Russia invades Ukraine XV

[Tidewater]

Somewhat interested but not enough to invest two hours, so I'm thankful for those that are and have the willingness to sum it up.

Even if it is nonsensical, it is always good to hear it in the tyrants own words. Think Allied intelligence officers would want to hear a two hour interview with Hitler in 1942? It would doubtless be two hours of "the Jewish-Bolshevik conspiracy to rule the world," etc. etc. but hearing things directly from HItler illuminates what he is thinking.

It is ironic, for all his talk of fighting fascism, the leader he most closely resembles is der Fuhrer. He is just not as successful.

 

[Tidewater]

So, nothing new? Sounds like the same stuff he and/or his lackeys have peddled since the invasion.
"Наступление России и нового мира"

Not much new. The idea that he is willing to negotiate the ending of the Ukraine conflict might be new. Of course, he won't honor any agreement he makes. Russia agreed to remove Russian 14th Army from Transnistria in the 1990s but they are still there. The Russians agreed to allow OSCE monitors monitor the border between Russia and Ukraine, then only allowed them to monitor 6 of the eleven border crossing points.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Even if it is nonsensical, it is always good to hear it in the tyrants own words. Think Allied intelligence officers would want to hear a two hour interview with Hitler in 1942? It would doubtless be two hours of "the Jewish-Bolshevik conspiracy to rule the world," etc. etc. but hearing things directly from HItler illuminates what he is thinking.

Yes of course, but I'm not intelligence (some would argue of any sort).

So for me a summation from someone trustworthy is good.

 

[Tidewater]

What really stunned me was what he did not say. The desires of the peoples of smaller countries do not enter into it. For him, "the West" promised NATO would not advance beyond its 1989 borders. But what if the people of Estonia decide they want to join NATO? Or the people of Poland, or Romania, etc.? I gather in his view, that does nto matter. Only the desires of great powers matter.
Putin also said that the decision to leave the door open to Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO spooked him (my words, not his). The actual NATO pronouncement (to avoid embarassing the French and Germans who were opposed to Ukraine joining NATO) was that countries with unresolved territorial disputes could not proceed with a Membership Action Plan. Within four months of this announcement, Georgia had (surprise!) an unresolved border dispute (The Russo-Georgian War of August 2008). Within six years, Ukraine had one as well.
From Putin's perspective, it went like this. "I do not want any more countries joining NATO, especially not Russia's contiguous neighbors. NATO has said they will not allow a country to join if I invade and hold a small portion of their territory. Okay, let's invade. Problem solved."

 

[crimsonaudio]

What really stunned me was what he did not say. The desires of the peoples of smaller countries do not enter into it. For him, "the West" promised NATO would not advance beyond its 1989 borders. But what if the people of Estonia decide they want to join NATO? Or the people of Poland, or Romania, etc.? I gather in his view, that does nto matter. Only the desires of great powers matter.

I get it, but I can also see where that could be seen as provocation.

We didn't exactly like it when Cuba got cozy with the USSR - was that because we don't care about 'little countries' or was it because it appeared to be a provocative escalation?

From Putin's perspective, it went like this. "I do not want any more countries joining NATO, especially not Russia's contiguous neighbors. NATO has said they will not allow a country to join if I invade and hold a small portion of their territory. Okay, let's invade. Problem solved."

Before saying anything else, let me say this: Putin is evil as is the invasion of Ukraine. Full Stop.

But I'll also say that some of these actions, when viewed from his perspective, are understandable. Just as we saw the USSR as encroaching on our 'safe space' he could very well view NATO expansion similarly.

 

[Tidewater]

I get it, but I can also see where that could be seen as provocation.

We didn't exactly like it when Cuba got cozy with the USSR - was that because we don't care about 'little countries' or was it because it appeared to be a provocative escalation?


Before saying anything else, let me say this: Putin is evil as is the invasion of Ukraine. Full Stop.

But I'll also say that some of these actions, when viewed from his perspective, are understandable. Just as we saw the USSR as encroaching on our 'safe space' he could very well view NATO expansion similarly.

Here's the ironic bit. Before Poland joined NATO, Poland, like every sovereign state, had an army.
Then Poland joined NATO, and according to Russian propagandists, those Polish soldiers suddenly became "NATO soldiers," like NATO had moved troops closer to Russia, when in fact they were already there. Poland, in fact, probably reduced the size of her armed forces (which is why you join NATO, burden-sharing and economizing). So there were no additional troops along Russia's borders, and the American troops stayed in Germany, where they had been since 1944.
Then Putin invades Ukraine in 2014, and for the first time, NATO moves troops close to Russia, one battalion (about 1,000 soldiers) each into Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, in a policy called "Enhanced Forward Presence." That was not enough to invade Russia and they are there only as a tripwire, to get killed so NATO cannot back out of defending the Baltic States. Furthermore, it is probably negotiable. If Putin were to die and the next guy called NATO and said, "I'm pulling my troops out of Transnistria, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia. We want to de-escalate things, if you withdraw the EFP battlegroups, it will be a welcome gesture," I think NATO would accept that.

Only Putin's bad behavior has caused NATO to move troops further east.

 

[Tidewater]

I listened to the entire two hours.
When asked why he invaded Ukraine, he started a 30 minute lecture on Russian history going back to 983, and taking a little detour in 1644, and basically argued, "We used to own that place so it is ours." ["Mr. Putin, the Mongols are on line 1."]

And right on cue...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1756818696700657935

Mongol President reminds Putin of how big the Mongol empire was.

 

[4Q Basket Case]

We’re expecting logical consistency and keeping one’s word from Vladimir Putin? And surprised when he takes a grain of truth, blows it into Mt. Everest, and ignores contrary facts he finds to be inconvenient?

