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Link: Early Vegas lines

Alasippi said:
Call your local bookie, bet, and report your winnings to the IRS :)

You won't get any flack at all.

Don't report your winnings, now that's a totally different scenario.
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All you have to do is get a tax number from them and pay it and you will never hear a word from them. If gambling was legalized in Alabama it would be completely different story.
 
Alasippi said:
I'm picking Ole Miss to finish fifth in the West behind Bama LSU Auburn and Arkansas.

It's not that big of a reach to say they could start 0-3 in the conference with "at" games against South Carolina and Vandy and then getting us in Oxford.
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No way OM loses to Vandy, although I could see them losing to South Carolina on the road.

I think Ark will be better than Auburn.
 
There are some eye-poppers in there:

1037 TENNESSEE
1038 FLORIDA -27

IMHO, this is too low. Florida won by 24 last year, at Knoxville. Florida should be better this year. Tennessee probably won't be. Take Florida and lay the points.

1101 FLORIDA -11
1102 LSU

IMHO, this is way too high. No way UF gets a double digit win against LSU in Tiger Stadium. Take the tigers and the points.

1107 ALABAMA
1108 MISSISSIPPI -3

Taking candy from a baby. Shooting fish in a barrel. Bama and the points.

1201 LSU
1202 MISSISSIPPI -6

The outcome of the Bama game will change this line.
 
Bama323 said:
Honestly, I'm a little suprised that we are a 4 point favorite over VT. It will be interesting to see how the line moves as we get closer to actual game time.
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Not because we are better than VT, but because there will be more money bet on Bama than VT. It will take points to get people to bet on VT in that game - even if they are better...
 
GulfCoastTider said:
1101 FLORIDA -11
1102 LSU

IMHO, this is way too high. No way UF gets a double digit win against LSU in Tiger Stadium. Take the tigers and the points.
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Not to mention Urban Meyer has never won in Baton Rouge. Also...I'm sure Miles will do everything he can to get back at Meyer for hanging 51 points on him last year.
 
although i'm not sold on ole miss being so great this year, reb nutt's a good coach. if he sews up the in-state talent, they'll be a formidable team for years to come. put together a couple real good seasons and oxford could quickly become a hot college football spot.
 
davefrat said:
although i'm not sold on ole miss being so great this year, reb nutt's a good coach. if he sews up the in-state talent, they'll be a formidable team for years to come. put together a couple real good seasons and oxford could quickly become a hot college football spot.
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It's been 50 years since OM was great. It will be difficult to change that because:
  • OM has no intrinsic attraction
  • Nutt is great motivator, a good coach, and a lazy recruiter
  • MSU, Bama and LSU cause OM great trouble in Mississippi. i.e., they will never sew up the in-state talent. Miss talent is not close to enough anyway. Alabama which has more talent than Miss, is not nearly enough for Bama this year; and Bama has a much greater lock on Ala talent than OM on Miss talent.
  • Nutt/OM are living off of Orgeron's tireless and ?? recruiting. It will run out in a couple of years. Big drop off next year really, esp if Snead goes pro. They will lose 8 starters on O, including Snead, McCluster, Hodge and Jerry (in fact, 3 OL; and 6 starters on D, including Hardy, Tillman, Trahan (best/star LB) and Green (in fact, 3 of 4 in secondary). i.e., they will return 8 of 22 starters.
  • Bama and LSU will be the big dogs in the West for the foreseeable future, with Bama almost sure to be the bigger one, primarily because of coaching.
 
HitMan54 said:
Those people need an intervention. After the game we need to check the LV newspapers for missing people.
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The underdog has covered in about 90% of the Bama-Auburn games for nearly 25 years. It doesn't matter how good the teams are or what the records are. Auburn in Jordan-Hare may be our toughest game, especially if we're undefeated or close to it. They're not going to role over and die on the Plains. If we think they will then we may very well be looking at another Utah. This game scares me more than any other we play.
How many times have we beaten them down there since that first game in 1989?? Once sounds like the correct answer to me, unless I'm wrong.

