 42
Indiana: 68
BYU: 36
Tennessee: 47
ND: 64
Miami: 59
Ole Miss: 29
This only reinforces my opinion that Bama would likely beat 5 of the teams ranked ahead of us by double digits.
That said, the most frustrating part to me is the SOS of the Big 10 teams that are currently sitting in the top 5."
IF tennessee wins out and makes the SECCG (giving Bama a bye the week of the SECCG) Bama might be able to meet them again in the CFP, which I would relish...
Regardless, Bama needs to win out for anything to happen post-season, but I'd LOVE to see Bama knock tennessee out of the playoffs.
My most wanted scenario is that somehow we get a rematch with Tenn in the SECCG and then win knocking them out giving us a Top 4 Auto Seed and Bye.
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This. They got a win over us in their house while we were struggling, but the best revenge is to wind up higher in the rankings than them.
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