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My 2010 SEC predictions

I realize it's the sexy pick to predict Alabama will lose 1 or 2 games this season. I also know that the odds are stacked against us (or any team) to repeat a National Championship. But, I look at the schedule and I have a hard time picking out one definite loss, let alone two. I know Florida will be tough and Arkansas, LSU, and even Auburn could possibly beat us. Anybody on the schedule could beat us but I'm not conceding that anybody will. I've never predicted a Bama loss before the first game was played and I ain't starting now.

14-0 - Two Time BCS National Champion - Roll Tide
 
Assuming that the recent past might be used as a way of predicting the future, , one can note that Tide's record is 26-2 over the past two seasons. This means that they had a 0.923 winning percentage. If one assumes that this winning percentage represents a fairly good predictor of the probability that the Tide will win any given contest (i.e. that when they run out of the tunnel they have a 92.3% chance of winning the game), the probability that they will win 12 in a row (i.e. go 12-0 in the regular season) is 38%. Thus, one can estimate that the chances of the Tide going undefeated in this year's regular season are roughly 2/1 against.
 
I'll give a more in-depth analysis closer to the start of the season, but here's where my predictions stand right now:

Team | Overall Record | Conference Record

East:
Georgia | 11-1 | 7-1
Florida | 10-2 | 6-2
SoCar | 9-3 | 5-3
Tenn | 6-6 | 3-5
Kentucky | 4-8 | 1-7
Vandy | 2-10 | 0-8

West:
Alabama | 12-0 | 8-0
Arkansas | 10-2 | 6-2
LSU | 9-3 | 5-3
Aubarn | 7-5 | 3-5
Ole Miss | 7-5 | 3-5
Miss St. | 4-8 | 1-7

The West shows itself to be stronger than the East, going 11-7 in inter-division play.

Bama beats Georgia in the SEC Championship game for a berth in the BCS National Title Game. Right now I'm leaning toward Ohio State facing us, but I haven't written that one in stone, yet. :)

I'm putting a lot of faith in Georgia's new DC, their schedule, and them staying basically injury free. I think Georgia is the second best team in the East, but their schedule sets up for them to win against everyone but Florida. South Carolina has an up and down year, showing flashes of brilliance by beating Florida and giving Alabama a small scare, but flashes of mediocrity by losing badly in badly played games against Georgia and Arkansas. Tennessee picked a bad year to have a difficult out of conference schedule to go along with the added loss of players for off-the-field issues, and have to make a late season run to end up at .500. LSU and Arkansas are almost mirror images of each other, with Petrino's offense showing that Arky still has Miles' number to close the season, edging LSU out for 2nd place in the West.

The SEC sends 9 teams bowling, thanks to Bama being in the BCS CG and Tennessee beating Kentucky in their final game to become bowl eligible. Here's how the bowl lineup, or at least the pecking order, turns out:

Alabama - BCS CG
Florida - Sugar Bowl
Georgia
Arkansas
LSU
South Carolina
Barn
Ole Miss
Tennessee
 
uafan4life said:
I'll give a more in-depth analysis closer to the start of the season, but here's where my predictions stand right now:

Team | Overall Record | Conference Record

East:
Georgia | 11-1 | 7-1
Florida | 10-2 | 6-2
SoCar | 9-3 | 5-3
Tenn | 6-6 | 3-5
Kentucky | 4-8 | 1-7
Vandy | 2-10 | 0-8

West:
Alabama | 12-0 | 8-0
Arkansas | 10-2 | 6-2
LSU | 9-3 | 5-3
Aubarn | 7-5 | 3-5
Ole Miss | 7-5 | 3-5
Miss St. | 4-8 | 1-7

The West shows itself to be stronger than the East, going 11-7 in inter-division play.

Bama beats Georgia in the SEC Championship game for a berth in the BCS National Title Game. Right now I'm leaning toward Ohio State facing us, but I haven't written that one in stone, yet. :)

I'm putting a lot of faith in Georgia's new DC, their schedule, and them staying basically injury free. I think Georgia is the second best team in the East, but their schedule sets up for them to win against everyone but Florida. South Carolina has an up and down year, showing flashes of brilliance by beating Florida and giving Alabama a small scare, but flashes of mediocrity by losing badly in badly played games against Georgia and Arkansas. Tennessee picked a bad year to have a difficult out of conference schedule to go along with the added loss of players for off-the-field issues, and have to make a late season run to end up at .500. LSU and Arkansas are almost mirror images of each other, with Petrino's offense showing that Arky still has Miles' number to close the season, edging LSU out for 2nd place in the West.

