Let the Madness begin - How Bama makes it to the playoffs…..

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Bamaro

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Maybe, depends on who wants to play and who opts out. I'd guess the smart decision would be for Bryce and Will to opt out.....and us get some some playing time for next years QB.
I hope they both play! Thats the way it should be. If they were going to opt out, why not start out with the Iron Bowl?
 

TideEngineer08

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These writers are writing what they want to see happen.
And this is so transparently obvious. I could not live with myself if I had to operate like this in order to be a successful sportswriter. Not that one has to, but it certainly seems the loudest voices always are.

Again, Cecil Hurt is dearly missed.
 

bamapuppy

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I am going to say something that is not so popular, but I believe it 100. Why play conference championships if they do not have ramifications when you loose. I did not feel that Georgia should have been invited to be in the play offs last year when they lost the conference championship. And, if GA, TCU, Michigan, or USC loose this year, they should not be in the playoffs. Loosing the last game should carry that much weight. I also believe that OSU loosing to Michigan that late in the year, by that much a home should just take them out of the conversation. And, yes I do believe that an early loss should hurt less than a late loss.
 

selmaborntidefan

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I know if I was on the committee....any team that lost a game by 3 or more scores is out. I don't care if they lost to say the #2 team at home or an 8-4 team on the road. Blow out losses should exclude you.

Alas, I will never be on the committee.
Here's the problem with your scenario: not all "blowout losses" are created equally.

I've had more than one fan ask me, "How in the world did Penn State win the 1982 national championship when they got blown out by 8-4 Alabama by 21 points?" And for those old enough to remember that game - it's because that was an ARTIFICIALLY HIGH final score.

Alabama was leading, 27-21, with less than 5 minutes left. Penn State decided to punt at midfield and turn the game over to their (damn good) defense. Key point: Penn State's first punt of the game had been blocked at their own 14, and the Tide got their first TD moments later. So as they attempted to punt, the up back got too far back, and the punt went off of his back and flew the other way down the field. Alabama got the ball close and Linnie Patrick scored a TD and we got the two to make it 35-21.

On the very next play from scrimmage, Todd Backledge threw a Pick Six to Eddie Lowe, and the final score was 42-21.

I understand that's not what happened with the Vols - I'm just pointing out scores can be artificially high or low. Penn State themselves got hosed in 1994 when Indiana hit two TDs in the final four minutes against the fourth string and emerged with a six-point loss.

=============================================

However, the Vols fans DO have a point on this one.

Reverse the roles.

You think for one second Alabama fans would not be screaming bloody murder if:
a) we had beaten Tennessee at BDS on a last-play FG
b) we had beaten two top ten teams to their zero

You know the answer to that question.

Besides, Alabama DID lose a head-to-head game to USC in 1978 AT HOME, by double digits and still got voted national champions.
 
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Cruloc

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Here's the problem with your scenario: not all "blowout losses" are created equally.

I've had more than one fan ask me, "How in the world did Penn State win the 1982 national championship when they got blown out by 8-4 Alabama by 21 points?" And for those old enough to remember that game - it's because that was an ARTIFICIALLY HIGH final score.

Alabama was leading, 27-21, with less than 5 minutes left. Penn State decided to punt at midfield and turn the game over to their (damn good) defense. Key point: Penn State's first punt of the game had been blocked at their own 14, and the Tide got their first TD moments later. So as they attempted to punt, the up back got too far back, and the punt went off of his back and flew the other way down the field. Alabama got the ball close and Linnie Patrick scored a TD and we got the two to make it 35-21.

On the very next play from scrimmage, Todd Backledge threw a Pick Six to Eddie Lowe, and the final score was 42-21.

I understand that's not what happened with the Vols - I'm just pointing out scores can be artificially high or low. Penn State themselves got hosed in 1994 when Indiana hit two TDs in the final four minutes against the fourth string and emerged with a six-point loss.

=============================================

However, the Vols fans DO have a point on this one.

Reverse the roles.

You think for one second Alabama fans would not be screaming bloody murder if:
a) we had beaten Tennessee at BDS on a last-play FG
b) we had beaten two top ten teams to their zero

You know the answer to that question.

Besides, Alabama DID lose a head-to-head game to USC in 1978 AT HOME, by double digits and still got voted national champions.
If Bama had been steam rolled by a 6-4 South Carolina, given up 63 points.....arguing over a potential playoff spot would be the last thing we'd be talking about. Pete would have been run out of town after a game like that.
 
