I have added a link to your post in the 401k thread links section
Personal Finance Financial Planning & Investing
- Thread starter BamaNation
- Start date
What’s the opinion on here regarding Uber as a long term investment? I bought a few shares after it tanked right after their IPO a while back. Just curious.
Well, if you've been reading what I've previously posted, you'll know that I am generally against individual stock investments beyond maybe a 5%-of-your-net-worth-amount as "play money" and this only after you've maxed out all your other pre-tax options and paid off debt. Treat it like your pocket gambling funds and when it goes to 0 you're out of that game for life
My view would be selling it at whatever its value is now and investing in an asset allocation that is comfortable or using it to offset increasing pre-tax 401k / IRA amounts. Alternatively, hold onto it and let it ride - especially if you don't need the funds - but don't buy more.
Now, if you've just got money burning a hole in your pocket and have nowhere to max out anything else, sure, play the market up to that 5% max but value it all at 0 with no expectation of actually ever making any money on it (at least until the day you've sold it). Always assume that you know far less than wall street traders ... and they know nothing.
In all seriousness, the reason for this philosophy is exactly what you mention: stock that shoots up or falls based on things that are esoteric, uncontrollable, unreasonable, unknowable, etc. Instead of individual stock picking or market timing, investing in a total stock market index fund (like VTI or VTSAX) beats just about every other imaginable stock/fund picking strategy over time about 90% of the time - a number that is pretty consistent based on lots of reliable published research. Sure, one might be in the 10% that gets lucky but I'm not tying my savings & assets to a 10% chance.
Whether you follow this or not is certainly a personal call, but I would definitely suggest reading some of the books I've identified previously to at least understand the philosophy and facts you're up against when trying to stock-pick individual non-index funds or stocks.
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IOW:Well, if you've been reading what I've previously posted, you'll know that I am generally against individual stock investments beyond maybe a 5%-of-your-net-worth-amount as "play money" and this only after you've maxed out all your other pre-tax options and paid off debt. Treat it like your pocket gambling funds and when it goes to 0 you're out of that game for life
My view would be selling it at whatever its value is now and investing in an asset allocation that is comfortable or using it to offset increasing pre-tax 401k / IRA amounts. Alternatively, hold onto it and let it ride - especially if you don't need the funds - but don't buy more.
Now, if you've just got money burning a hole in your pocket and have nowhere to max out anything else, sure, play the market up to that 5% max but value it all at 0 with no expectation of actually ever making any money on it (at least until the day you've sold it). Always assume that you know far less than wall street traders ... and they know nothing.
In all seriousness, the reason for this philosophy is exactly what you mention: stock that shoots up or falls based on things that are esoteric, uncontrollable, unreasonable, unknowable, etc. Instead of individual stock picking or market timing, investing in a total stock market index fund (like VTI or VTSAX) beats just about every other imaginable stock/fund picking strategy over time about 90% of the time - a number that is pretty consistent based on lots of reliable published research. Sure, one might be in the 10% that gets lucky but I'm not tying my savings & assets to a 10% chance.
Whether you follow this or not is certainly a personal call, but I would definitely suggest reading some of the books I've identified previously to at least understand the philosophy and facts you're up against when trying to stock-pick individual non-index funds or stocks.
There isn’t a lot of difference between (1) buying individual stocks, and (2) gambling.
Investing, on the other hand, is constructing a diversified portfolio, and letting exponential arithmetic do the rest.
Apparently my broker has been trying to call me for weeks. He wants to change some of my mutual funds around plus add a more aggressive one to get my some more bang for my buck. He had my old old old contact numbers for email and phone (work).
Be sure you understand how your broker makes money. He might tell you his services are free. Garbage. You don’t design buildings for free, and he doesn’t do what he does for free. Nor should he.
Ultimately though, however he gets paid, just be fully cognizant of the fact that you are the cash cow.
Not saying that his recommendations are or are not warranted. But when he’s beating down your door for a long time trying to get you out of one investment vehicle into another, I’d want to have a crystal-clear understanding of why.
On the “aggressive” vehicle: Aggressive = riskier. If you do not believe in Santa Claus or the Tooth Fairy, you cannot believe that you can get high return with low to average risk.
