First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 - ???)

[bamaslammer]

Re: Analysis of First Playoff Poll

I believe the beginning of the committee releases are "play time" for them. They can send a message like "quit ducking good competition" by rewarding an Alabama for facing the best. But once the league championships are won they can use that to justify jumping other teams ahead of us. So Ole Miss losing is very likely a requirement for us to get in. It's possible some of the unbeaten will slip up. We've seen it happen almost inexplicably before because these players aren't used to the pressure that Alabama players live with all year. But if that is not the case we need Ole Miss to lose to open the door to Atlanta.

 

[Tideflyer]

Re: What happens if Ole Miss and us both win out?

We are already voted in. We are #4 in that poll right now and Ole Miss is ranked #18.

So you're saying that if Ole Miss wins out, they'll torpedo the SEC leaving the entire conference out of the final playoff 4? I don't see Ole Miss getting in with two losses.

Yes. OM winning out is the nightmare scenario for the SEC. I just don`t think a two loss OM will make it regardless of what they do. If we don`t play in and win the SECCG, again IMHO, I see us getting jumped in the end as far as the final 4 is concerned. This first ranking really doesn`t mean much at all.

 

[Redwood Forrest]

Re: Tonights the first Playoff Poll release. What's YOUR prediction.

ESPN showed last night that they are jumping on the Memphis bandwagon. And we all know how that works. They are going to hype the crud out of Memphis as long as they keep winning. This is why I think Memphis is a big hurdle for us. If we win out and Memphis wins out, the hype machine is going to push the fact that they beat Ole Miss and we didn't. They will also own wins over currently ranked Houston and Temple. They will have a potential Heisman candidate in Paxton Lynch. There will be a wave of support to put "one of the little guys in." Add in national anti-SEC sentiment and you've got yourself another "1997" (when ESPN effectively hyped Charles Woodson to the Heisman). Now, will the committee tune all of this out? That's the question. For this week, at least, they put Bama where they thought we belong.

This a balancing act for sure. All we can do is win out - convincingly - and let the cards fall where they may.

The BCS buster is now the Playoff buster and the little underdog will never lose its appeal.

Last year it came down to the Conf. Championship games. Ohio State will stomp Iowa. Stanford will win a close one. The ACC should be Clemson, but that is no lock, it is after all the ACC. and Clemson. Memphis or Houston will play at least a 2 loss and unranked team in their CG.

Question: Alabama will have beaten a highly ranked Georgia and LSU. How much will that count if Ole Miss doesn't lose again?

 

[Redwood Forrest]

Re: What happens if Ole Miss and us both win out?

Ole Miss would have to beat LSU and Florida to have a shot at it. I can't see that happening. I Ole Miss does win those two and finish 11-2, then the committee will have a hard time putting 11-1 Bama over them since they beat us and are SEC Champions. Would they dare?

If we win out at 11-1 and Florida beats Ole Miss then we might have a shot if Stanford and TCU falter. Losing late hurts, so we could get in that way.

 

[Redwood Forrest]

Re: What happens if Ole Miss and us both win out?

Ole Miss would have to beat LSU and Florida to have a shot at it. I can't see that happening. I Ole Miss does win those two and finish 11-2, then the committee will have a hard time putting 11-1 Bama over them since they beat us and are SEC Champions. Would they dare?

If we win out at 11-1 and Florida beats Ole Miss then we might have a shot if Stanford and TCU falter. Losing late hurts, so we could get in that way.

 

[tidefanbeezer]

Okay the poll is a bit of a head-scratcher for anyone outside of Birmingham or their fans! Let me begin by saying I'm excited we have two SEC teams in the top 4, that Florida is in the top 10, and that a few teams were not placed higher than they needed to be. I also think Florida is a little low and was hoping for somewhere between 6-8. I will use UF as an example of why it's a bit head scratching. Now, on to a few facts that don't justify UAs 4th best team placement.

1. Florida's best win was over #18, while Alabama lost to #18.
2. Alabama's best win was over #19, while Florida lost to #2.
3. Cumulative record of the teams Alabama has faced is 37-30.
4. Cumulative record of the teams Florida has faced is 36-29.

I'm not advocating Florida to be in the top 4, but how can one be justified and the other not? I've heard that the committee felt that when we played UGA it was without Chubb and their starting QB. Florida can't help that Chubb was injured or that Richt decided to play his 3rd string QB for no justified reason! C'mon man!

Just needing to be Captain Obvious here!

I'm not sure how they look at injuries, but my guess is the schedule. The items you mention above are correct. But Alabama has played its toughest non-conference opponent of the season already (Wisconsin); UF doesn't play theirs until the end of November (FSU). Most SOS sites have Bama and Florida within a few spots of one another and my guess is this is why Bama has the edge now.

But that's just one mans guess; who knows how the committee thinks.

 

[tidefanbeezer]

Re: What happens if Ole Miss and us both win out?

Don`t think so. If OM wins out, they go to the SECCG, we don`t. IMHO, our "winning out" would have to include an SECCG win as well for us to finally make it into the final 4.

I agree with this.

 

[TraskiTideFan]

Re: What happens if Ole Miss and us both win out?

OM doesn't get in even if they win out. There would have to be a whole lot of upsets before the conference championships to even make that a remote possibility. The more interesting thing that was stated last night after the first ranking was by Herbstreit. He said basically that every AD and head coach was just put on notice that YES, strength of schedule does matter. Putting up basketball scores on the football field makes the sports page more interesting, but it doesn't make you the best and most deserving team in the country.