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Toddrn

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I am going to say something that is not so popular, but I believe it 100. Why play conference championships if they do not have ramifications when you loose. I did not feel that Georgia should have been invited to be in the play offs last year when they lost the conference championship. And, if GA, TCU, Michigan, or USC loose this year, they should not be in the playoffs. Loosing the last game should carry that much weight. I also believe that OSU loosing to Michigan that late in the year, by that much a home should just take them out of the conversation. And, yes I do believe that an early loss should hurt less than a late loss.
Crimson colored glasses. LOL
 
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selmaborntidefan

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I am going to say something that is not so popular, but I believe it 100. Why play conference championships if they do not have ramifications when you loose.
The SECCG this year is a one team only affair.
LSU gets to raise a banner if they win, whoop-de-do.


I did not feel that Georgia should have been invited to be in the play offs last year when they lost the conference championship.
Then who should have gone in their place?

5) Notre Dame - who lost at home to #4 Cincinnati
6) Ohio St - who lost early to Oregon and LATE in a blowout to Michigan

Every other team had AT LEAST 2 losses.

You can't say to Georgia, "Hey, you have to play this extra game against a playoff team, but if you lose - even though it's your only loss - we're putting in a two-loss team ahead of you."

And, if GA, TCU, Michigan, or USC loose this year, they should not be in the playoffs.
Why not?


Loosing the last game should carry that much weight.
Having that sort of rule would mean 2017 Alabama (who uh lost their last game) is out. And 2020 Notre Dame, with a win over Clemson, would be passed up by Texas A/M, who had a blowout loss to Alabama.


I also believe that OSU loosing to Michigan that late in the year, by that much a home should just take them out of the conversation. And, yes I do believe that an early loss should hurt less than a late loss.
Okay, so you now have eliminated (assuming losses this weekend):

1) Georgia
2) Ohio State
3) Michigan
4) TCU
5) LSU - late season blowout loss
6) USC

7) Alabama
8) Clemson
9) Oregon
10) Tennessee

11) Penn St
12) Kansas St
13) Washington
14) Utah

So using YOUR WAY of doing it, the playoff field would be:
- team who lost to two other teams and beat no top ten teams (Alabama)
- team who lost to one-loss Michigan by 24 points and to 2-loss Ohio St by 13
- team who lost 3 games
- team who lost to 3-9 team but, hey, they did it early so who cares?

Or would Utah move ahead of UW after beating USC for the second time?
And should they?
 

TideEngineer08

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I never like getting bogged down in this argument that every other sport does this or that and college football does not... but for example you have college basketball post season conference championship tournaments. It does not matter who wins those... unless you are out of the ncaa tournament and you get hot and win the conference tourney and thus get the ncaa auto-bid.

It does not really matter who wins divisions in the NFL except for post season seeding.

So yeah, the conference title games have begun to lose their importance now that a playoff has been established. But with the establishment of the conference title game, starting in 1992, did the regular season not lose some of its meaning? Take that very first game for example. You had 11-0 Alabama, clearly the best SEC team of the season, having to play a 9th game against an 8-3 Florida team and dang near lost the game. The 11-0 season would have counted for nothing and you would have had a 3 loss SEC champion.

Think about it. At every step of the way we have devalued the regular season. First it was bowl games and making them mean something in the final NC vote. Then, much later on, it was the conference championship game. Then the BCS. Now the CFP. And so on and so on it goes.
 
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However, the Vols fans DO have a point on this one.

Reverse the roles.

You think for one second Alabama fans would not be screaming bloody murder if:
a) we had beaten Tennessee at BDS on a last-play FG
b) we had beaten two top ten teams to their zero

You know the answer to that question.
No, because if a team that had been a bottom feeder all year had beaten us like a red-headed stepchild, then as far as I'm concerned, we would have no argument.
 
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NoNC4Tubs

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If Bama had been steam rolled by a 6-4 South Carolina, given up 63 points.....arguing over a potential playoff spot would be the last thing we'd be talking about. Pete would have been run out of town after a game like that.
ESPECIALLY if our record-setting QB was out for the year... :rolleyes:
 

BamaMoon

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These writers are writing what they want to see happen.

And in fact it's likely to be what happens.