That‘s not all bad, and if you’re in it for the long haul (i.e. multiple business cycles), and can stomach higher volatility, it might not be a bad idea. But you would be buying in while the market is at an all-time high, so you need to be eyes open to the elevated risk.
You need to understand exactly what the higher risk is, why the marginal return outweighs the marginal risk (otherwise why do it at all?), and what the downside is.
Is it companies in developing countries? If so, there’s lots of associated political instability / risk. There’s a reason it’s 2021 and they’re still “developing”.
Is it concentrated in an industry (e.g., cannabis, EV technology)? If so, lots of legal, and regulatory risk on the cannabis side, and lots of technological and potential regulatory risk on the EV side, whether you’re talking vehicles or components like batteries.
Bottom Line: Understand how your broker gets paid, understand the risks and downside you’d be taking on, and understand why the newly-constructed portfolio would fit your investment goals and time horizon better than the existing one does.
I would add that you need to ask yourself why you even need a broker? Might be time to fire him!
There's a reason why this book exists:
If you need a broker to keep track of your investments, there's a high likelihood that your asset allocation is way too complex. "Juicing" it to get "more bang for the buck" usually means more risk-taking without an appropriate reward (relative to the increased risk) as 4Q so eloquently points out and additional fees paid to the broker/advisor and/or putting you in an active fund that is hard to get out of cheaply.
Y'all know my view of this stuff but it bears repeating!
source: Getting started - Bogleheads
could be that all you need is a one-time-fee-only advisor to get you setup correctly and then you could just manage it yourself and the only fee you would pay would be the ones everybody has to pay to the fund.
If you're paying more than about 0.3% of your invested assets, you're paying way too much, IMHO. I think our overall expense ratio in 2020 was less than 0.1% across all accounts & investments (i.e. 401ks + non-retirement).
... and one more thing ... don't worry about what friends / family killing it in crypto or 100% in AMC/GME/TSLA are doing. Their risk-reward is not rational.
There's a reason why this book exists:
If you need a broker to keep track of your investments, there's a high likelihood that your asset allocation is way too complex. "Juicing" it to get "more bang for the buck" usually means more risk-taking without an appropriate reward (relative to the increased risk) as 4Q so eloquently points out and additional fees paid to the broker/advisor and/or putting you in an active fund that is hard to get out of cheaply.
Y'all know my view of this stuff but it bears repeating!
| The Bogleheads® Philosophy |
|---|
|
could be that all you need is a one-time-fee-only advisor to get you setup correctly and then you could just manage it yourself and the only fee you would pay would be the ones everybody has to pay to the fund.
If you're paying more than about 0.3% of your invested assets, you're paying way too much, IMHO. I think our overall expense ratio in 2020 was less than 0.1% across all accounts & investments (i.e. 401ks + non-retirement).
... and one more thing ... don't worry about what friends / family killing it in crypto or 100% in AMC/GME/TSLA are doing. Their risk-reward is not rational.
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So, most of the discussion here is about equity investments. I did some trading myself after graduating b-school (started off in investment banking), but I have long since hired wealth managers to do most of this. I just don’t have the time and haven't kept up the skill level to do this on a grand scale. My background is more in real estate investing. This past year has been quite a run for my wife and me. I’ve been in Florida almost three years, and my initial market research involved finding a spot we liked to have our house built. We moved into the new home in April of last year. After that, I turned my attention to investment properties.
I found a local builder that built a product that would be perfect for the investments that interested me. These are small, cottage-style 2/2 homes in St. Augustine. At the time, he had eight houses about to come on the market. I bought all eight last November. That certainly made an impression on him.
Took a little break from investing to move my Mom to the area this past March. Found her a nice ranch house on six wooded acres with a pond in the back. Had to replace the hideous pink carpet with vinyl plank flooring and added some fencing in the back for her pets.
Once I got Mom settled (although with her memory issues, “settled” is not realistic for much longer), I went back to working with the same builder. He contacted me in the Summer and offered two 3/2 homes that he was breaking ground on. My wife and I added those to the portfolio. Like a lot of places, rents have been rising quickly. Market rate has us clearing $1000/month on these two houses.
We are looking to balance out our portfolio and are looking at commercial property. We are eyeing a plaza with 11 units on US 1. All units have long term tenants, and we are looking to have leases extended a couple of years before we commit. If no snags, we can close on it in the Oct/Nov timeframe.
