Is there a scenario where we still back into the playoffs?

[crimsonaudio]

Unfortunately Greg McElroy was one of them which really surprised me.

This surprises you?

 

[carder24]

Don’t know if this has been posted, but-

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1865070212095349072

Spoken like someone who played only one tough opponent all season, and nearly lost to mw team

I mean, that is stupid to say this year if he ends up facing the hardened 2 or 3 loss team in playoff, or future year if his conference gets deeper quality and deals with better sos with quality wins

 

[bamaltc]

Desmond Howard piled on during CFB Live overwhelingly passionate against Alabama because of laying the egg at Oklahoma, going into Norman and only scoring 3 points. While thats true, it’s funny how people like him can’t even balance it with the top 25 wins comparisons. He was SMU IN playoffs whether they win or loose.

 

[DzynKingRTR]

Desmond Howard piled on during CFB Live overwhelingly passionate against Alabama because of laying the egg at Oklahoma, going into Norman and only scoring 3 points. While thats true, it’s funny how people like him can’t even balance it with the top 25 wins comparisons. He was SMU IN playoffs whether they win or loose.

desmond howard hates Alabama. I guarantee you if his precious meatchicken team were in this exact same scenario he would be whining that meatchicken belongs in and not smu

 

[selmaborntidefan]

2024 Penn State has to be one of the most ignored and dismissed 11-1 No. 3 ranked teams in recent years.

Because they've played 3 teams with a winning record and gone 2-1 (Illinois, Minnesota, Ohio St).

Notre Dame was 12-0 at number 3 in 2018 and dismissed for similar reason, and we saw what happened there.

I do not want Alabama to have to travel there in round 1.

James Franklin has coached Penn State for 11 seasons.

His record against TRASE (Teams Ranked At Season's End)?
10 wins
29 losses

Here are the 10 wins:
2024 Illinois (#21)
2023 Iowa (#24)
2022 Utah (#11)
2019 Memphis (#17)
2019 Michigan (#18)
2018 Iowa (#25)
2017 Northwestern (#17)
2017 Washington (#16)
2016 Ohio State (#3)
2016 Wisconsin (#9)

Note that most of these teams are in the lower regions of the rankings. And really, MEMPHIS?
Penn State has an immense advantage over a school like Memphis or Utah or Iowa, and this is why Franklin can impress early in the schedule when he plays the cupcakes. It doesn't require any particular coaching skills, he just puts better talent out there.

But the moment he's in a game with someone of equal or superior talent, he's doomed. He has TWO wins in his 11 years at Penn State against teams that ended the year in the Top Ten, a fluke win thanks to a blocked FG attempt against Ohio State and five weeks later against Wisconsin - in other words, the same one-year team.

====================================

You never say never. Maybe Franklin can catch lightning in a bottle. Maybe an SEC team will refuse to get off the bus when they see it's snowing in Pedo Valley. Maybe he will have a brain switch with Vince Lombardi before the playoffs.

But until Franklin can put a team on the field that can beat one of the ten best teams in the USA without a fluke, he's basically 80s Tom Osborne in the 2020s.


And who knows? He might do it tomorrow given Oregon is also overrated.

 

[bamaga]

Mark is ready!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1865257502608101406

 

[BamaInBham]

Yep. The BCS was the most objective and fair system.

But it also had a major human (sportswriters and coaches) component in lieu of the CFPC. I think there has been little difference in the outcome. IMO, the primary difference is the mystery surrounding the CFPC’s process.

I have agreed with the outcomes for most part and even if I had a question, IMO, they had a plausible case.

If SMU loses tomorrow, no matter in what manner, they have no business displacing this Alabama team in the playoff nor OM nor USC if they had been the SEC #4.

 

[BamaInBham]

Unfortunately Greg McElroy was one of them which really surprised me.

That is typical “fair and balanced” Greg. He used to be worse. What he said has some truth but it is incomplete because he should also note all of the reasons enumerated on this board that demonstrate it would be preposterous to displace this Alabama team with a 2 loss SMU.

 

[BamaInBham]

That might be subconsciously possible, but I always thought it had more to do with not wanting an immediate Michigan vs Ohio State rematch.

Our only chance at that playoff was if K-State had won a 50-point wipeout.