The SEC sends 9 teams bowling, thanks to Bama being in the BCS CG and Tennessee beating Kentucky in their final game to become bowl eligible. Here's how the bowl lineup, or at least the pecking order, turns out:

Alabama - BCS CG
Florida - Sugar Bowl
Georgia
Arkansas
LSU
South Carolina
Barn
Ole Miss
Tennessee
Click to expand...
I don't think I can put that much faith into UGA. Also, if UGA makes it to the SECCG, they will play in the Sugar Bowl, not Florida. An outcry from Dawg fans will be heard throughout the South if Florida goes New Orleans while UGA goes somewhere else. The last two seasons show that the SEC runner up would go, also.
 
uafan4life said:
I'll give a more in-depth analysis closer to the start of the season, but here's where my predictions stand right now:

Team | Overall Record | Conference Record

East:
Georgia | 11-1 | 7-1
Florida | 10-2 | 6-2
SoCar | 9-3 | 5-3
Tenn | 6-6 | 3-5
Kentucky | 4-8 | 1-7
Vandy | 2-10 | 0-8

West:
Alabama | 12-0 | 8-0
Arkansas | 10-2 | 6-2
LSU | 9-3 | 5-3
Aubarn | 7-5 | 3-5
Ole Miss | 7-5 | 3-5
Miss St. | 4-8 | 1-7

The West shows itself to be stronger than the East, going 11-7 in inter-division play.

Bama beats Georgia in the SEC Championship game for a berth in the BCS National Title Game. Right now I'm leaning toward Ohio State facing us, but I haven't written that one in stone, yet. :)

I'm putting a lot of faith in Georgia's new DC, their schedule, and them staying basically injury free. I think Georgia is the second best team in the East, but their schedule sets up for them to win against everyone but Florida. South Carolina has an up and down year, showing flashes of brilliance by beating Florida and giving Alabama a small scare, but flashes of mediocrity by losing badly in badly played games against Georgia and Arkansas. Tennessee picked a bad year to have a difficult out of conference schedule to go along with the added loss of players for off-the-field issues, and have to make a late season run to end up at .500. LSU and Arkansas are almost mirror images of each other, with Petrino's offense showing that Arky still has Miles' number to close the season, edging LSU out for 2nd place in the West.

The SEC sends 9 teams bowling, thanks to Bama being in the BCS CG and Tennessee beating Kentucky in their final game to become bowl eligible. Here's how the bowl lineup, or at least the pecking order, turns out:

Alabama - BCS CG
Florida - Sugar Bowl
Georgia
Arkansas
LSU
South Carolina
Barn
Ole Miss
Tennessee
Click to expand...


I think this is closer to what I'm thinking , but LSU record more like 7-5. I dont have any faith in LSU. The defense will be bad and they have zero qbs. Lots of talent notta coach.
 
Last season I picked Bama to go undefeated and to beat Texas for the National Championship.

So I'm due to have a lousy prognostication.

But I think we'll be stronger than last year. I think we'll be a much better football team. More depth, more quality players, more experience(overall), more everything.

Even with the losses in the secondary I think the athleticism will over come the lack of experience there before we hit the real meat of our schedule.

The one thing that concerns me greatly is our kicking game or lack of one, at least from what I saw in the A-Day game.

Leigh Tiffin set the tone in many big games for the last two seasons by hitting a long field goal when a drive had stalled to start a game. In other words he put points on the board from 48-53 yards away to give us a decent start on a positive note. That's huge. Very huge.

I hope an incoming freshman has at least the capability to hit a few long field goals. Because I didn't see it in the spring game with our rostered kickers.

And our punting??? It was horrific. No, it was worse than that.

It truly does all start with the kicking game and we really need work there before playing at Arkansas.

That's my biggest concern.

Now, with all that said...as I mentioned, I think we'll be a better team, we'll go undefeated, and we'll beat Boise State for the national championship.

I'll say this as well. IF and mean IF we do lose a game this next season....it will be to a team who's not supposed to beat us and who we're not emotionally ready to play. Someone like a South Carolina or a Mississippi State. If we're READY....no one will beat us.

