Punter Jay Williams backup?

We got spoiled with Tiffin's and Fitzgerald's development. Remember when they were freshmen? It wasn't pretty. And I never really had confidence in Tiffin in the clutch. Up until his senior year, it seemed he could bang 50+ when it didn't matter all that much, but struggled when we really needed it.

So I think Jay Williams' backup might not be player, but rather game strategy.

My guess is that we'll go for it on 4th down a lot more than we have in the past. Strange thing is, if you go into your playcalling strategy with that mindset, it frees you up on third down.

For instance: Suppose you're at midfield with 3rd and 6. You know that, if you're not thrown for a loss on 3rd, you're going on 4th. So 3rd and 6 is no longer so heavily weighted toward being a passing down.

Same thing with FG strategy. Especially early in the season, I don't think you'll see us putting Foster into many 40+ situations unless it's at the end of a half or the game. Whether that happens later on depends on the development of Foster's consistency and mental toughness during the year.

The caveat here is that you have the potential to put a lot of pressure on your D, so you need to be really confident in that side of the ball. And I'm on the fence about the 2010 D, especially early. On one hand, we lost a lot of experienced talent off the 2009 team. On the other, we have a ton of inexperienced talent returning. Does Saban believe they're up to the task? Only he and Kirby Smart know.

It's at an entirely different level, but there's a HS team in Texas that does this. They punt about 10 times a year or less, and they've gone really far in the state playoffs doing it. Maybe won a championship, but I'm not sure of that.
 
My guess is that we'll go for it on 4th down a lot more than we have in the past. Strange thing is, if you go into your playcalling strategy with that mindset, it frees you up on third down.

Interestingly enough, there's a math college professor who's done a lot of research in this area. His conclusion, just based on stats, was that a team should always go for it on 4th down - no matter the field position. I had a hard time swallowing it, so I leave the evaluation to CNS... :)
 
as posted after the spring game on another thread in this board under "punter situation"...kind of prophetic with Pharr now out...

""Question--anyone know why this kid didn't punt at A-Day? Why not keep him to insure good competition for Williams.

From another board...


"Anyone know why Sam didn't punt?I went to the ADay and at warmups I saw a #97 kicking 50+ yarders out of the endzone. He then proceeds to kick some 40+ yarders with punts sailing up as high as we were in the stands. So I fully expected him to punt. Then the game starts and the punter (forget his name at the moment) kicks the ball 20 or 30 yards every time. Two quarters come and go and I'm disappointed in our kicking game.

Then half time is almost over and out trot the punters. Here is #97 again kicking from middle of the endzone and landing punts on the opponents 45 yard line. I turned to my buddy and said "This kid has punted 3 punts in a row over 50 yards... WHY ISNT HE PUNTING?!?!"

Game starts and #97 is no where to be seen. What's the deal? I find out it is Sam Buckingham, but no idea why he isn't punting. Go ahead and bash, but out of the punters I saw in warmups this kid was the only one to kick it in the 45-50+ yard range every time.""

.....so here is a novel idea!! Go out and find Buckingham to see if he has caught on with another team. If not, invite him back to compete with and/or backup Jay Williams this fall. From what I read after the spring game, he would be back here in a minute!

The difference between when Fitzgerald was a freshmen and now with Williams, there is zero room for special team's mistakes. Not when you are ranked #1 in the preseason and looking for a repeat. Fitzgerald shanks one back then (as freshmen will surely do) no big deal. We have all season for him to get better.
Now a poor punting performance is critical, especially in the early season games when even our defense is untested as starters as well. The pressure after a shanked punt will be unbelievable! You try trotting out on the field for your next punt in front of 100,000.
A loss may doom you, two and were done. A bad shank equals bad field position and most likely six. Don't tell me that the other SEC teams don't know we have a freshmen punter. They are going to pressure the heck out of him.
 
Interestingly enough, there's a math college professor who's done a lot of research in this area. His conclusion, just based on stats, was that a team should always go for it on 4th down - no matter the field position. I had a hard time swallowing it, so I leave the evaluation to CNS... :)
Is it the same kind of math that determines that, on average, you are better off not buying insurance?
There's something to be said for security that pays off in the short term. You get cancer without medical insurance, you're done for. You go for it on every 4th down... Yeah.
Averages and all.
 
as posted after the spring game on another thread in this board under "punter situation"...kind of prophetic with Pharr now out...

""Question--anyone know why this kid didn't punt at A-Day? Why not keep him to insure good competition for Williams.

From another board...

