Let the Madness begin - How Bama makes it to the playoffs…..

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selmaborntidefan

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This is from an ESPN article. I really hope TCU and USC lose.

"Let's take a moment to envision what each combination of Big 12/Pac-12 results would do for the CFP race.

TCU and USC both win (28% chance): We can fairly assume that both the Horned Frogs and Trojans will get in with this scenario. Even on the off chance that Ohio State ranks fourth this week, a win over Utah would certainly boost USC's résumé.

Only TCU wins (29% chance): USC clearly has to win to get in, so in theory a TCU win and USC loss would result in a clear picture, too -- TCU is in, as is Ohio State, which will almost certainly rank above Alabama on Tuesday night.

Only USC wins (21% chance): Here's where things might start to get blurry. USC would be in with a win, but the committee would have to decide between a 12-1 TCU and 11-1 Ohio State for the final spot. As suggested above, I'm guessing TCU ends up left out, but if the Frogs lose by one point in a thriller, that might not be the case.

TCU and USC both lose (22% chance): If TCU loses by a healthy amount -- if Kansas State pulls a 2003, in other words -- things could get very messy. Obviously, this week's No. 5 team would get in without question, but the committee would be left to choose between a one-loss TCU and whichever team ranks sixth this week. That probably will be Alabama.
Well, there's another wildcard in the deck:

1) LSU BARELY beats UGA
AND
2) Purdue blows Michigan back to the North Pole

The first one wouldn't matter quite as much, although one could then make the argument that "Alabama lost on the last play and is about LSU".

But the SECOND one would have a Black Swan event effect - because it would:
a) put Michigan in a bad situation
b) make the Ohio St loss THAT MUCH WORSE for the Buckeyes
 
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TideEngineer08

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What I find funny at this point.....this Bama team, this team that we have found so much fault with, want the coordinators gone, etc etc......is still in the playoff discussion even with 2 losses.
We have only lost by 4 total points, each game on the last play of the game, both of which were in extremely hostile environments. Bryce has been injured and was probably playing at 70% against UT, maybe lower, and was probably no better than 80% against LSU. I would say he was probably 90% against Auburn.

Anyway... a neutral party will look at that resume and think it very logical to still have us in the running. But you are right it is funny to think all of this in reference to all of our complaints throughout the year.
 

Cruloc

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We have only lost by 4 total points, each game on the last play of the game, both of which were in extremely hostile environments. Bryce has been injured and was probably playing at 70% against UT, maybe lower, and was probably no better than 80% against LSU. I would say he was probably 90% against Auburn.

Anyway... a neutral party will look at that resume and think it very logical to still have us in the running. But you are right it is funny to think all of this in reference to all of our complaints throughout the year.
When it happens tonight, where they put us #5 over OSU....I can hear the committee chair say what you've said, what we're all thinking....

"We put Alabama at #5 because their two losses were on the road on the last plays with a QB that wasn't 100%. Ohio State on the other hand, was handled by 3 touchdowns at home."
 
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B1GTide

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When it happens tomorrow, where they put us #5 over OSU....I can hear the committee chair say what you've said, what we're all thinking....

"We put Alabama at #5 because their two losses were on the road on the last plays with a QB that wasn't 100%. Ohio State on the other hand, was handled by 3 touchdowns at home."
I would put Alabama at 5, but think that the committee will put you at 6. We will know in a few hours.
 
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When it happens tomorrow, where they put us #5 over OSU....I can hear the committee chair say what you've said, what we're all thinking....

"We put Alabama at #5 because their two losses were on the road on the last plays with a QB that wasn't 100%. Ohio State on the other hand, was handled by 3 touchdowns at home."
Isn't that tonight, actually?
 

TideEngineer08

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I would put Alabama at 5, but think that the committee will put you at 6. We will know in a few hours.
I do as well. Nature of the losses aside, it is still 2 losses vs. 1 loss. Ohio State might have wet the bed against Michigan, but they had been the almost unanimous #2 team all year long. It can be written away as a bad day at the office.
 

BamaMoon

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Why do people continually repeat this fallacy? Cronkite almost single-handedly turned the tide of opinion against the war with his Tet Offensive commentary...
Caught me redhanded, I suppose...he's the News Anchor most associated with this idea, or so I've read. But I think it's probably more to do with the quantity of news then compared to now.

