Not Too Early "Pivot Game" (part 2) Thread: Bama @ TAMU:

[tusks_n_raider]

Q: What do the following QBs have in common?

• Bo Nix
• Caleb Williams
• Dillon Gabriel
• Michael Penix Jr
• Quinn Ewers
• Shedeur Sanders
• Sam Hartman
• Jaxson Dart

A: All had lower QBRs than Jalen Milroe Saturday.

Well that’s cool on an extremely small sample size with zero context.

Every player you have listed is as vastly better college QB.

I’m sure their QBR takes some hits because they know discretion is the better part of valor and they have many incompletions weekly because they THROW THE BALL AWAY instead of eating sacks and TFL’s (except Sanders who also eats sacks)

If Jalen hadn’t busted on a few of the LONG runs he’s had he would have Negative rushing yards just like Sanders.

I’d rather Jalen have a lower QBR by getting rid of the ball myself and not taking like -50 yards per game in sacks and killing drives and negatively affecting field position and putting the Defense under more stress than it’s already under.

 

[OakMtn4Bama]

Milroe is playing slightly better each week. Need to clean up the frivolous penalties although the cursed cowbells might have had something to do with it.

We have been taking baby steps forward each week. Probably need a Big Boy step this week.

 

[FF4bama]

Little too early to worry about TAMU. I don't understand why everyone thinks we can't beat them because of their record? If you look into the team a little like I have and Ive been watching them the last two weeks and I don't see what people are saying about them.


The schedule they played compared to the one Alabama played so far. Significant gap.
They played the following: New Mexico, Miami, UL Monroe, Auburn and Arkansas.

They lost to Miami 48-33. Play calling wasn't good in that game.

They played Auburn. 27-10. What's missing the context of the game is that TAMU struggled to score in first half. In 2nd half, they scored 14 points in 3rd and 7 points in 4th. If Auburn had a decent QB, I think Auburn wins this game.

They just played Arkansas yesterday 34-22. TAMU did not play well yesterday. They had interception returned for a TD, had 2 fumble, missed FG kick. (3 turnovers)
The reason the Tamu won was because of Punt Touchdown, and Interception Touchdown for TAMU. Offense struggled . It was a close game than the score indicated.

So anyone who says Alabama doesn't match up with TAMU on the field, isn't accurate. I'm looking at their performances in the last few weeks... and They are not impressive team.

I still expect Texas AM to generate some issues for Bama, but I believe Bama has enough weapons/ better playcalling to hold them off. Also, We have to remember Saban isn't over the loss TAMU gave them so there will be some intense coaching this weekend I really think this is the week that Bama grows up on the field.

BTW, If Bama beat TAMU this saturday, they would be stretching their lead on SEC WEST, and owe tiebreaker over Ole Miss and Texas A and M. It will come down to LSU game to clinch the title unless LSU lose another game.

Bobby Petrino's record against Coach Saban is 0-4, and that was against some really good Arkansas teams. I understand some of the pessimism but other than a fluke here and there A&M hasn't been a consistent threat. As another poster here has said, all we can do at this point is watch hope and cheer 'em on.

 

[Cruloc]

Q: What do the following QBs have in common?

• Bo Nix
• Caleb Williams
• Dillon Gabriel
• Michael Penix Jr
• Quinn Ewers
• Shedeur Sanders
• Sam Hartman
• Jaxson Dart

A: All had lower QBRs than Jalen Milroe Saturday.

QBR's are calculated using passing attempts, completions, yards, TD's and INT's.

I'd take any QB you listed over Milroe....all of those guys are QB's. Milroe is not.

No where in a QBR does it include holding onto the ball too long and taking a sack....where throwing the ball away was the best outcome (and the incompletion would hurt the QBR)

No where in a QBR does it include not reading a defense, not picking up what coverage they are in, where the blitz is coming from, where the hot route is.

You want to know QBR ranks from the NFL....
Bryce is dead last, #33
Burrow is #29
Trevor Lawrence is #22

If we're going with just the SEC QB's and college ranks, then Milroe is the #3 QB in the SEC based on rating. Behind Jayden Daniels and Brady Cook. Flaws with that comparison abound...

Milroe is behind Payton Thorne in completions.
Milroe is tied with Milton and Rattler with 3 interceptions. Rattler has had 163 attempts, Milton 160, Milroe has only attempted 78 passes.

