First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 - ???)

[russtang]

Re: Tonights the first Playoff Poll is released - YOUR prediction? (update: Bama #4)

Seems the committee is setting the stage for various scenarios involving the winner of lsu/BAMA winning out and meeting the winner of an ole miss/UF SECCG in the CFB playoffs.


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Nailed it...

If LSU wins out, Ole Miss doesn't play in the SECCG and Bama would have two conf. losses.

The only way the winner of Bama/LSU could play the winner of Ole Miss/UF SECCG winner would be if Bama wins out, Ole Miss wins out, UF wins out and beats Ole Miss in SECCG AND Baylor, TCU, OSU, MSU, Ok St. lose a game and even then you could still have an undefeated Memphis, a one loss ND or one loss PAC12 champ Stanford or one loss Big12 champ Oklahoma getting in over Bama.

I'm sure I missed a few scenarios too.

Zero chance all that happens IMO.

 

[russtang]

Why in the heck are so many people over at ESPN pretending like Alabama's SoS isn't top 10? Their SoS is silly high, their schedule is very hard. They can talk about SoS, but when it came to Alabama they just forgot how to use the word, or what it means. Pretty poor journalism.

Anyway... here's a couple bold predictions.

A: Ole Miss will not, will not jump Alabama unless Alabama loses again. Period. The SEC would be left out in the cold completely before Ole Miss gets in, in that scenario.
B: Notre Dame is not jumping Alabama unless Alabama loses. They just lack the ammunition. Alabama has Miss. State and LSU coming up, Notre Dame doesn't have an answer for that.

Yeah Alabama has a SOS from 1-5 depending on where you look. Some media just can't accept it.

"What about Memphis" they say. Why are they getting shafted? They beat Ole Miss an SEC team that beat Alabama"
Pat Forde wrote an article and was just "baffled" why Memphis isn't in the top ten even when their SOS is in the thirties.
I bet Tim Brando has doubled his meds. lol

Baylor and TCU have an FPI and SOS ahead of OSU and Baylor has had most games won by the second quarter while OSU has struggled with bad teams in the third and 4th quarter yet OSU is 3-5 spots ahead of them.

They talk most about SOS yet projections and the "eye test" are a big part of the rankings.

Just like last year they are going to be inconsistent with their given criteria depending on the team.

 

[pyro]

I think we still need to win the SEC championship game. Just my take.

 

[theballguy]

I told you guys -- the committee knows what they're doing!

 

[CoastGhost]

Re: Tonights the first Playoff Poll release. What's YOUR prediction.

I have no faith in this elite panel, they have Bama #4 because they know it's meaningless and it will bring in more revenue and fuel the monster game next week. My opinion is that Bama would not be #4 if this was the final poll, maybe 5 or 6. I would bet that if you had Vegas pair every top ten team against each other, that Bama would be the one team favored in every game. The real game of the year will be Bama vs Florida in the SECCG. Bama handles LSU, LSU handles Ole Miss.

I agree 100% - This generates massive out of network viewership for the Bama-LSU game and the loser will absolutely be dropped out of the subsequent poll with one of the Big Puff teams replacing them (replacing LSU ). This is about money.

 

[64met]

Re: Tonights the first Playoff Poll release. What's YOUR prediction.

Happy we are at four. However, ELATED to watch the meltdown out there with all the Bama haters!

RTR!

 

[Redwood Forrest]

Re: Tonights the first Playoff Poll release. What's YOUR prediction.

Seriously. Have the squawkers looked at TCU and Baylor schedules? Seriously.

 

[Redwood Forrest]

Re: Tonights the first Playoff Poll release. What's YOUR prediction.

I have to say that I like the committee looking at Notre Dame and Clemson playing in a driving rainstorm, Bama playing Georgia while they had their starting QB and Chubb and were undefeated. Of course I know I won't always agree with them but things like this do matter.

 

[bama579]

Why in the heck are so many people over at ESPN pretending like Alabama's SoS isn't top 10? Their SoS is silly high, their schedule is very hard. They can talk about SoS, but when it came to Alabama they just forgot how to use the word, or what it means. Pretty poor journalism.

Anyway... here's a couple bold predictions.

A: Ole Miss will not, will not jump Alabama unless Alabama loses again. Period. The SEC would be left out in the cold completely before Ole Miss gets in, in that scenario.
B: Notre Dame is not jumping Alabama unless Alabama loses. They just lack the ammunition. Alabama has Miss. State and LSU coming up, Notre Dame doesn't have an answer for that.

Pardon my cynicism toward the worldwide leader, but it may be as simple as knowing that enraged Alabama fans will will send Flitter, Bookface, and interweb hits soaring. Then the responders add another huge bump.

Maybe?

 

[B1GTide]

Re: Tonights the first Playoff Poll release. What's YOUR prediction.

Just remember - this means nothing unless Alabama wins out. Lose and all of these talking heads will be saying, "I told you that Alabama didn't belong."

LSU - Saturday - all that matters.

 

[trenda]

Re: Tonights the first Playoff Poll release. What's YOUR prediction.

I think Stanford would have to lose another game (Notre Dame?) for it to happen. Or, the Big 12 would have to have a two-loss champ (possible but unlikely). If they win the SEC AND one of these two scenarios don't occur, I believe Memphis gets in provided they run their schedule. The committee seemed to clearly favor an undefeated Memphis team over two-loss teams.