Not sure how much more aggressive we’ll be. Depends on the opportunities.
I found a local builder that built a product that would be perfect for the investments that interested me. These are small, cottage-style 2/2 homes in St. Augustine. At the time, he had eight houses about to come on the market. I bought all eight last November. That certainly made an impression on him.
Took a little break from investing to move my Mom to the area this past March. Found her a nice ranch house on six wooded acres with a pond in the back. Had to replace the hideous pink carpet with vinyl plank flooring and added some fencing in the back for her pets.
Once I got Mom settled (although with her memory issues, “settled” is not realistic for much longer), I went back to working with the same builder. He contacted me in the Summer and offered two 3/2 homes that he was breaking ground on. My wife and I added those to the portfolio. Like a lot of places, rents have been rising quickly. Market rate has us clearing $1000/month on these two houses.
We are looking to balance out our portfolio and are looking at commercial property. We are eyeing a plaza with 11 units on US 1. All units have long term tenants, and we are looking to have leases extended a couple of years before we commit. If no snags, we can close on it in the Oct/Nov timeframe.
Not sure how much more aggressive we’ll be. Depends on the opportunities.
That is a impressive portfolio that you have put together. We began some small real estate investing in the Huntsville area but the housing market has quickly turned into a sellers market and prices are in the stratosphere. We had an opportunity to purchase some very nice builder developed residential properties similar to those you purchased. Our conservatism kept us from pulling the trigger but these would have been excellent investments as I know yours have been.
My insurance agent became a significant property developer in North Alabama and ultimately became involved with major out of state developers due to his reputation with the banks. Of course 2008 happened and he lost practically everything through Chapter 11. Now he is back expanding his insurance business. It is always the case of not becoming overly leveraged in order to weather the inevitable downturns.
A lot of the decision on whether to invest in income-producing commercial real estate (IPCRE) or not comes down to management. As in, somebody has to do it. Who?
Does the investor have the skill set to collect rents as they’re due, pursue recalcitrant tenants, maintain the properties, acquire new tenants as old one roll off, and market the properties for sale when the time comes?
If so, IPCRE can provide excess returns (defined as something over the long-term return on equities).
If not, the investor has to pay someone else to do all that, and the excess returns tend to reduce or evaporate altogether.
Note: This doesn’t include the headaches of outside market interference — like bans on evictions. There’s a lot of landlords out there right now who aren’t getting rent, are still obligated to maintain the properties, and can do nothing to change the situation.
Real estate, maybe in the form of REITs and maybe in the form of direct ownership, does have a place in a diversified portfolio. But not because of increased returns (over the long haul, REITs tend to return about the same as stocks).
The cool thing about real estate is that, while it has ups and downs, they tend to be un-correlated with the stock market’s ups and downs. So IPCRE tends to have a moderating effect on returns, and smooth them out.
The not-so-cool thing is that every 15-20 years or so, there’s a godamighty nasty downturn. The first one I can personally remember was in the mid-1970s. Then there was one in the early 1990s. Then the one everybody remembers in 2008-10. Interspersed in there were more localized downturns in Texas, Florida and California.
If you’re not leveraged, have the skill set to manage the properties yourself, and have the stomach to stick with it through the troughs (and they’re nasty), direct ownership of real estate can be a money–maker.
I’m not much of a tax guy, but one note on that: the IRS will get their cut. It’s just a matter of when. A lot of people talk about the huge benefits of depreciation on the cash flow of IPCRE estate. And they’re right…..until it comes time to sell the property.
I’m sure there are all sorts of, “Yeah, but…”s in the tax code, but a greatly simplified version is this:
When you sell the property, the gain is the difference between the sales price and your tax basis. When you deduct depreciation on the property from income, you simultaneously reduce your tax basis in that property. Which increases your gain when you sell. So while the cash flow boost is nice while it lasts, you will eventually pay the piper / IRS.
The good news there is that the depreciation is a deduction against current income, at applicable tax rates. In all likelihood, the tax on the final sale, even if the property is fully depreciated (i.e., has a tax basis of $0), will be figured at Capital Gains rates. Which, for most real estate investors, are significantly less than current income tax rates. For now, anyway.…Congress is forever threatening to jigger with the Capital Gains tax rate.