I guess my point is the way news is reported with the 24/7 news cycle has changed more to trying to push agendas than simply telling what happened.

If it was just about what happened, all you'd need is 30 minutes each evening...thus the Cronkite quote.

Same really applies to all the sports reporting that's now 24/7. I got 5 minutes of sports from Herb Winches when I was growing up and I managed to survive!
 
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teamplayer

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I do as well. Nature of the losses aside, it is still 2 losses vs. 1 loss. Ohio State might have wet the bed against Michigan, but they had been the almost unanimous #2 team all year long. It can be written away as a bad day at the office.
It can certainly be written off that way, and I often agree with that sentiment. I could even agree if OSU had lost by 10 at home because any team can win on a particular day. In my opinion on this one, though, losing by three TDs at home is at least equivalent to losing by four total points on the road, and it really seems worse. I'm like many others here who don't think we have looked like a championship team this year. However, I usually judge us against our standard of best. We certainly aren't one of the best Bama teams of the last 15 years, but we just might be one of the four best college football teams in 2022 because I haven't seen one team that has looked great each week.
 
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CajunCrimson

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I’m so tired of third grade caliber editing of articles. I truly think I could’ve done a better job at age 9.
 

Cruloc

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I do as well. Nature of the losses aside, it is still 2 losses vs. 1 loss. Ohio State might have wet the bed against Michigan, but they had been the almost unanimous #2 team all year long. It can be written away as a bad day at the office.
Yeah, but their strength of schedule is considerably weaker than ours. They've got Notre Dame at home, we've got Texas on the road.

21-10 # 5 Notre Dame (8-4)
45-12 Arkansas State (3-9)
77-21 Toledo (7-5) (MAC West champs)
52-21 Wisconsin (6-6)
49-10 Rutgers (4-8)
49-20 @ Michigan State (5-7)
54-10 Iowa (7-5)
44-31 @ #13 Penn State (10-2)
21-7 @ Northwestern (1-11)
56-14 Indiana (4-8)
43-30 @ Maryland (7-5)
23-45 #3 Michigan (12-0)

Total opponent record of 74 - 70 (.514)

55-0 Utah State (6-6)
20-19 @ Texas (8-4)
63-7 UL Monroe (4-8)
55-3 Vanderbilt (5-7)
49-26 @ #20 Arkansas (6-6) (mostly without Bryce)
24-20 Texas A&M (5-7) (without Bryce)
49-52 @ #6 Tennessee (10-2)
30-6 Miss. State (8-4)
31-32 @ #10 LSU (9-3)
30-24 @ #11 Ole Miss (8-4)
34-0 Austin Peay (FCS)
49-27 Auburn (5-7)

Total opponent record of 74 - 58 (.561)

Notre Dame vs Texas argument.....we played Texas on the road.

All of our tough games were on the road against ranked teams. Ohio State played one tough game on the road.....we played 4 ranked teams. Granted, Arkansas dropped after.

Bama didn't lose by 3 TD's to anyone.
 

Tide&True

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Just some thoughts to my Bama brethren and friends. Bama was its own worst enemy in the games they lost and the games they barely won. Yet here we are 10-2. The Bama standard makes most of us shy about being playoff caliber but you give Nick Saban a month to prepare for anyone and chances are we’ll win. It’s the final game I’d be more worried about. As B1GTide said we’ll soon know a little better where the committee will put us.
 

Bamaro

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Two things that really come to play in the committee's rankings are great wins and poor losses. We have neither this year so its anybody's guess what happens if there is a loss from a top 4 team on championship weekend. The best we can hope for tonight is #5 but it looks like #6.
 

CoolBreeze

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Just some thoughts to my Bama brethren and friends. Bama was its own worst enemy in the games they lost and the games they barely won. Yet here we are 10-2. The Bama standard makes most of us shy about being playoff caliber but you give Nick Saban a month to prepare for anyone and chances are we’ll win. It’s the final game I’d be more worried about. As B1GTide said we’ll soon know a little better where the committee will put us.
Shy about being playoff caliber? No, no, no my brother. We are all chomping on the bit to win some playoff games.
 
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