 

[spidermayin]

We're going to have to develop a more consistent intermediate passing game to win these tougher games. Offensively, I don't think A&M is nearly as good as Ole Miss. Defensively though, they're probably just below Texas level, which is pretty stout compared to what we've faced so far. So, running the ball may not be as effective against A&M. We absolutely have to be able to pass the ball better and pass protect better. I foresee plenty of all out blitzes called against us. I remember that giving us a lot of trouble in the past.

 

[BamaMoon]

Well that’s cool on an extremely small sample size with zero context.

Every player you have listed is as vastly better college QB.

I’m sure their QBR takes some hits because they know discretion is the better part of valor and they have many incompletions weekly because they THROW THE BALL AWAY instead of eating sacks and TFL’s (except Sanders who also eats sacks)

If Jalen hadn’t busted on a few of the LONG runs he’s had he would have Negative rushing yards just like Sanders.

I’d rather Jalen have a lower QBR by getting rid of the ball myself and not taking like -50 yards per game in sacks and killing drives and negatively affecting field position and putting the Defense under more stress than it’s already under.

Thanks. The constant "Look at Jalen's stats" line is the perfect illustration to the old adage "you can prove anything with stats."

 

[Coach D]

I am looking forward to see how far the oline has come going against probably the best Dline in the SEC this week Hopefully see a more diverse run game plan if we are relying on the run. Will say I do not know how to feel about the dline as we have been much better against the run this year excluding a few big ones last week and the 4th qtr of Texas. The deep throws still a little concern but overall excited to watch the defense again finally. The aggies arguably have the best oline and dline we will play so we will know what we have after this. Hoping the defense continues getting NOTs. Downs has gotten better and better each week and is the leading tackler which is a good sign for the D.

 

[VirginiaTide57]

I think playing the Cowbells on the road was beneficial for the team leading up to the Aggies. There was obvious nerves in the first quarter but they kept playing. I don't believe this is a static team, i.e. they are getting better each week instead of not progressing. Can they execute on the road? I think they will. Roll Tide. 37-24

 

[CoolBreeze]

This is a big game. It is a coin flip whether we can win it but Fisher was the first assistant to beat Saban a couple of years ago with a team we should have destroyed. This is the game I circled at the beginning of the season fully expecting us to take out the froghorns at home in game 2. So, we will need to play our best game of the season to come out with a victory. I know, I have seen 8&4 play and they do not look overly impressive but I think they match up well against us plus...they are playing Alabama at home. You could say this is a pivotal game but most likely it sets the tone for the rest of the season. We can contend for championships if we can play championship football right now against these guys.

 

[Isaiah 63:1]

...I’m sure their QBR takes some hits because they know discretion is the better part of valor and they have many incompletions weekly because they THROW THE BALL AWAY instead of eating sacks and TFL’s (except Sanders who also eats sacks)...

...I’d rather Jalen have a lower QBR by getting rid of the ball myself and not taking like -50 yards per game in sacks and killing drives and negatively affecting field position and putting the Defense under more stress than it’s already under.

QBR's are calculated using passing attempts, completions, yards, TD's and INT's...

... No where in a QBR does it include holding onto the ball too long and taking a sack....where throwing the ball away was the best outcome (and the incompletion would hurt the QBR)...

You both appear to be confusing QBR (a complex formula that evaluates the how likely it is that a QB, in those situations, against that competition, would have led his team to victory - for instance, it factors in sack yardage) with Passer Rating (a simpler, unadjusted algorithm that @Cruloc seems to have reproduced).

 

[JohnD]

I only watched part of the game while I was doing some other work, but he seemed to hit quite a few of his passes pretty effectively. I did see an earlier Arkansas game from a couple of weeks ago, and it looked then as if their receivers were one of their strengths, but they definitely did not look good in the part of the game I saw yesterday against TAM. Perhaps Max Johnson didn't do as well later in the game, I don't know. If this is the case, I hope that *he* will be the guy that shows up against us Saturday.

Arkansas lost their TE Luke Hasz for the season on the first series against A&M. He had over 100 yds against LSU and was a huge part of their offense in more ways than just receiving. So much so it explains their inability to sustain drives against A&M (5 of 15 on 3rd downs). And Arkansas' defense is not all that good either.

 

[Windsortide]

I just wish someone would convince Milroe to throw the ball away if he needs to.

