Not sure what this 'surprise commitment' stuff is, all I saw was on the TideSports chat someone asked him if there COULD be a surprise, and he said 'sure'. Like you said, he never makes solid predictions, mainly because he can't. Anyone can talk about how it looks good for Bama getting Dre/Moore/Tana/Lacey and iffy for Randle/Reid.
And my point in comparing him to DD is that Bone is about as respectable. No one takes DD seriously, and no one I know that's been following recruiting closely for any amount of time takes Bone seriously. When is the last time AB scooped Rodney Orr and Tim Watts on a recruiting story? There's a reason why you can't think of one.
Again, if you like him that's fine, but I've been following his 'analysis' for about 5 years now.
Trust me I don't count on Bone for any behind the scenes info. But even if he does have it, he doesn't give it out. Trust me I am well aware of Rodney's reputation and I respect his information. And Rodney has hinted for a while that their could be a last minute switch in Bama's favor. Believe Bone or not but he was not the first one to report a possible surprise and he is definitely not the only one.