As far as the SEC...I'd pick

West-
Bama
Arkansas
LSU
Auburn
Mississippi State
Ole Miss

East-
Florida
Georgia
South Carolina
Kentucky
Vandy
Tennessee

I reserve the right to make changes before the season begins if roster changes or injuries occur.

But as of right now that's where I stand.

Dang it feels good to be making predictions about the season again!! Getting close!!!! :)

RTR!

sip
 
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uafan4life said:
I'll give a more in-depth analysis closer to the start of the season, but here's where my predictions stand right now:

Team | Overall Record | Conference Record

East:
Georgia | 11-1 | 7-1
Florida | 10-2 | 6-2
SoCar | 9-3 | 5-3
Tenn | 6-6 | 3-5
Kentucky | 4-8 | 1-7
Vandy | 2-10 | 0-8

West:
Alabama | 12-0 | 8-0
Arkansas | 10-2 | 6-2
LSU | 9-3 | 5-3
Aubarn | 7-5 | 3-5
Ole Miss | 7-5 | 3-5
Miss St. | 4-8 | 1-7


Alabama - BCS CG
Florida - Sugar Bowl
Georgia
Arkansas
LSU
South Carolina
Barn
Ole Miss
Tennessee
Click to expand...


I think this is close but LSU's record more like 7-5. No defense, no qb, lots of talent, but they dont have the coaching. Sorry accidently posted twice. I guess you get the message.
 
RTR91 said:
I don't think I can put that much faith into UGA. Also, if UGA makes it to the SECCG, they will play in the Sugar Bowl, not Florida. An outcry from Dawg fans will be heard throughout the South if Florida goes New Orleans while UGA goes somewhere else. The last two seasons show that the SEC runner up would go, also.
Click to expand...

There is no stipulation that the loser of the SEC CG goes to the Sugar Bowl. If the SEC Champion is in the BCS CG, then the Sugar gets to pick who they want from the SEC, just like an at-large bid.

The way I see it, Florida beats Georgia in the regular season. After the SEC CG, they both have two losses. I think a big (two TD+) loss in the SEC CG knocks Georgia's ranking in the polls and the BCS below Florida's, giving the Sugar Bowl all they need to pick Florida.

It really could go either way, though. I just think that Florida will be the better team, and will be perceived nationally as the better team, but that Georgia will back their way into the SEC CG because of the difference in their schedules.
 
ALA2262 said:
SC is one of 3 teams that are required by the SEC to play six consecutive conference games in six consecutive weeks this year. Yes, they will fade again. When they get to Gainesville, they will be so dead azz tired they will have no chance of beating UF. What will be LSU's excuse? They are at the bottom of that spectrum. They play no more than two consecutive conference games in two consecutive weeks this year. LSU will be UF's fourth consecutive conference game in their five consecutive games/weeks stretch. The other "five conference games in five weeks" team at the top of the spectrum is Bama.
Click to expand...
Didn't know LSU needed an excuse based off what I posted. I didn't pick LSU to win anything. I just stated that, as always, USCe will fall below the expectations people have for them preseason. You agreed, yet still feel the need to take a stab? Not getting it. I wasn't downing your team, and wasn't even praising my own.

More proof us LSU fans can't even come here and talk football. I was actually looking forward to this kind of thread.
 
RTR91 said:
I don't think I can put that much faith into UGA. Also, if UGA makes it to the SECCG, they will play in the Sugar Bowl, not Florida. An outcry from Dawg fans will be heard throughout the South if Florida goes New Orleans while UGA goes somewhere else. The last two seasons show that the SEC runner up would go, also.
Click to expand...

UGA would have nothing to cry about. Their 2007 team played in the Sugar Bowl without being in the SECCG.
 
tidefan89 said:
What about OOC games?
Click to expand...

No way to determine that because you do not have the coresponding loss to double check. However, he has a total of 94 wins so that means he is saying the SEC will go 46-2 in the 48 OOC games unless he is counting the impossible 52 SEC wins in the 94 total. In that case he is saying the SEC will go 42-6 in the OOC games. The teams play 96 games so the maximum W-L difference would be 96-48. That would be 48-0 OOC and 48-48 SEC.