Great point preparation reflects on the QB coach/OC. If the kid looks confused it directly reflections on preparations.

 

[deltatider]

This game is the scariest game left on our schedule in my opinion. A&M has the most talented/well balanced roster of any team that we will play from here on out. In my opinion we are seeing a Bama team that has and will continue to get better as the year goes on...I say that because I expect the O-line to continue to get better, while I cross my fingers that the same happens at the QB position. That said we don't have the luxury of losing another game if we want to make the playoffs, so we will need to see the boys step up their game on Saturday to come out of this one with a W or we could be looking at a too little too late scenario by the end of the season.

I do think there are a few things that do work in our favor though going into this particular game. I'm sure some of you are going to flame the hell out of me on this one, but I could argue that every unit on Bama's offense (and yes that includes the QB position) and defense this year is a better version of the units from last year's team that beat A&M; with the exception of the O-line. And I'm not real sure there is actually a whole lot of drop off with that unit when compared to last year.

Even though last year's game came down to the final play, we still put up over 30 points against that A&M defense with Milroe at QB, and we did so while committing 3 turnovers. So at least we're going into this year's game with a more experienced version of Milroe. Also, while the A&M offense was a dumpster fire last year, their defense was not...

I've only watched a little bit of A&M this year, but just from looking at who they have played so far this year; they got smoked by Miami and they have beaten Auburn and Arkansas teams that are not very good. So the narrative on the sports talk is how much A&M has improved, but I don't know if they have improved or just beaten up on some teams that probably won't make it to bowl eligibility this year.

I think this game comes down to a few things: 1) Using Milroe's legs to loosen up the D, 2) the O-line holding up in pass pro/establishing the run, 3) getting pressure on Johnson/shutting down their run game, 4) hitting some long balls to take advantage of the A&M secondary, and 5) limiting turnovers.

I heard a stat on the radio today that said A&M is the only offense in the country to score points on either their first or second drive this year. Essentially they make their scripted plays count. We really need a quick start on both sides of the ball to keep the crowd out of the game and to put pressure on their defense.

 

[AgSwag]

Little too early to worry about TAMU. I don't understand why everyone thinks we can't beat them because of their record? If you look into the team a little like I have and Ive been watching them the last two weeks and I don't see what people are saying about them.


The schedule they played compared to the one Alabama played so far. Significant gap.
They played the following: New Mexico, Miami, UL Monroe, Auburn and Arkansas.

They lost to Miami 48-33. Play calling wasn't good in that game.

They played Auburn. 27-10. What's missing the context of the game is that TAMU struggled to score in first half. In 2nd half, they scored 14 points in 3rd and 7 points in 4th. If Auburn had a decent QB, I think Auburn wins this game.

They just played Arkansas yesterday 34-22. TAMU did not play well yesterday. They had interception returned for a TD, had 2 fumble, missed FG kick. (3 turnovers)
The reason the Tamu won was because of Punt Touchdown, and Interception Touchdown for TAMU. Offense struggled . It was a close game than the score indicated.

So anyone who says Alabama doesn't match up with TAMU on the field, isn't accurate. I'm looking at their performances in the last few weeks... and They are not impressive team.

I still expect Texas AM to generate some issues for Bama, but I believe Bama has enough weapons/ better playcalling to hold them off. Also, We have to remember Saban isn't over the loss TAMU gave them so there will be some intense coaching this weekend I really think this is the week that Bama grows up on the field.

BTW, If Bama beat TAMU this saturday, they would be stretching their lead on SEC WEST, and owe tiebreaker over Ole Miss and Texas A and M. It will come down to LSU game to clinch the title unless LSU lose another game.

As an Aggie fan I come just to discuss, but I'm not sure about this. Auburn just gave Georgia all they could handle and moved the ball well. Auburn got a fumble return for a TD and we should have had a fumble for a TD...crap call. We missed 2 field goals. That game should have been around 40-3. It was not as close as the score. We had 7 sacks and shut them down defensively as they had 200 yards of offense.
Arkansas was for sure not as close as the score. Again we had 7 sacks and held them to 174 yards of offense which 50 of those came on a late bomb for garbage TD after we had our back ups in with the secondary. We gifted them a pick 6. They had 39 carries for 42 yards and Jefferson and Rocket Sanders are good athletes.
A&M was a yard 2 years ago for shooting for 3 straight against Bama.

