Hurricane Irma......

[Intl.Aperture]

I hope the models that have it circling back out are the ones that are right. Otherwise South FL might be in a mess.

Edit I don't even see those models anymore. Miami looks like it could be in the bullseye.

Screw those models that have it suddenly veering northward and hitting Southern VA. I left the Gulf Coast 9 years ago and thought I was tony keeping a close eye on these storms.

 

[day-day]

When I first saw Irma forming up it reminded me too much of when I first saw Ivan on the National Hurricane site. I had a bad feeling about Ivan tracking to the Pensacola area when it was still way out in the Atlantic. I'm hoping that the only similarity is their names are both four letter words starting with an "I".

 

[TIDE-HSV]

While not uncommon, that's what Andrew was at when it hit south FL 25 years ago. My dad worked with a beverage company at the time and rode down there to deliver bottled water. He took a few pictures (this was before the convenience of digital cameras / phones, so not many pics) but said it looked like pictures of Hiroshima down there...

The other day, my memory was off when I said the instruments blew up at 165 mph. Actually, they blew up at 177. Another factor which has changed is that, although building codes have been stiffened, there are many more high-rises by a exponential factor and wind speeds increase with height off the ground because of friction. So Wilma, although only cat 2, IIRC, caused many buildings to be gutted because the upper windows blew out. Living on a mountaintop, we're treated to that phenomenon on a regular basis...

 

[crimsonaudio]

Yah, I suspect some of the severe storms have made them design things more robustly - growing up in FL (in addition to being a bit of a weather geek) we saw a few high power storms (Andrew and David come to mind) that actually came close to us / hit us as well as many more that we tracked until they passed us.

FYI, Irma has now has measured sustained winds of 180mph - only a handful of Atlantic storms have reached that strength.

 

[2003TIDE]

Looks like we are going to have Hurricane Jose right behind Irma

 

[PitMaster]

Screw those models that have it suddenly veering northward and hitting Southern VA. I left the Gulf Coast 9 years ago and thought I was tony keeping a close eye on these storms.

As hours pass, it seems projected tracks move it ever so slightly more westward to The Gulf. Folks in Alabama, especially near The Coast, should be monitoring closely. I fear this could well be a double landfall - hitting South Fla and then moving into The Gulf and hitting somewhere between Mobile and Tampa for a second blow.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

As hours pass, it seems projected tracks move it ever so slightly more westward to The Gulf. Folks in Alabama, especially near The Coast, should be monitoring closely. I fear this could well be a double landfall - hitting South Fla and then moving into The Gulf and hitting somewhere between Mobile and Tampa for a second blow.

What may save the Gulf is that there is a strong cold front coming through north Alabama right now and it may push the storm east. That was the problem with Harvey - little to no steering currents at all...

 

[tusks_n_raider]

As hours pass, it seems projected tracks move it ever so slightly more westward to The Gulf. Folks in Alabama, especially near The Coast, should be monitoring closely. I fear this could well be a double landfall - hitting South Fla and then moving into The Gulf and hitting somewhere between Mobile and Tampa for a second blow.

Yeah I'm not liking the looks of this.....many times even if Hurricanes hit FLA 1st they go into the Gulf weakened but then build back up in intensity and then smash Ala/MS/ or LA in the Gulf.

I'm 40 mins North of Gulf Shores.....thinking hard about making a supplies run right now just in case.

Hoping this thing will curve NE and avoid everyone. It's definitely not looking good for Fla. Be safe Bazza!!

 

[2003TIDE]

Winds up to 185. Ties it for 2nd strongest max sustained winds recorded in a hurricane

 

[cbi1972]

Winds up to 185. Ties it for 2nd strongest max sustained winds recorded in a hurricane

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_most_intense_tropical_cyclones

Allen 1980 305 km/h (190 mph) 899 hPa (26.55 inHg)
Gilbert 1988 295 km/h (185 mph) 888 hPa (26.22 inHg)
Wilma 2005 295 km/h (185 mph) 882 hPa (26.05 inHg)
Irma 2017 295 km/h (185 mph) 926 hPa (27.34 inHg)

Irma, while having high wind speeds, doesn't seem to have the extremely low pressure that some of the other high wind speed hurricanes did.
Anyone have any idea what the implications of this may be?

 

[MattinBama]

Irma, while having high wind speeds, doesn't seem to have the extremely low pressure that some of the other high wind speed hurricanes did.
Anyone have any idea what the implications of this may be?

Vanilla Ice should be able to help explain the difference with Irma being Under Pressure.

This video brought to you by the Random Sidetrack Thoughts Committee.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_most_intense_tropical_cyclones

Allen 1980 305 km/h (190 mph) 899 hPa (26.55 inHg)
Gilbert 1988 295 km/h (185 mph) 888 hPa (26.22 inHg)
Wilma 2005 295 km/h (185 mph) 882 hPa (26.05 inHg)
Irma 2017 295 km/h (185 mph) 926 hPa (27.34 inHg)

Irma, while having high wind speeds, doesn't seem to have the extremely low pressure that some of the other high wind speed hurricanes did.
Anyone have any idea what the implications of this may be?

Size matters. A lot...

 

[crimsonaudio]

Size matters. A lot...

</michael scott>

 

[jthomas666]

Size matters. A lot...

Some perspective...

 

[TideFaninSoFla]

People are taking this one seriously. The lines at the pumps are already very long. A lot of stations ran out of gas today. No water to be found.

 

[Bamaro]

Looks like those in the Keys have a long journey in front of them to escape Irma.:eek2:

 

[MobtownK]

I hope that thing stays away from Gulf Shores/Orange Beach Alabama.

Sent from my Pixel using Tapatalk

I'm in Mobile. I've got over 20 gallons of water in my freezer and am gathering up supplies just in case :/

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk

 

[CharminTide]

Updated projection from this morning:

 

[crimsonaudio]

That update looks to be good news - if it can keep pushing eastward it will glance up the coast, which is far better than a direct hit on land. The current projection is awful for Miami, though - the east / north side of this storm is going to be brutal.

 

[TideMom2Boys]

I hate it for those islands, we just visited St Kitts, St Maarten (Martin) and Puerto Rico last year. Such nice people and beautiful islands. I can't imagine the damage and I hope they were able to get to a safe place.