And I would venture to say everyone thought they played 144 games(12x12). Nope! 144 W's and L's, 96 games.
 
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CrimsonProf said:
Interesting - I'll say this about Nebraska...if Pellini can recruit well enough in the Big 10, they'll win some hardware.
Click to expand...

They get Texas at home which gets them to #2. They don't play Oklahoma which is unbelievable. Is like Bama and ut not playing. Oklahoma loses only to Texas.

tOSU loses at Wisconsin and at Iowa. Wisconsin loses only at Iowa. Iowa is #3.

Virginia Tech beats Boise State like a red headed step child for #4.

Oregon loses only at Oregon State. Oregon State loses only at Boise State, wins Pac-10 and goes to the Rose Bowl.

Final 4 are all undefeated. Would be a great year for the Plus One. You would have Bama playing Virginia Tech and Iowa playing Nebraska with the winners in the BCSNCG.
 
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CrimsonBeachBum said:
I'd love to see this happen. Bama V Nebraska for the national title. I think Nebraska has quite a bit of rebuilding to do on the defense after the departure of Suh and co.
Click to expand...

I would love to play Nebraska for the BCSNCG. God our defense would just smother their offense.

I'd also love to play OSU. I want to expose Terrell Pryor so badly. I can't understand why so many people have him on their Heisman watchlist. Last year he had less total yards, less touchdowns, way more interceptions and less accuracy than McElroy. What is the deal.

I just hope we make it to the national championship so we can embarrass whoever we play. That's just something I want for our boys.
 
uafan4life said:
I'll give a more in-depth analysis closer to the start of the season, but here's where my predictions stand right now:

Team | Overall Record | Conference Record

East:
Georgia | 11-1 | 7-1
Florida | 10-2 | 6-2
SoCar | 9-3 | 5-3
Tenn | 6-6 | 3-5
Kentucky | 4-8 | 1-7
Vandy | 2-10 | 0-8

West:
Alabama | 12-0 | 8-0
Arkansas | 10-2 | 6-2
LSU | 9-3 | 5-3
Aubarn | 7-5 | 3-5
Ole Miss | 7-5 | 3-5
Miss St. | 4-8 | 1-7

The West shows itself to be stronger than the East, going 11-7 in inter-division play.

Bama beats Georgia in the SEC Championship game for a berth in the BCS National Title Game. Right now I'm leaning toward Ohio State facing us, but I haven't written that one in stone, yet. :)

I'm putting a lot of faith in Georgia's new DC, their schedule, and them staying basically injury free. I think Georgia is the second best team in the East, but their schedule sets up for them to win against everyone but Florida. South Carolina has an up and down year, showing flashes of brilliance by beating Florida and giving Alabama a small scare, but flashes of mediocrity by losing badly in badly played games against Georgia and Arkansas. Tennessee picked a bad year to have a difficult out of conference schedule to go along with the added loss of players for off-the-field issues, and have to make a late season run to end up at .500. LSU and Arkansas are almost mirror images of each other, with Petrino's offense showing that Arky still has Miles' number to close the season, edging LSU out for 2nd place in the West.

The SEC sends 9 teams bowling, thanks to Bama being in the BCS CG and Tennessee beating Kentucky in their final game to become bowl eligible. Here's how the bowl lineup, or at least the pecking order, turns out:

Alabama - BCS CG
Florida - Sugar Bowl
Georgia
Arkansas
LSU
South Carolina
Barn
Ole Miss
Tennessee
Click to expand...

Forget tOSU. they lose at Wisconsin and at Iowa. Iowa plays all 3(tOSu, PSU, and Wisconsin) of their little eleven top competition at home and wins all 3.
 
GMacFan said:
I would love to play Nebraska for the BCSNCG. God our defense would just smother their offense.

I'd also love to play OSU. I want to expose Terrell Pryor so badly. I can't understand why so many people have him on their Heisman watchlist. Last year he had less total yards, less touchdowns, way more interceptions and less accuracy than McElroy. What is the deal.

I just hope we make it to the national championship so we can embarrass whoever we play. That's just something I want for our boys.
Click to expand...

Trouncing Boise State would be fun also. Would be like the 1953 Orange Bowl. Syracuse just thought they had a good football team. And if you ever wondered where all the loud mouths in Miami came from, they moved down from Syracuse.
 
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