The man lies, steals and cheats his own people. He has never honored a contract or treaty with any country or business.

He’s a psychopath, and should be treated as such. Never believe a word he says, and trust his intentions only to the extent you can back up your own interests by force. He doesn’t understand, let alone respect, anything else.

 

[NationalTitles18]

We’re expecting logical consistency and keeping one’s word from Vladimir Putin? And surprised when he takes a grain of truth, blows it into Mt. Everest, and ignores contrary facts he finds to be inconvenient?

The man lies, steals and cheats his own people. He has never honored a contract or treaty with any country or business.

He’s a psychopath, and should be treated as such. Never believe a word he says, and trust his intentions only to the extent you can back up your own interests by force. He doesn’t understand, let alone respect, anything else.

Not to sidetrack, but I seriously had to figure out if you were speaking of Trump or Putin for a moment there. No joke.

 

[Chukker Veteran]

I heard a radio interview with Tubberville. He says “Putin is at the top of his game.”

he goes on to say when NATO positioned weapons on the Russian border, as directed by the U.S., it left Putin no choice but to attack Ukraine. Then he starts up nonsense about Russian weapons in Mexico as if it’s a remotely similar situation.

 

[NationalTitles18]

The republican plan to give Ukraine to Putin is working just how they planned it.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-troops-withdraw-avdiivka-ammunition-shortage-bites-2024-02-17/

Ukrainian troops withdrew from the devastated eastern town of Avdiivka, Kyiv's military chief said on Saturday, paving the way for Russia's biggest advance since it captured the city of Bakhmut last May.
The pullback, announced as Ukraine faces acute shortages of ammunition with U.S. military aid delayed for months in Congress, aimed to save troops from being fully surrounded by Russian forces after months of fierce fighting, Kyiv said.

 

[JDCrimson]

American in Andiivika

 

[crimsonaudio]

 

[CrimsonRuss]

@Tidewater have you seen this interview? If so, what are your thoughts any truth to this or is it propaganda?

 

[Tidewater]

@Tidewater have you seen this interview? If so, what are your thoughts any truth to this or is it propaganda?

I have not seen that.
MacGregor is an odd duck. He used to be one of the "go to" military guys on Fox. Since 2022, he has expressed some strange views. He is particularly harsh on the Ukrainians.
It is possible the Russians have co-opted him (he is the kind of guy they would go after). I would advise caution and skepticism.
The Ukrainians have invited some Western observers to near the front to talk to Ukrainian commanders (two that I know and whose opinions I respect are Ben Hodges and Michael Kofman).
I doubt the Ukrainians would allow MacGregor to go near the front to talk to Ukrainian commanders, so what he says is second or third hand.
What you get from the Russian side are Russian mil bloggers that the Kremlin wants to see things because those mil bloggers have shown themselves to be reliably pro-Kremlin.
Getting unbiased assessments from the front in this conflict have been tough (both sides have classified their own casualty figures), but, in general I trust the pro-Ukrainian sources more than the pro-Russian ones.

Bottom line: listen to MacGregor, but listen critically.

 

[CrimsonRuss]

I have not seen that.
MacGregor is an odd duck. He used to be one of the "go to" military guys on Fox. Since 2022, he has expressed some strange views. He is particularly harsh on the Ukrainians.
It is possible the Russians have co-opted him (he is the kind of guy they would go after). I would advise caution and skepticism.
The Ukrainians have invited some Western observers to near the front to talk to Ukrainian commenders (two that I know and whose opinions I respect are Ben Hodges and Michael Kofman).
I doubt the Ukrainians would allow MacGregor to go near the front to talk to Ukrainian commanders, so what he says is second or third hand.
What you get from the Russian side are Russian mil bloggers that the Kremlin wants to see things because those mil bloggers have shown themselves to be reliably pro-Kremlin.
Getting unbiased assessments from the front in this conflict have been tough (both sides have classified casualty figures), but, in general I trust the pro-Ukrainian sources more than the pro-Russian ones.

Bottom line: listen to MacGregor, but listen critically.

The most disturbing thing to me that MacGregor had to say was about the current state of our military. That’s what I would honestly like to know your opinion of.
How we are lacking in ballistic/missile defense an out inability for surge production if we ever got into a conflict with a major power.

 

[Tidewater]

The most disturbing thing to me that MacGregor had to say was about the current state of our military. That’s what I would honestly like to know your opinion of.
How we are lacking in ballistic/missile defense an out inability for surge production if we ever got into a conflict with a major power.

Well, here is the deal on "surge production."
If DoD tells industry "we want 500 155mm artillery shells/month. Who has the lowest bid?" You get cheaper artillery shells. If you want 500/month and want the manufacturer to maintain the ability to expand to 10,000/month, you will pay for that. A lot more. That will come with the 500/month figure. Plus, produce 10,000/month and get the cost/round down, then you have to store all those rounds, which also costs money.
If you tell Raytheon, "We want 2 Patriots/month," they will cost $X/missile. If you want 2/month and you want Raytheon to keep open an assembly line for 50/month, then the cost of the 2 you buy will be a lot more.

 

[crimsonaudio]

 

[Bazza]

Russia is entering its third year of war in Ukraine with an unprecedented amount of cash in government coffers, bolstered by a record $37 billion of crude oil sales to India last year, according to new analysis, which concludes that some of the crude was refined by India and then exported to the United States as oil products worth more than $1 billion.

 

[Chukker Veteran]

I just watched a nightmare report on a nuclear facility in Ukraine that is on a river in Ukraine. The Ukrainians hold one riverbank, the Russians hold the other. The place is on the verge of a meltdown that would contaminate that section of Europe.

And Mike Johnson is on vacation taking selfies with Trump.