That is part of it and an often overlooked part that hopefully will come into play this year to diminish the number of potential intra SEC and B10 matchups.

 

[Keldeo]

I'm not convinced that Georgia is safe. If they get stomped by Texas then I don't see a logical reason for them to be ranked higher than Bama because of H2H and having the same # of losses. SMU losing will also complicate things even more.

 

[CajunCrimson]

Desmond Howard piled on during CFB Live overwhelingly passionate against Alabama because of laying the egg at Oklahoma, going into Norman and only scoring 3 points. While thats true, it’s funny how people like him can’t even balance it with the top 25 wins comparisons. He was SMU IN playoffs whether they win or loose.

OU has dudes. People act like we lost to G5 school. It’s Oklahoma. In their house. They had a bad year. But, can people quit acting like it was a scrub team with no talent?

I guarantee you if Indiana or SMU were playing at OU this weekend the line would be under 7

 

[B1GTide]

I'm not convinced that Georgia is safe. If they get stomped by Texas then I don't see a logical reason for them to be ranked higher than Bama because of H2H and having the same # of losses. SMU losing will also complicate things even more.

I could see them dropping Georgia behind Alabama, maybe, but not out. In this scenario Alabama moves up.

 

[CajunCrimson]

Who will make the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff?

Select your favorite contender, make your picks for how its season will play out and see what the Allstate Playoff Predictor foretells.

www.espn.com

Bama up to 86%
Miami 1%
USCe 0%

so Bama is 86%
Clemson and SMU are a combined 114%

So, that makes sense. So what that tells me, is that if SMU loses, Bama has an 86% vs SMUs 14% to make it.

I’m sure a statistics major can correct this based on the ACcCg result, because inside the 86% may be an assumption that SMU is the favorite. Which could result in a more 65% vs 35% outcome. Don’t know.

 

[Keldeo]

I could see them dropping Georgia behind Alabama, maybe, but not out. In this scenario Alabama moves up.

I just noticed this but if you drop Georgia behind Bama then you have to put Ole Miss above them as well also due to H2H.

 

[colbysullivan]

But it also had a major human (sportswriters and coaches) component in lieu of the CFPC. I think there has been little difference in the outcome. IMO, the primary difference is the mystery surrounding the CFPC’s process.

I have agreed with the outcomes for most part and even if I had a question, IMO, they had a plausible case.

If SMU loses tomorrow, no matter in what manner, they have no business displacing this Alabama team in the playoff nor OM nor USC if they had been the SEC #4.

One third of the BCS was the human polls. That’s much better than a committee.

 

[92tide]

I'm not convinced that Georgia is safe. If they get stomped by Texas then I don't see a logical reason for them to be ranked higher than Bama because of H2H and having the same # of losses. SMU losing will also complicate things even more.

i may be wrong, but sexat hasn’t shown the ability to stomp a strong team.

but on the flip side, georgia has shown the ability to get stomped by teams (bama and ole miss)

should be an entertaining game to watch

 

[Bamaro]

Its somewhat obvious that changes will be made in the format. Who gets together to work out these changes?

 

[KrAzY3]

The Boise State result helps a bit. I'd prefer it if Boise State just lost, but by winning over the #20 team by two touchdowns, they are pretty much guaranteed to pass up SMU if they lose. They were ranked over SMU at one point when they both had one loss, so that's a given if SMU has two losses after that result.

Also, based on looking at things last year, there's no way Indiana doesn't pass up SMU if they lose. I can't find an example of a team not moving up that in that type of scenario (less losses, team in front losing conference championship game).

So, it is a given that SMU falls at least to #10 if they lose. There will be no buffer team between Alabama, so the only way SMU stays ahead of Alabama is if the committee compares them head to head and decides they have a better resume.

 

[editder]

How about close wins? or escapes...the U has a couple of very lucky wins on their resume

Plus they have a coach who does some very unusual things. They may get in the championship game, be ahead by 5 with 2 seconds on the clock on the 50 yard line, and try a Hail Mary that’s intercepted and returned for a TD.

 

[bamaga]

OU has dudes. People act like we lost to G5 school. It’s Oklahoma. In their house. They had a bad year. But, can people quit acting like it was a scrub team with no talent?

I guarantee you if Indiana or SMU were playing at OU this weekend the line would be under 7