But if there's any chance the CFP can rationalize getting Bama or OSU in, they will, imo. Those are two HUGE markets.
It's what's wrong with "journalism" today.

Cronkite simply reported the news and didn't tell you how you should feel about it.

Today "journalists" give you sound bites that don't tell half the story and then they tell you how you should react.
 

bamapuppy

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The SECCG this year is a one team only affair.
LSU gets to raise a banner if they win, whoop-de-do.




Then who should have gone in their place?

5) Notre Dame - who lost at home to #4 Cincinnati
6) Ohio St - who lost early to Oregon and LATE in a blowout to Michigan

Every other team had AT LEAST 2 losses.

You can't say to Georgia, "Hey, you have to play this extra game against a playoff team, but if you lose - even though it's your only loss - we're putting in a two-loss team ahead of you."



Why not?




Having that sort of rule would mean 2017 Alabama (who uh lost their last game) is out. And 2020 Notre Dame, with a win over Clemson, would be passed up by Texas A/M, who had a blowout loss to Alabama.




Okay, so you now have eliminated (assuming losses this weekend):

1) Georgia
2) Ohio State
3) Michigan
4) TCU
5) LSU - late season blowout loss
6) USC

7) Alabama
8) Clemson
9) Oregon
10) Tennessee

11) Penn St
12) Kansas St
13) Washington
14) Utah

So using YOUR WAY of doing it, the playoff field would be:
- team who lost to two other teams and beat no top ten teams (Alabama)
- team who lost to one-loss Michigan by 24 points and to 2-loss Ohio St by 13
- team who lost 3 games
- team who lost to 3-9 team but, hey, they did it early so who cares?

Or would Utah move ahead of UW after beating USC for the second time?
And should they?
I still feel that loosing your conference championship game should really matter. It would have if Florida had beat us in the first SEC Championship game. I do believe that we will eventually go to an 8 game playoff. Take the 5 conference champions, and 3 at large. And, yes, this format would have LSU still in the game. And, probably have Georgia still getting one of the 3 at large. As a conrdog hater, I am not a fan of this at all, but if they are the SEC Champions, they should go ahead of Georgia. I know, just my opinion. But, loosing your conference game should matter.
 

selmaborntidefan

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Btw everyone, let's cut through all the bull.

Never forget this when dealing with people: everyone has an agenda (themselves usually) and people are experts at NOT SAYING WHAT THEY REALLY MEAN.

Example:
"What will make the ratings go up is DIFFERENT TEAMS than same ole, same old in the playoffs."

What They Actually Mean:
"I'll tune in to watch if my school ever makes it."

This is not 1966 any longer for anyone who has not accepted that. If you LIKE college football now, great. And if you do not watch it now EXPANDING THE PLAYOFF isn't going to magically turn you into a fan, either. The days of "we can make more fans care about our product" are long gone. (And btw - that role, unlike in 1966, is filled by this little successful enterprise known as the National Football League).

Let's consider this: in 2019, LSU had their best year in damn near a decade, a Heisman winning QB, an SEC unbeaten champion, beat Alabama, made the title game. Their ratings against Clemson? 1% higher than the 2018 Clemson blowout of Alabama. "This new team" added 308,000 viewers - and I'd be willing to bet you all 308K of those viewers were: a) people in the state of LA who didn't watch the previous years games; b) people who were from LA and living somewhere else; c) a few hangers-on who suffer from the dreaded "Bama fatigue" who were just happy it wasn't the fifth installment of Ali vs Frazier.

Here's your viewership numbers

CFP FINAL BY YEAR
2021 - 22.6
2020 - 18.7 (Covid year)
2019 - 25.6
2018 - 25.3
2017 - 28.4
2016 - 25.3
2015 - 26.2
2014 - 34.6

SEMI-FINAL RATINGS (MILLIONS OF VIEWERS - AVG)

2014
Alabama-Ohio State 28.3
FSU-Oregon 28.2

2015
Alabama-Michigan St 18.6
Clemson-Oklahoma 15.7

2016
Alabama-Washington 19.3
Clemson-Ohio St 19.2

2017
Alabama-Clemson 21.5
Georgia-Oklahoma 26.9

2018
Alabama-Oklahoma 19.1
N Dame-Clemson 16.8

2019
LSU-Oklahoma 17.2
Clemson-Ohio State 21.2

2020
Alabama-Notre Dame 18.9
Ohio State-Clemson 19.1

2021
Alabama-Cincinnati 16.7
Georgia-Michigan 17.2 (down 10% from the previous COVID year of Ohio St-Clemson)

Note: 2021 are the lowest ratings EVER for a CFP semifinal. Yes, even lower than the Covid year.