We can't let down our guard against these guys. It won't be easy.
 
Alasippi said:
The underdog has covered in about 90% of the Bama-Auburn games for nearly 25 years. It doesn't matter how good the teams are or what the records are. Auburn in Jordan-Hare may be our toughest game, especially if we're undefeated or close to it. They're not going to role over and die on the Plains. If we think they will then we may very well be looking at another Utah. This game scares me more than any other we play.
How many times have we beaten them down there since that first game in 1989?? Once sounds like the correct answer to me, unless I'm wrong.

We can't let down our guard against these guys. It won't be easy.
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You are absolutely right Sippi.

Don't think Cheeznuts won't plan, scheme, study, coach and prepare for the Iron Bowl all season long. He knows how good of a coach Tubby was and what cost him his job. He would take an 1-11 record his first year if it meant beating BAMA.
 
BamaInBham said:
It's been 50 years since OM was great. It will be difficult to change that because:
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  • OM has no intrinsic attraction

    Umm...the insanely hot women of loose morals and players being allowed to do whatever the hell they want is an attraction to the more thuggish types.

  • Nutt is great motivator, a good coach, and a lazy recruiter

    Nutt is a great motivator. He is not a good coach. He had the good fortune of playing against Shula during his "prime" at Arkansas. He consistently makes horrible decisions on AND off the sidelines, and few coaches fall for his gimmicky play-calling. I don't know if he's a lazy recruiter; I do know that he's a bad one.

  • MSU, Bama and LSU cause OM great trouble in Mississippi. i.e., they will never sew up the in-state talent. Miss talent is not close to enough anyway. Alabama which has more talent than Miss, is not nearly enough for Bama this year; and Bama has a much greater lock on Ala talent than OM on Miss talent.

    I can agree with Bama and LSU causing OM trouble with recruiting. But MSU? No...not unless a kid as already been devoted to MSU his entire life, in which case that's not so much MSU causing OM trouble as it is the kid being born into the MSU family.

  • Nutt/OM are living off of Orgeron's tireless and ?? recruiting. It will run out in a couple of years. Big drop off next year really, esp if Snead goes pro. They will lose 8 starters on O, including Snead, McCluster, Hodge and Jerry (in fact, 3 OL; and 6 starters on D, including Hardy, Tillman, Trahan (best/star LB) and Green (in fact, 3 of 4 in secondary). i.e., they will return 8 of 22 starters.

    You nailed it. I also think they're living off Nutt being able to talk a big game. Ogre landed good recruits, but it was obvious anytime after about 30 seconds of opening his mouth that he was a dumbarse and that he would be a failure as a head coach. Nutt has the head coach personality, but he does not have the head coach intellect.

  • Bama and LSU will be the big dogs in the West for the foreseeable future, with Bama almost sure to be the bigger one, primarily because of coaching.

    I definitely agree here. How anyone could think otherwise is mind-boggling. If folks are failing to give LSU props due to Les Miles and his...shortcomings...they obviously haven't taken note of Nutt's antics over the years.
 
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Alasippi said:
The underdog has covered in about 90% of the Bama-Auburn games for nearly 25 years. It doesn't matter how good the teams are or what the records are. Auburn in Jordan-Hare may be our toughest game, especially if we're undefeated or close to it. They're not going to role over and die on the Plains. If we think they will then we may very well be looking at another Utah. This game scares me more than any other we play.
How many times have we beaten them down there since that first game in 1989?? Once sounds like the correct answer to me, unless I'm wrong.

We can't let down our guard against these guys. It won't be easy.
Click to expand...

Bama has actually outplayed the line in Jordan-Hare since having to play there - though only 2-7. Bama has not lost as a favorite there, unless it was the first one or possibly '93; and '89 AU should have been the favorite.