Now in saying that I will say Bama is king until proven otherwise. A&M like Bama as gotten better as the season has gone on. A&M has the athletes like Texas did on defense and probably better than Texas athletes. The offensive line has gotten much better and Durkin seems to be dialing up much better schemes. Bama has also starting playing better and seems to have fixed some of their issues, but they have more issues than they have in the past. They are not dominant as they have been in any aspect of their game. They usually have no holes, but the have several. I don't think we will be real successful running it, but effective enough. I'm not confident in a win, because Bama is Bama but I do feel as good as I ever have against Bama. Here's to a good game.

 

[AgSwag]

This game is the scariest game left on our schedule in my opinion. A&M has the most talented/well balanced roster of any team that we will play from here on out. In my opinion we are seeing a Bama team that has and will continue to get better as the year goes on...I say that because I expect the O-line to continue to get better, while I cross my fingers that the same happens at the QB position. That said we don't have the luxury of losing another game if we want to make the playoffs, so we will need to see the boys step up their game on Saturday to come out of this one with a W or we could be looking at a too little too late scenario by the end of the season.

I do think there are a few things that do work in our favor though going into this particular game. I'm sure some of you are going to flame the hell out of me on this one, but I could argue that every unit on Bama's offense (and yes that includes the QB position) and defense this year is a better version of the units from last year's team that beat A&M; with the exception of the O-line. And I'm not real sure there is actually a whole lot of drop off with that unit when compared to last year.

Even though last year's game came down to the final play, we still put up over 30 points against that A&M defense with Milroe at QB, and we did so while committing 3 turnovers. So at least we're going into this year's game with a more experienced version of Milroe. Also, while the A&M offense was a dumpster fire last year, their defense was not...

I've only watched a little bit of A&M this year, but just from looking at who they have played so far this year; they got smoked by Miami and they have beaten Auburn and Arkansas teams that are not very good. So the narrative on the sports talk is how much A&M has improved, but I don't know if they have improved or just beaten up on some teams that probably won't make it to bowl eligibility this year.

I think this game comes down to a few things: 1) Using Milroe's legs to loosen up the D, 2) the O-line holding up in pass pro/establishing the run, 3) getting pressure on Johnson/shutting down their run game, 4) hitting some long balls to take advantage of the A&M secondary, and 5) limiting turnovers.

I heard a stat on the radio today that said A&M is the only offense in the country to score points on either their first or second drive this year. Essentially they make their scripted plays count. We really need a quick start on both sides of the ball to keep the crowd out of the game and to put pressure on their defense.

That defense of A&M you speak of gave up an average of 208 yards a game rushing...which was Bama's strength with Milroe. A&M has been much better against the run this year only giving up 80 yards a game.

 

[deltatider]

That defense of A&M you speak of gave up an average of 208 yards a game rushing...which was Bama's strength with Milroe. A&M has been much better against the run this year only giving up 80 yards a game.

Well unfortunately for you guys last year that defense was still the strength of the team.....What do you think has changed between last year and this year to account for the improvement against the run?

 

[Tidewater]

As another poster here has said, all we can do at this point is watch hope and cheer 'em on.

And go for a long bike ride...

 

[CajunCrimson]

If our coaches put Milroe is good situations, and not force him to make split second decisions, our offense will be fine.

On defense, shut down their speed guys.

Max Johnson is what he is. A good QB that struggles as the pressure builds.

 

[Tenntiderman]

People are worried because the last time we played there we lost with Bryce Young at QB. They weren't even a good team that year. I believe they had already lost 2 games. We should have lost last year at home with the current QB we have. It is going to be really loud and we have a lot of problems going in so people are concerned. If you think this will be a cakewalk then you are just crazy. I think my reputation on here is enough to show I am not an eeyore at all, and I got a few worries about this game. I do not feel confident at all. I will do my part and bike that morning, but it is all I can do.

If I thought it would help..I would come over and ride a tricycle behind you. That Sir..would indicate dedication.

 

[BamaInCummingGA]

Q: What do the following QBs have in common?

• Bo Nix
• Caleb Williams
• Dillon Gabriel
• Michael Penix Jr
• Quinn Ewers
• Shedeur Sanders
• Sam Hartman
• Jaxson Dart

A: All had lower QBRs than Jalen Milroe Saturday.

Maybe, but could that be because they know when to throw the ball away instead of losing 5-10 yards so you can have a higher QBR?