 

[KrAzY3]

Records mean far less than strength of schedule. To give an example, does anyone think that the wins Memphis has means as much as the ones Clemson has?

I'm not sure which idiot at ESPN to go after, but a lot of them keep wanting to pretend Alabama doesn't have a top ten SoS by pretty much any ranking out there, and that Alabama didn't beat two teams ranked in the top 10 and playing great football. Do you want to know why ___ team is ranked lower? It's because they have a lower SoS, that's true for any team in contention.

 

[92tide]

Re: Tonights the first Playoff Poll release. What's YOUR prediction.

ESPN showed last night that they are jumping on the Memphis bandwagon. And we all know how that works. They are going to hype the crud out of Memphis as long as they keep winning. This is why I think Memphis is a big hurdle for us. If we win out and Memphis wins out, the hype machine is going to push the fact that they beat Ole Miss and we didn't. They will also own wins over currently ranked Houston and Temple. They will have a potential Heisman candidate in Paxton Lynch. There will be a wave of support to put "one of the little guys in." Add in national anti-SEC sentiment and you've got yourself another "1997" (when ESPN effectively hyped Charles Woodson to the Heisman). Now, will the committee tune all of this out? That's the question. For this week, at least, they put Bama where they thought we belong.

This a balancing act for sure. All we can do is win out - convincingly - and let the cards fall where they may.

more often than not, teams do not handle the pressure of being in the spotlight.

 

[HSV256]

Re: What happens if Ole Miss and us both win out?

Ole Miss was out the moment they lost to Memphis. That's a bad loss.

 

[dvldog]

Re: Tonights the first Playoff Poll release. What's YOUR prediction.

I thought CDS did a good job with his interview. Thought it was funny when he gave his reason for agreeing to do the interview.

 

[B1GTide]

Okay the poll is a bit of a head-scratcher for anyone outside of Birmingham or their fans! Let me begin by saying I'm excited we have two SEC teams in the top 4, that Florida is in the top 10, and that a few teams were not placed higher than they needed to be. I also think Florida is a little low and was hoping for somewhere between 6-8. I will use UF as an example of why it's a bit head scratching. Now, on to a few facts that don't justify UAs 4th best team placement.

1. Florida's best win was over #18, while Alabama lost to #18.
2. Alabama's best win was over #19, while Florida lost to #2.
3. Cumulative record of the teams Alabama has faced is 37-30.
4. Cumulative record of the teams Florida has faced is 36-29.

I'm not advocating Florida to be in the top 4, but how can one be justified and the other not? I've heard that the committee felt that when we played UGA it was without Chubb and their starting QB. Florida can't help that Chubb was injured or that Richt decided to play his 3rd string QB for no justified reason! C'mon man!

Just needing to be Captain Obvious here!

After Saturday, this won't matter/apply. Alabama will either beat LSU (the team that beat FL) and validate their top 4 ranking or they will lose and be out of it.

 

[B1GTide]

Re: Tonights the first Playoff Poll release. What's YOUR prediction.

more often than not, teams do not handle the pressure of being in the spotlight.

Yep - a lot of teams are going to start losing now that they are close.

 

[Loam]

Re: What happens if Ole Miss and us both win out?

Ole Miss was out the moment they lost to Memphis. That's a bad loss.

Depends how you look at it. But Memphis is undefeated right now and ranked 13th? I believe in the Playoff Poll.

 

[CrankyFranky]

Re: What happens if Ole Miss and us both win out?

Don't worry, the REC has already made contingency plans for this.

 

[derek4tide]

Re: What happens if Ole Miss and us both win out?

We are already voted in. We are #4 in that poll right now and Ole Miss is ranked #18.

So you're saying that if Ole Miss wins out, they'll torpedo the SEC leaving the entire conference out of the final playoff 4? I don't see Ole Miss getting in with two losses.

In a word, yes. If old miss wins out, there would not be a SEC member in the final 4.

 

[CrankyFranky]

Re: Analysis of First Playoff Poll

How can you say "fact" about your assumption?

Their putting Bama so far ahead of undefeated Big 12 teams tells us how they fill about that.

Anything can happen, but nobody can say their opinion is FACT right now...or ever!

I think if Florida wins the SEC at 12-1 with the close game they played LSU after just having their starting QB suspended for the year, I think they are in. Call it the Ohio State effect if you will. However, there are a lot of "ifs" and "buts" to be decided over the next few weeks so lets sit back and enjoy the ride. Right now, all we can do is speculate.

 

[BamaMoon]

Re: Tonights the first Playoff Poll release. What's YOUR prediction.

I think the committe must have taken into account the fact that Bama has basically ruined two pretty good teams seasons: Georgia and TAMU.

While those teams look pedestrian now, they were "all that" when Bama beat them down.

They also gave us passes on the close loss to OM and the close win agaist UT.

And while we might not like it if the shoe were on the other foot, "the eye test" is being employed in their thinking/rankings at this point.

About the only way to explain Bama's #4 initial ranking.

 

[G8RNGA]

Re: What happens if Ole Miss and us both win out?

Ole Miss was out the moment they lost to Memphis. That's a bad loss.

Agree. Even if they win out, I doubt we'll see an SEC champion in the final 4. That would be a nightmare scenario for our conference IMO.