"Anyone know why Sam didn't punt?I went to the ADay and at warmups I saw a #97 kicking 50+ yarders out of the endzone. He then proceeds to kick some 40+ yarders with punts sailing up as high as we were in the stands. So I fully expected him to punt. Then the game starts and the punter (forget his name at the moment) kicks the ball 20 or 30 yards every time. Two quarters come and go and I'm disappointed in our kicking game.

Then half time is almost over and out trot the punters. Here is #97 again kicking from middle of the endzone and landing punts on the opponents 45 yard line. I turned to my buddy and said "This kid has punted 3 punts in a row over 50 yards... WHY ISNT HE PUNTING?!?!"

Game starts and #97 is no where to be seen. What's the deal? I find out it is Sam Buckingham, but no idea why he isn't punting. Go ahead and bash, but out of the punters I saw in warmups this kid was the only one to kick it in the 45-50+ yard range every time.""

.....so here is a novel idea!! Go out and find Buckingham to see if he has caught on with another team. If not, invite him back to compete with and/or backup Jay Williams this fall. From what I read after the spring game, he would be back here in a minute!

The difference between when Fitzgerald was a freshmen and now with Williams, there is zero room for special team's mistakes. Not when you are ranked #1 in the preseason and looking for a repeat. Fitzgerald shanks one back then (as freshmen will surely do) no big deal. We have all season for him to get better.
Now a poor punting performance is critical, especially in the early season games when even our defense is untested as starters as well. The pressure after a shanked punt will be unbelievable! You try trotting out on the field for your next punt in front of 100,000.
A loss may doom you, two and were done. A bad shank equals bad field position and most likely six. Don't tell me that the other SEC teams don't know we have a freshmen punter. They are going to pressure the heck out of him.

No matter what anyone saw in warmups, Sam was not able to get it done. He did not punt well in day to day practices and was not consistent. There are many of us that forget we are not there for every practice to see the overall performance of each individual.
 
No matter what anyone saw in warmups, Sam was not able to get it done. He did not punt well in day to day practices and was not consistent. There are many of us that forget we are not there for every practice to see the overall performance of each individual.

...day to day I have been told he did improve, especially the last two weeks. Of course that is what "Practice" is for. Then when the chips are on the table..the spring game, he punts well in front of the A-day's 90,000 fans. Albeit in warm ups. I'll take that over punts in practice any day! I am sure the pressure was still very much on, thinking he was going to have a chance to punt if he warmed up well.
The punter in the spring game didn't have a rush the whole second half, is as close to warm ups as you can get. My point here is maybe Jay will work out just fine, but a backup would be nice... just in case.
 
Our back up will be a walk-on freshman coming in from Birmingham named O'Neal. My friend's nephew. He'll most likely make the travel squad because he can both place kick and punt.

Saban really wanted him but because we couldn't give him a scholly thought there was no way we could get him. Family are HUGE Bama fans and well off. They said "You don't understand, we're coming to Alabama! Don't worry about the scholarship, that's not a problem." Happy coaches!

Just one more case of Bama being Bama!
 
Re: Punter Jay Williams backup

Interestingly enough, there's a math college professor who's done a lot of research in this area. His conclusion, just based on stats, was that a team should always go for it on 4th down - no matter the field position. I had a hard time swallowing it, so I leave the evaluation to CNS... :)
If you're thinking of this article, he doesn't conclude that you should always go for it on 4th down, just always on 4th and 1 and much more often in other down and distance situations that coaches actually do. I would recommend reading the entire article, but here are the recommendations:
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Those recommendations are based on NFL averages, so if you have a punter and kicker that are relatively worse than average and and offense that is average or better, I would think that would swing the recommendations towards going for it even more. Of course this whole analysis does not address specific game situations, but it is food for thought.
 
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Is it the same kind of math that determines that, on average, you are better off not buying insurance?
There's something to be said for security that pays off in the short term. You get cancer without medical insurance, you're done for. You go for it on every 4th down... Yeah.
Averages and all.
Yes, decisions can't just be made with averages, but must take into account risk-adjusted averages and if you can live with the worse possible outcome. The insurance example is a little extreme for a football strategy comparison, however. In football, even the "safe" option can, and often does, have disastrous (relative to the game, not to life) consequences. Remember "Punt Bama Punt"?
 
TIDE-HSV was probably actually referring to this article by David Romer of UC Berkeley. It preceded the article I linked and it more academic, thus harder to follow without investing the time. The article I linked is a more accessible piece that reinforces the conclusions.
 
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