Bama Game Thread: OFFICIAL POSTGAME THREAD - Bama @ LSU...

[PA Tide Fan]

Here's the chart on 2 point conversions that Saban was referring to in his post-game presser. I still didn't like the decision.

How to decide when to go for 2
�

MARGIN AFTER TD	+1	+2 (VS. +1)	BETTER OPTION	MARGIN AFTER TD	+1	+2 (VS. +1)	BETTER OPTION
	EST. CHANGE IN WIN PROB. IF YOU GET …		EST. CHANGE IN WIN PROB. IF YOU GET …
-15	0.5	1.0	Two	0	8.4	1.8	One
-14	1.0	0.4	One	1	1.8	6.5	Two
-13	0.4	1.1	Two	2	6.5	5.0	One
-12	1.1	1.3	Same	3	5.0	2.9	One
-11	1.3	2.2	Two	4	2.9	3.1	Same
-10	2.2	2.9	Two	5	3.1	5.2	Two
-9	2.9	3.3	Same	6	5.2	3.3	One
-8	3.3	5.2	Two	7	3.3	2.9	Same
-7	5.2	3.1	One	8	2.9	2.2	One
-6	3.1	2.9	Same	9	2.2	1.3	One
-5	2.9	5.0	Two	10	1.3	1.1	Same
-4	5.0	6.5	Two	11	1.1	0.4	One
-3	6.5	1.8	One	12	0.4	1.0	Two
-2	1.8	8.4	Two	13	1.0	0.5	One
-1	8.4	8.4	Same	14	0.5	0.7	Same

Win probability changes apply to the listed situations when there are 10 minutes remaining in the game.

 

[CrimsonRuss]

That seems dramatic

Just being honest. I’ve been a Bama fan all my life. The last time I decided not to watch Bama football was during Shula’s last year. This year, to me, is eerily similar.

 

[Bamafan23]

Yeah...unsure...but not confident and a little defensive (although I couldn't hear the questions).

I know there's the part about saying "I can't blame the players...it's on me" but earlier he sounded like other PCs when he talked about having to execute better (like it was the players).

I was actually listening to hear if he was angry, and I didn't hear anything to indicate that. That's bothersome IMO.

I was a little surprised about his tone too. He talked about players playing for pride in the program and standard going forward, almost like he was recognizing most of the large goals we had going into the season are not really there anymore.
I also would be interested in seeing one of those go/no-go for 2 sheets.

 

[CB4]

He didn't sound angry at all...

Which probably is even more concerning.

 

[bamaga]

Here's the chart on 2 point conversions that Saban was referring to in his post-game presser. I still didn't like the decision.

How to decide when to go for 2
�

MARGIN AFTER TD	+1	+2 (VS. +1)	BETTER OPTION	MARGIN AFTER TD	+1	+2 (VS. +1)	BETTER OPTION
	EST. CHANGE IN WIN PROB. IF YOU GET …		EST. CHANGE IN WIN PROB. IF YOU GET …
-15	0.5	1.0	Two	0	8.4	1.8	One
-14	1.0	0.4	One	1	1.8	6.5	Two
-13	0.4	1.1	Two	2	6.5	5.0	One
-12	1.1	1.3	Same	3	5.0	2.9	One
-11	1.3	2.2	Two	4	2.9	3.1	Same
-10	2.2	2.9	Two	5	3.1	5.2	Two
-9	2.9	3.3	Same	6	5.2	3.3	One
-8	3.3	5.2	Two	7	3.3	2.9	Same
-7	5.2	3.1	One	8	2.9	2.2	One
-6	3.1	2.9	Same	9	2.2	1.3	One
-5	2.9	5.0	Two	10	1.3	1.1	Same
-4	5.0	6.5	Two	11	1.1	0.4	One
-3	6.5	1.8	One	12	0.4	1.0	Two
-2	1.8	8.4	Two	13	1.0	0.5	One
-1	8.4	8.4	Same	14	0.5	0.7	Same

Win probability changes apply to the listed situations when there are 10 minutes remaining in the game.

Doesn’t plus four say same win probability? Or am I mis reading the chart? So one would have the same win probability as going for 2.

 

[Bamabuzzard]

Which probably is even more concerning.

Yeah, I thought the same thing. We'll see what happens after the season, but if I was basing next season off this interview (which I'm not), I wouldn't be a bit surprised if he decided to retire. He just looked tired.

 

[Cruloc]

The officials should be professional. This is big time football and teams, fans and the college football ecosystem deserves professionals.

this was on their OT touchdown.

I pointed that block in the back out to my son when I saw the replay.....just started laughing, I had no doubt they'd go for 2. Had hope they wouldn't make it, but shoot, 2022 Bama had no business going to Atlanta.

 

[SkinnyFats]

That chart makes no sense to me. It says ‘same” for 4, 7, 10, and 14 point leads after the TD.

So this chart says if the Td puts us up by 7, we should flip a coin to see if we kick the extra point to go up 8, because the win probability is the same either way? And same if we go up 10, or 14?

There’s no coach in the world who would go for 2 after going up 7, 10, or 14 points. They’d all kick the ball.

 

[CrimsonRuss]

I do wonder if we lost whoever our best WR scout was. We seemed to always hit on WRs and now it's come to s screeching halt?

I agree. I also think we’ve missed a lot on OL recruits. I like Coach Wolf an I can see progress. What I’m hoping is that the OL he’s recruiting will fix the problems we’re all seeing.

 

[Jay Hughes]

I am in my 50s now. I have many other options to fill my Saturdays with than watching this pathetic team. Slam me if you want. But this team is supposed to be the deepest team with 4 and 5 star talent three deep at every position. IT is supposed to have the best coaches and teams of behind the scenes coaches. yet what i witness in the last two years is on par with Mississippi ST ans Ole MIss.