You do get to increase your basis (and thereby reduce your gain) when you improve the property. But you don’t get to increase the basis if you’re just maintaining it. Adding a deck is an improvement. Re-doing the kitchen is an improvement.
Replacing a leaky roof or a crapped-out AC are both maintenance, and represent immediate cash out. They do represent an expense deduction in the current year, but they have no effect on the tax basis of the property.
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ETA:
* This builder has investor financing for his houses. The investors make payments at each of the five steps in the building process, with the builder getting his profit along the way. No carry cost or risk for him. The investor gets the house, which is lined up to sell upon delivery or shortly thereafter. With all the business I've done last winter through the summer, I've been invited to play with the cool kids. The first house I invested in should be sold next week. A second she be done the end of next month. This has been a very good business relationship. Looking to keep it rolling for the foreseeable future.
** The commercial building has had the roof, HVAC, and plumbing replaced in the last couple of years. Should not have any big expenses for years to come.
Regarding the houses....you and the other investors are essentially builder financing. I'm not clear as to whether the houses are pre-sold before breaking ground, or are spec with the buyer to be identified at some point in the future. I'm also not clear as to whether you receive interest on your advances, but if the builder has "no cost of carry," I'm guessing not.
Either way, keep in mind, you're being offered the opportunity to invest not because you're in the cool kid group. You're in because you're offering terms that the bank doesn't....namely the opportunity to get his profit along the way. Plus, if my guess is right, no interest payments along the way. IOW, the builder has less skin in the game. No bank would ever agree to either of those things.
Banks know that the riskiest part of any real estate project is the construction phase. So they're pretty dang strict on progress inspections, retainage, etc., etc. They have God's own amount of process designed to ensure that they're never "upside down," having funded more into the project than its percentage of completion. Even so, they still get burned occasionally.
So long as the current market prevails, and the builder is trustworthy, you should be all good. You have two risks to manage.
First is that you've forked over money before the house has actually reached the stated percentage of completion. The end game is that you've put in what you thought would be 100% of your money, but the house is only, say, 80% complete. Your options are to fork over more money to complete the house or try to sell it as is. Neither option is particularly palatable or profitable.
In my experience, that situation usually arises as a result of any of three things:
1. The builder under-estimated the cost to build, or
2. The partially completed home gets damaged or destroyed (say by a tornado, hurricane or just pure vandalism), and insurance is insufficient to cover.
3. The builder has other projects going that needed some cash, and he took some of your money and put it into the struggling project in which you have no documented investment interest. Sometimes your money might jump through a few hoops to get from your checking account to the struggling project, but those are the starting and ending points.
During my banking career, I also saw a few instances where a builder had other uses for cash that had nothing to do with homebuilding -- almost invariably they fell into any or all of three categories: gambling, drugs / alcohol, and women.
The second risk is that there is no buyer at a price that takes out the investors' position. Not a huge risk right now, but it has been a material risk at other points in other real estate cycles.
While we're on "alternative" investments...
For those inexperienced in things like managing (or building or restoring) properties, I would suggest real estate would most likely be an "alternative investment." REITs as suggested by 4Q above as part of an understood and intentional diversification strategy because of the non-correlated behavior can be viewed as a separate asset class (instead of alternatives). Again, if the underlying funding investments are (and can be) understood.
I don't encourage the following - at all - but if you want to have a portion of your portfolio to "play" with .... More broadly, alternative investments can be an "additive" speculative play in your overall portfolio but shouldn't be a significant portion and certainly not the whole portfolio. I would include crypto, individual stocks, options, complex financial arrangements, gambling funds, etc. in my definition of alternatives. Individual stocks obviously aren't "alternative" but I'm including them here as part of "how to handle them" below:
What one should do if alternatives are desired, is limit the investment in these alternative strategies to NO MORE than 5% of the overall portfolio. This means if you have $10,000 in the portfolio, limit to $500; $100,000, limit to $5000, $1,000,000, limit to $50,000 and so forth. But this is hard for most people to control because these alternatives tend to have large moves both ways where behavioral economics take over and the investor overcompensates. Thus, most people should never start because the addiction high and then the crash can be hard to limit and manage.