Wouldn't it be something if the playoff looked like this...
* Undefeated Big 10 team
* Undefeated/one-loss ACC team
* Undefeated/one-loss Big 12 team
* Undefeated Memphis (over two-loss Stanford/Ole Miss teams)

ESPN showed last night that they are jumping on the Memphis bandwagon. And we all know how that works. They are going to hype the crud out of Memphis as long as they keep winning. This is why I think Memphis is a big hurdle for us. If we win out and Memphis wins out, the hype machine is going to push the fact that they beat Ole Miss and we didn't. They will also own wins over currently ranked Houston and Temple. They will have a potential Heisman candidate in Paxton Lynch. There will be a wave of support to put "one of the little guys in." Add in national anti-SEC sentiment and you've got yourself another "1997" (when ESPN effectively hyped Charles Woodson to the Heisman). Now, will the committee tune all of this out? That's the question. For this week, at least, they put Bama where they thought we belong.

This a balancing act for sure. All we can do is win out - convincingly - and let the cards fall where they may.

 

[pengoulin]

Re: Tonights the first Playoff Poll release. What's YOUR prediction.

I didn't read the thread but I am surprised at the rankings. None of it really matters at this point, it will all work itself out in the upcoming weeks anyway.

 

[Loam]

What happens if Ole Miss and us both win out? (It's being discussed in the PP thread)

Lets pretend that we both win out, which is a possibility.

What do you guys and gals see the committee doing in that situation? Ole Miss is a two loss SEC Champion. Alabama only has one loss which is to Ole Miss.

I think that situation could get interesting.

Would the committee put us into the final playoff 4 anyway? And leave Ole Miss out?

 

[Tideflyer]

Re: What happens if Ole Miss and us both win out?

Lets pretend that we both win out, which is a possibility.

What do you guys and gals see the committee doing in that situation? Ole Miss is a two loss SEC Champion. Alabama only has one loss which is to Ole Miss.

I think that situation could get interesting.

Would the committee put us into the final playoff 4 anyway? And leave Ole Miss out?

Don`t think so. If OM wins out, they go to the SECCG, we don`t. IMHO, our "winning out" would have to include an SECCG win as well for us to finally make it into the final 4.

 

[Loam]

Re: What happens if Ole Miss and us both win out?

Don`t think so. If OM wins out, they go to the SECCG, we don`t. IMHO, our "winning out" would have to include an SECCG win as well for us to finally make it into the final 4.

We are already voted in. We are #4 in that poll right now and Ole Miss is ranked #18.

So you're saying that if Ole Miss wins out, they'll torpedo the SEC leaving the entire conference out of the final playoff 4? I don't see Ole Miss getting in with two losses.

 

[G8RNGA]

Okay the poll is a bit of a head-scratcher for anyone outside of Birmingham or their fans! Let me begin by saying I'm excited we have two SEC teams in the top 4, that Florida is in the top 10, and that a few teams were not placed higher than they needed to be. I also think Florida is a little low and was hoping for somewhere between 6-8. I will use UF as an example of why it's a bit head scratching. Now, on to a few facts that don't justify UAs 4th best team placement.

1. Florida's best win was over #18, while Alabama lost to #18.
2. Alabama's best win was over #19, while Florida lost to #2.
3. Cumulative record of the teams Alabama has faced is 37-30.
4. Cumulative record of the teams Florida has faced is 36-29.

I'm not advocating Florida to be in the top 4, but how can one be justified and the other not? I've heard that the committee felt that when we played UGA it was without Chubb and their starting QB. Florida can't help that Chubb was injured or that Richt decided to play his 3rd string QB for no justified reason! C'mon man!

Just needing to be Captain Obvious here!

 

[Tideflyer]

Re: Tonights the first Playoff Poll release. What's YOUR prediction.

Just remember - this means nothing unless Alabama wins out. Lose and all of these talking heads will be saying, "I told you that Alabama didn't belong."

LSU - Saturday - all that matters.

Truer words were never spoken. Everything else is just static.

 

[CajunCrimson]

Re: What happens if Ole Miss and us both win out?

My opinion only, but regardless of what the fans and certain parts of the media want, there will be an SEC team in Final Four, if they have 0 or 1 loss. There is no way you value SOS and leave the best conference out.

Ole Miss won't get in regardless.

At this point, it's Bama, LSU or Florida

So Yes, Bama or LSU can get in without playing in Conference Championship

 

[G8RNGA]

By the way, I was really hoping for an SECCG of Alabama and Florida like the old days prior to this! The storylines would be off the chart. Now? We need LSU to win out and have a rematch in the SECCG, unless I'm seeing this incorrectly.

 

[tidefanbeezer]

Re: Analysis of First Playoff Poll

I'm not sure I agree with your premise on this one. The committee is well aware that having a 4-team playoff is usually going to result in one Power 5 conference whining about being left out. That's a major annual burden to bear for the committee - one that would likely happen 3 out of every 4 years. The best way for the committee to get some relief from this type of scrutiny would be to put an Alabama ahead of a one-loss Big 12 conference champion. The outcry would be great enough that expansion to eight teams could occur prematurely.

Well, you cut out the first half of my post where I explain why I made that statement.

I'm speaking specifically of this year. Notre Dame is helped by an improved Temple and Navy, making their schedule a little more daunting than past years. Add in an improving USC and potential Pac-12 champion Stanford and that's a pretty decent schedule. Throw in that their only loss is a close one on the road to the top seeded team (assuming Clemson wins out) and I don't think its a stretch that ND would be taken over a 1-loss team that didn't win a conference title. This year, given the choice between a 1-loss ND and the choice between a 1-loss team that didn't win its conference, I think its easier for the committee to justify the team that has a solid schedule but no conference to win.

In future years, that might change.