I wouldn’t mind if you retired to the lake. Enjoy your other hobbies!
Roll Tide!
PS You won’t be missed!

 

[PA Tide Fan]

Doesn’t plus four say same win probability? Or am I mis reading the chart? So one would have the same one probability as going for 2.

IMO charts like this are theory, not the final word. I'm sure Lane Kiffin has some chart that tells him to go on 4th down as often as he does yet other coaches don't try it like he does. I had a bad feeling when we tried it the last time. If there's little difference I'd take the 1.

 

[Cruloc]

Well, after seeing the post game...

Saban either retires after the season or he cleans house with staff and finds good replacements.

I have this feeling it may be the former.

 

[CrimsonRuss]

I honestly think the talent is there, I just don't think it's being utilized properly. That's one reason I harp on Golding so much. This defense returned a lot of key guys. They have depth, they have first round NFL talent, they have arguably the best defensive player Saban has ever had. The individual parts are there. You'd think they could have improved over last season because there's no reason to believe the same guys would get worse from one year to the next.

They're just not being used properly. It's like someone building something out of Legos and they're just not making it structurally sound. They have all the parts they need, they're just not using them correctly.

Now just imagine what Pruitt could’ve done with all that talent. Don’t know about you, but it gives me the warm an fuzzies…

 

[jdua]

I think Saban is too much of a competitor to let this stand.

He sees what Kirby just did running a defense based off of his. He sees what's becoming of the dynasty he built. I think Saban is really at this most dangerous when he's kind of backed into a corner.

Look at the worst years he's had then look at what happened after. 2010's 3 loss team lead to two consecutive championships.

In fact, of the six previous times Saban has lost multiple times (since 2008) at Alabama, 4 have lead to championships. It's actually the best indicator of future success, as he's only won a championship twice without a multiple loss team the previous season.

This is only the second time (ignoring the 2007 season) Alabama won't follow up a multiple loss season with a championship, and I think the big mistake here was he wasn't as willing to make drastic changes. I think that will change...

I hate it, but I feel we maybe past the point of any sort of easy fix for this year. My view is (probably incorrect) that Coach Saban hired these coordinators with a view toward finishing out his career. They haven’t worked out well, and now he’s caught between a rock and a hard place. Does he have the energy and/or desire to build a new edifice? I don’t know……God Bless him either way!!

 

[PA Tide Fan]

There’s no coach in the world who would go for 2 after going up 7, 10, or 14 points. They’d all kick the ball.

If you look closely there is a fractionally better number kicking the ball if up 7 or 10 points although it's listed as "same". Perhaps Saban thought it's a fractionally better number going for 2 if up by 4 but like I said in another post I think these charts are a lot of theory that coaches are taking as gospel.

 

[MILEHIGHTIDE]

We’re not magically going to be okay because we’re Bama. We no longer impose our will on teams, we’re undisciplined, and our offensive and defensive schemes have been exposed and exploited. We’re a pretty average team at this point and nobody fears us. In fact, they smell the blood in the water. Major changes have to be made in the off-season to turn this around.

So what you are saying is that you do not feel that Saban, who is arguable the goat and has achieved this status in what many consider one the most competitive and dynamic eras of college football, can right the ship.

No one thought he would last this long but he has and he accomplished this by showning his willingness to pioneer, adapt and change. He also has continued to dominate in recruiting, arguably the life blood of any program. Just go look at the last 10 years of recruiting rankings and we have been #1 every year with the exception of finishing #2 twice and # 5 once, depending on the service you go by and we are currently ranked the #1class for 2023.

Coach Saban has overcome the highest assistant coaching oc dc turnover of any top program and has won multiple championships while doing so. I think he knows what needs to be done and am confident he will do it or at least I am willing to give him an opportunity before calling for him to retire or that the sky is falling. There are numerous issues on both sides of the ball, but they are all addressable and fixable which is why I say we are going to be okay.

Also, for the record and to delve a little deeper, I never said that we would magically be okay, but I also do not think it is the end of the world. If you have read any of my other posts I have non stop said that we need a new oc, dc and the sc program, on field energy, may need a look since cochran left, and for longer than most. I also said that the jawjaw tenner game would give a good insight as to how the game we had with them should have gone defensively had we had an elite dc because kirby, who runs the same type of d, will have a great game plan and they will stop tenner and adjust when necessary. Mind you jawjaw lost 8 defensive guys to the nfl last year and IMO defensively from a talent standpoint they are not better than our guys. I will take my chances with Coach Saban.

We are spoiled rotten as a fan base and it shows.

RTR

 

[ReturnToGlory]

Hard for me to wrap my mind around this fact: Brian Kelly took the mess he inherited from Coach O and beat the program that has had top recruiting classes for years.

 

[Tide-one-on]

Hard to believe our season has turned out this way. Sure didn't see this coming. Kinda shocked tonight

 

[CoachJeff]

Hard for me to wrap my mind around this fact: Brian Kelly took the mess he inherited from Coach O and beat the program that has had top recruiting classes for years.

In 2022 Kelly is a better coach than Saban. He had less talent at just about every position and won. He’s on the list of coaches that have outcoached Saban in the last two years, and that’s becoming an increasingly long list. His team has gotten better as the year has progressed (a weird concept!) and he’s actually had multiple games against good teams where you thought, “Wow, what a good job by the coaching staff” - something you haven’t heard about Alabama in 2022 and only once in the past 2 years.

 

[bamaga]

I will say , Alabama is looking more and more like the Houston Texans