For those inexperienced in things like managing (or building or restoring) properties, I would suggest real estate would most likely be an "alternative investment." REITs as suggested by 4Q above as part of an understood and intentional diversification strategy because of the non-correlated behavior can be viewed as a separate asset class (instead of alternatives). Again, if the underlying funding investments are (and can be) understood.
I don't encourage the following - at all - but if you want to have a portion of your portfolio to "play" with .... More broadly, alternative investments can be an "additive" speculative play in your overall portfolio but shouldn't be a significant portion and certainly not the whole portfolio. I would include crypto, individual stocks, options, complex financial arrangements, gambling funds, etc. in my definition of alternatives. Individual stocks obviously aren't "alternative" but I'm including them here as part of "how to handle them" below:
What one should do if alternatives are desired, is limit the investment in these alternative strategies to NO MORE than 5% of the overall portfolio. This means if you have $10,000 in the portfolio, limit to $500; $100,000, limit to $5000, $1,000,000, limit to $50,000 and so forth. But this is hard for most people to control because these alternatives tend to have large moves both ways where behavioral economics take over and the investor overcompensates. Thus, most people should never start because the addiction high and then the crash can be hard to limit and manage.
Great article from Morningstar on the effects of lifestyle creep.
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www.morningstar.com
My favorite part: You’ve gotten some raises over the past few years. You decide that you’ve earned an upgraded car, neighborhood, club membership etc., etc., whatever. After all…what are you working for?
That sounds a lot different from, “What should I do with this money? I know! I’ll make a few decisions that will make retirement both more expensive and farther into the future! That’s the ticket!”
Two sides of the same coin.
How to Save More and Need Less for Retirement
Lifestyle upgrades add up and have consequences for your today and tomorrow.
My favorite part: You’ve gotten some raises over the past few years. You decide that you’ve earned an upgraded car, neighborhood, club membership etc., etc., whatever. After all…what are you working for?
That sounds a lot different from, “What should I do with this money? I know! I’ll make a few decisions that will make retirement both more expensive and farther into the future! That’s the ticket!”
Two sides of the same coin.
Good post. Let add some more context. Yes, I am now part of the group that is builder financing. These are spec houses, but the houses are pretty much sold before completion. No interest received, but I do make a 25% +/- return for laying out some money for about five months. Wash, rinse, repeat as long as the market is strong.
My comment about the cool kid group .... He doesn’t need me to invest in his business. He’s had a team put together for years. He offered out of the blue to let me participate. As I mentioned earlier, my wife and I apparently made a good impression on him. I was introduced to the other investors, and one of the guys has the same story. The builder took a liking to him and offered the opportunity to invest. I’ve done my homework on this guy. He has a reputation of being very generous with his friends. Dude is a happy-go-lucky Samoan; everybody likes him. But, yes, his investment team offers him a far better deal than a bank. And the return we get is incredible. Win-win.
He’s been in business a long time, but only builds about 15-25 modestly-priced homes a year. Very little risk, although the ones you point out are legitimate concerns. As I mentioned, I asked around about him and did the research. No reputation for gambling, drugs, alcohol, or women. A good meal is his vice, but the dude is Samoan …
Bernie Madoff was loved by all, and 100% of his clients swore by him. Be careful out there.Good post. Let add some more context. Yes, I am now part of the group that is builder financing. These are spec houses, but the houses are pretty much sold before completion. No interest received, but I do make a 25% +/- return for laying out some money for about five months. Wash, rinse, repeat as long as the market is strong.
My comment about the cool kid group .... He doesn’t need me to invest in his business. He’s had a team put together for years. He offered out of the blue to let me participate. As I mentioned earlier, my wife and I apparently made a good impression on him. I was introduced to the other investors, and one of the guys has the same story. The builder took a liking to him and offered the opportunity to invest. I’ve done my homework on this guy. He has a reputation of being very generous with his friends. Dude is a happy-go-lucky Samoan; everybody likes him. But, yes, his investment team offers him a far better deal than a bank. And the return we get is incredible. Win-win.
He’s been in business a long time, but only builds about 15-25 modestly-priced homes a year. Very little risk, although the ones you point out are legitimate concerns. As I mentioned, I asked around about him and did the research. No reputation for gambling, drugs, alcohol, or women. A good meal is his vice, but the dude is Samoan …
Should I be concerned that the name of the community is called "Ponzi Estates"?
@BamaNation @4Q Basket Case
Fantastic thread, thanks guys!!!