So...

1) Clemson contends for the first time in 30 years - a NEW TEAM, right - and their very first playoff game with OU is STILL the lowest rated semi-final of all-time.

2) Washington contends for the first time and draws a bit better than Sparty did the year before - but note the Sparty game was on Friday night, not Saturday (both games were on 12/31)

3) When Clemson plays Ohio State or Alabama - THEY DRAW!!! And they drew for the title game though I'd argue that's because of LSU. But when Clemson plays anyone else, the ratings are low.

4) Oklahoma clearly doesn't draw very well, either. They have the lowest (on average) ratings here. Yeah, they drew with Georgia ON A NEW YEAR'S DAY ROSE BOWL GAME that went to overtime. And given point 5, how much credit should OU even get?

5) Georgia is CLEARLY a ratings draw, too.

6) If "new teams" are the draw then why did Michigan and Cincinnati draw worse numbers than Washington did or Michigan St did? The ratings went down despite the fact the previous year's ratings were no doubt affected by Covid.

7) Ohio State is clearly a draw, too.

8) Oregon is also - slap me silly - a draw as well.

If NEW TEAMS IN THE PLAYOFFS are the key then why do the new teams - INCLUDING Notre Dame btw - draw so badly?

If people want teams in the playoffs "other than Alabama or Georgia or Clemson or Ohio State," why don't they watch games that don't involve those teams then?????
 

selmaborntidefan

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Any top 5 ranked team that gives up the most points ever in the poll era to an unranked team...has no argument.
THIS is the better argument.

"Hey, look, yes you beat Alabama. You beat Alabama by 3 points on the last play of the game - a game in which our QB was at about 80%, a game in which you blew an 18-point lead AT HOME, a game in which your team repeatedly got away with roughing the QB trying to knock him out of the game and weren't called for it.

So yes - congrats. You won the game. You won the game by the margin of a home-field advantage ON THE LAST PLAY OF THE GAME, which suggests at worst, the two teams are even. It is not unreasonable to think that if the two teams played ten times, Alabama would beat Tennessee 6-7 of those times. At that point, we look at other games - and Alabama doesn't have a 25-point loss to an 8-4 South Carolina team with a few blowouts on their own record."


I know Clay is going on "head to head is always the first tiebreaker."

Yeah - in DIVISIONAL STANDINGS.

Not in poll rankings.
 
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ESPECIALLY if our record-setting QB was out for the year... :rolleyes:
That's another thing most of them are conveniently ignoring. Their star quarterback, the one that carried the team for the most part, won't be playing again this season. Personally, I think if they made it into the playoffs somehow, they'd be sent home embarrassed in the first game.
 
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CoolBreeze

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Cruloc

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This is from an ESPN article. I really hope TCU and USC lose.

"Let's take a moment to envision what each combination of Big 12/Pac-12 results would do for the CFP race.

TCU and USC both win (28% chance): We can fairly assume that both the Horned Frogs and Trojans will get in with this scenario. Even on the off chance that Ohio State ranks fourth this week, a win over Utah would certainly boost USC's résumé.

Only TCU wins (29% chance): USC clearly has to win to get in, so in theory a TCU win and USC loss would result in a clear picture, too -- TCU is in, as is Ohio State, which will almost certainly rank above Alabama on Tuesday night.

Only USC wins (21% chance): Here's where things might start to get blurry. USC would be in with a win, but the committee would have to decide between a 12-1 TCU and 11-1 Ohio State for the final spot. As suggested above, I'm guessing TCU ends up left out, but if the Frogs lose by one point in a thriller, that might not be the case.

TCU and USC both lose (22% chance): If TCU loses by a healthy amount -- if Kansas State pulls a 2003, in other words -- things could get very messy. Obviously, this week's No. 5 team would get in without question, but the committee would be left to choose between a one-loss TCU and whichever team ranks sixth this week. That probably will be Alabama.

That's right, Bama might not be entirely dead just yet. I'll pause for a second while you roll your eyes. Bama, Bama, Bama. It's always Bama."
 
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