Until recently I really figured that Saban would coach for another 3-5 years after this year. But during a few of my late evening bourbon think tank sessions, it wouldn't surprise me if he calls it quits sooner rather than later. I could be absolutely 100% wrong about this, but I think this new era that college football has transitioned to with the Transfer Portal/NIL really works against what might be Saban's biggest strength as a head coach....developing and maintaining a strong/consistent culture within the program.
The way I see it is that you can put most of the guys that Alabama signs in each recruiting class into a couple of categories....There are those very few that come in with a maturity well beyond their age...those guys genuinely see the big picture, and they are usually the ones that you see who earn early playing time because of that maturity level. Then I think most of the guys fall into this next group which are guys that are maybe mature for their age, but they are just young and maybe aren't used to not starting or playing so they have that thought of transferring because they aren't playing during their freshman year....Well to me its that group of guys where Saban has really succeeded in building the program to where it is. Reason being is because coach had two things working in his favor....a long list/track record of developing those guys in that second group into NFL draft picks....high draft picks for a lot of them; and the fact that anyone looking for more playing time will still have to sit out a year, which meant another year of no playing time; so those guys were more apt to stick it out.
Well now days those guys in that second group can hit the road without any real consequences, so now those guys are able to make what could be rash decisions, due to the fact that there is really no down side in doing so with the new transfer rules....So while Saban has always ran a tight ship, he may figure that he has to approach this new era of college football player in a different manner than he did under the ole rules. People have made note over the last few years that there appears to be a softer Saban...well that could be why.....so if he can't hold the players as accountable as he could with his previous teams then he could come the conclusion that this version of college football just doesn't do it for him anymore.
Guys like Sark, Kirby, and I think Lane in a much better position to succeed in this new era of college football because I think all of those guys will be able to take use a lot of what they learned from Saban about running a program, while also being young enough to adapt to the new landscape. I mean, just look at Deion....this new version of college football is perfect for his approach...but it's hard to build an actual program with that much roster turnover...however, the days of building an actual program might be few and far between going forward....