I’ve been in my 401 for about 18 years now, wasted the first couple years being too stupid to know better. We aren’t truly maxing it out yet, but should be close with another raise soon. That’s all going well, really well actually.
I know this goes against the wisdom offered so far from you fellas, but here goes.
A couple months ago Mrs. Tug ( I smile as I type that ) asked what I thought about setting up a day trading account. I think she really means short term trading but whatever.
My response to her was “wait until it’s cold enough to use the fireplace the first time this year. Then decide how much you’re willing to take out of savings and put in the fire. That’s how much we will start a trading account with.”
She’s notoriously tight with a penny so the whole thing caught me off guard. Anyways it got a little cool this weekend and she and the boys built a fire (I’m on the boat). So I asked this morning if she decided how much she was willing to “burn”. I expected her to respond somewhere in my definition of the “play money” range. She raised my eyebrows with a number that shocked me. Personally I’d rather drive to Biloxi and dump it all the table but she’s determined to try this out. We’re currently negotiating over the “burn” amount.
I don’t know if my perspective is right here, but I’m trying to decide on a figure that I’m comfortable loosing, while also ultimately saying “I told you so”.
How much is it worth to finally be right once in 20 years of marriage??
From the stock traders here, I’m looking for recommendations for online firm to start with. And also a couple decent resources for her to read.
Fantastic thread, thanks guys!!!
I’ve been in my 401 for about 18 years now, wasted the first couple years being too stupid to know better. We aren’t truly maxing it out yet, but should be close with another raise soon. That’s all going well, really well actually.
I know this goes against the wisdom offered so far from you fellas, but here goes.
A couple months ago Mrs. Tug ( I smile as I type that ) asked what I thought about setting up a day trading account. I think she really means short term trading but whatever.
My response to her was “wait until it’s cold enough to use the fireplace the first time this year. Then decide how much you’re willing to take out of savings and put in the fire. That’s how much we will start a trading account with.”
She’s notoriously tight with a penny so the whole thing caught me off guard. Anyways it got a little cool this weekend and she and the boys built a fire (I’m on the boat). So I asked this morning if she decided how much she was willing to “burn”. I expected her to respond somewhere in my definition of the “play money” range. She raised my eyebrows with a number that shocked me. Personally I’d rather drive to Biloxi and dump it all the table but she’s determined to try this out. We’re currently negotiating over the “burn” amount.
I don’t know if my perspective is right here, but I’m trying to decide on a figure that I’m comfortable loosing, while also ultimately saying “I told you so”.
How much is it worth to finally be right once in 20 years of marriage??
From the stock traders here, I’m looking for recommendations for online firm to start with. And also a couple decent resources for her to read.
Day-trading is so antithetical to my investing philosophy that I don’t even know any companies to recommend, good bad or indifferent. Your intuition is right, though….it’s pure-D gambling, so you might as well go to a casino and bet. At least there you get to drink “free” booze and look at scantily-clad women.
My suggestion would be to ask how much you’d be willing to lose on a single football bet, and how much you’d be willing to lose if you went o-fer on a weekend full of bets, and still say you had fun.
Those are the amounts I’d be willing to have (1) in any single trade, and (2) total amount at risk at any one time, in a day-trading account. For me personally, both of those numbers would be pretty small.
Also, something else to be careful on — most of those places, if not all, offer margin accounts. Which is a fancy way of saying that you’re gambling with borrowed money.
They’re about as dangerous as a loaded gun with a hair trigger. Somewhat counter-intuitively, that’s especially true if the trader / gambler has ever had a hot streak. It inevitably turns on them. They think the hot streak was because of their acumen, and they’re just going through an unlucky patch.
The next trade is a head-and-shoulders, stochastic, triple witching day, upside down and backwards, left-handed something-or-other, and can’t lose. So it’s going to be the one that gets them out of the hole. So exactly like more traditional gamblers, they double down.
It’s just that for some long, sad, shaggy-dog reason, it doesn’t work, and the problem gets exponentially worse — only now you owe money, plus interest at really high rates (trust me, the day-trading company isn’t gambling with its own money any more than the “house” Is in a casino).
Which brings me to the point — you’re looking at it right. It should be the amount you can burn up in a fire and say, “Man, it was fun watching that fire!”
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