Bama will likely crush AU this year. They will probably be a pansy team, especially vulnerable to the physical team that Bama is. Bama is far superior in talent and coaching.

It has long been a myth that "you can throw out the record books when Bama and AU play". It is one rivalry that has hewed the line almost always - few upsets ('49, '72 (even then AU was 10-1) and '84 the only "real" upsets). AU almost never beats Bama bad (I think only once in 50 years has it been over 10 points - 1969, even then Bama was with 8 with 7 mins left), though Bama has stomped AU often (by more than 10 17 times since ‘61, including 10 times 24 or more, Bama’s last 4 wins have been by more than 10 points, including the last 2 by 36 and 24).

IMO, it will be a tremendous surprise if Bama has to even sweat at all on the plains this year.

An aside: AU has no chance against Bama or LSU, little chance with UGA. They will be underdogs against UT, Ark and OM and most likely lose each. WVU and UK will be tossups – they will be fortunate to split. La Tech has a decent shot at the upset and MSU has an outside shot. Their only gimmes will be Furman (a good 1-AA program) and Ball State. Just an opinion.
 
Hamilton said:

  • OM has no intrinsic attraction

    Umm...the insanely hot women of loose morals and players being allowed to do whatever the hell they want is an attraction to the more thuggish types.

  • Nutt is great motivator, a good coach, and a lazy recruiter

    Nutt is a great motivator. He is not a good coach. He had the good fortune of playing against Shula during his "prime" at Arkansas. He consistently makes horrible decisions on AND off the sidelines, and few coaches fall for his gimmicky play-calling. I don't know if he's a lazy recruiter; I do know that he's a bad one.

  • MSU, Bama and LSU cause OM great trouble in Mississippi. i.e., they will never sew up the in-state talent. Miss talent is not close to enough anyway. Alabama which has more talent than Miss, is not nearly enough for Bama this year; and Bama has a much greater lock on Ala talent than OM on Miss talent.

    I can agree with Bama and LSU causing OM trouble with recruiting. But MSU? No...not unless a kid as already been devoted to MSU his entire life, in which case that's not so much MSU causing OM trouble as it is the kid being born into the MSU family.

  • Nutt/OM are living off of Orgeron's tireless and ?? recruiting. It will run out in a couple of years. Big drop off next year really, esp if Snead goes pro. They will lose 8 starters on O, including Snead, McCluster, Hodge and Jerry (in fact, 3 OL; and 6 starters on D, including Hardy, Tillman, Trahan (best/star LB) and Green (in fact, 3 of 4 in secondary). i.e., they will return 8 of 22 starters.

    You nailed it. I also think they're living off Nutt being able to talk a big game. Ogre landed good recruits, but it was obvious anytime after about 30 seconds of opening his mouth that he was a dumbarse and that he would be a failure as a head coach. Nutt has the head coach personality, but he does not have the head coach intellect.

  • Bama and LSU will be the big dogs in the West for the foreseeable future, with Bama almost sure to be the bigger one, primarily because of coaching.

    I definitely agree here. How anyone could think otherwise is mind-boggling. If folks are failing to give LSU props due to Les Miles and his...shortcomings...they obviously haven't taken note of Nutt's antics over the years.
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We disagree about OM's intrinsic attraction - specifically that that is an intrinsic attraction.

Nutt is smart enough to play a physical brand of football. He has won more games with only decent overall talent at Ark than most could have. Saban recommended him for the LSU job when he left and has often commented that he thinks he gets more out of his talent than anyone else. I agree that Nutt is...well nutty from time to time; but his results are hard to overlook. He took Ark to the SECC champ game twice and almost 1 more time. He is 5-6 with Bama and LSU , and 6-5 with AU in his 10 years at Ark and 1 at OM. Hard to deny that that is impressive - at Ark and OM.

MSU is a big problem for OM in recruiting. They were last year, vastly outrecruiting OM in-state. They may not do that again, but they will almost certainly be OM's primary problem in-state. We'll see.
 
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