Russia Invades Ukraine XVIII

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TIDE-HSV

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Bazza

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So they started out trying to go through the countryside and then got back on the road?

Maybe this is what he was referring to.......

North of Kyiv Ukrainian Armed Forces found am entire Russian Armoured Section abandoned after sinking in the mud. 10th March 2022


There's also this account:

Forty-eight hours after that first satellite photograph, on 28 February 2022, the line of vehicles had grown to a colossal 35 miles (56 km) long. The vehicles were stalled for weeks. Then finally they retreated, and seemingly disappeared overnight.

What happened? Why did such a massive force fail to reach Kyiv?

Kitted out with the wrong tyres and surrounded by snow, the Russians drove straight into a mud bath. Civilians close to Ivankiv describe Russian soldiers telling Ukrainian farmers to help pull their tanks out of the sludge.

Unable to progress, the Russian vehicles needed to divert to paved roads in order to avoid soft ground, forcing thousands to group into a single column.

But with limited communication between the battalions, they almost immediately converged into one almighty traffic jam.

As one military expert on the ground put it: "You don't ever travel into hostile territory in a long convoy. Ever."

Based on witness testimony and intelligence from the Ukrainian military, we were able to map the ground the convoy covered in the time between the outbreak of war and the end of March. By avoiding traveling across fields, vehicles ended up on most of the main roads north of Kyiv.

 

TIDE-HSV

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So they started out trying to go through the countryside and then got back on the road?

Maybe this is what he was referring to.......

North of Kyiv Ukrainian Armed Forces found am entire Russian Armoured Section abandoned after sinking in the mud. 10th March 2022


There's also this account:

Forty-eight hours after that first satellite photograph, on 28 February 2022, the line of vehicles had grown to a colossal 35 miles (56 km) long. The vehicles were stalled for weeks. Then finally they retreated, and seemingly disappeared overnight.

What happened? Why did such a massive force fail to reach Kyiv?

Kitted out with the wrong tyres and surrounded by snow, the Russians drove straight into a mud bath. Civilians close to Ivankiv describe Russian soldiers telling Ukrainian farmers to help pull their tanks out of the sludge.

Unable to progress, the Russian vehicles needed to divert to paved roads in order to avoid soft ground, forcing thousands to group into a single column.

But with limited communication between the battalions, they almost immediately converged into one almighty traffic jam.

As one military expert on the ground put it: "You don't ever travel into hostile territory in a long convoy. Ever."

Based on witness testimony and intelligence from the Ukrainian military, we were able to map the ground the convoy covered in the time between the outbreak of war and the end of March. By avoiding traveling across fields, vehicles ended up on most of the main roads north of Kyiv.

That's a correct account, but he believes they were on the road by choice...
 

some_al_fan

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It is also possible that Trump is intentionally trying to downplay Ukrainian military and give much more credit to Russian forces than necessary.
In reality, it was Ukrainian military and volunteers who stopped Russian advances. Sure, weather has helped some, but it was still about the Ukrainian people.
 
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Bazza

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That's a correct account, but he believes they were on the road by choice...
OK thanks. I couldn't remember by memory and had to look it up.

Also was able to verify we sold them Javelins during his first term before Russia invaded. Trump mentioned this during the same press conference.

Ukraine receives U.S. Javelin systems: Poroshenko
By Reuters
April 30, 2018 2:40 PM EDT Updated April 30, 2018

KIEV (Reuters) - Ukraine has received the first U.S. Javelin missiles and launch units, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said on Monday.
In March the U.S. State Department approved the possible sale of Javelin systems to Ukraine at an estimated cost of $47 million.
"I can confirm that the long-awaited weapon arrived in the Ukrainian army" Poroshenko said on Facebook.
Kiev and Washington believe that the Javelin system will help Ukraine build its long-term defense capacity.
 

some_al_fan

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OK thanks. I couldn't remember by memory and had to look it up.

Also was able to verify we sold them Javelins during his first term before Russia invaded. Trump mentioned this during the same press conference.
What Trump did not mention is that this sale of Javelins had a requirement not to be used in the conflict zone.

--------
Under the rules of the sale, the Javelin missiles have to be stored in western Ukraine, which is far
from the frontlines of the ongoing conflict in the eastern part of the country (the Donbas region)
against pro-Russia separatists.
In short, the Javelins were essentially provided to Ukraine under the condition that they not be used
in the conflict zone.
--------

 

Tidewater

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So they started out trying to go through the countryside and then got back on the road?

Maybe this is what he was referring to.......

North of Kyiv Ukrainian Armed Forces found am entire Russian Armoured Section abandoned after sinking in the mud. 10th March 2022


There's also this account:

Forty-eight hours after that first satellite photograph, on 28 February 2022, the line of vehicles had grown to a colossal 35 miles (56 km) long. The vehicles were stalled for weeks. Then finally they retreated, and seemingly disappeared overnight.

What happened? Why did such a massive force fail to reach Kyiv?

Kitted out with the wrong tyres and surrounded by snow, the Russians drove straight into a mud bath. Civilians close to Ivankiv describe Russian soldiers telling Ukrainian farmers to help pull their tanks out of the sludge.

Unable to progress, the Russian vehicles needed to divert to paved roads in order to avoid soft ground, forcing thousands to group into a single column.

But with limited communication between the battalions, they almost immediately converged into one almighty traffic jam.

As one military expert on the ground put it: "You don't ever travel into hostile territory in a long convoy. Ever."

Based on witness testimony and intelligence from the Ukrainian military, we were able to map the ground the convoy covered in the time between the outbreak of war and the end of March. By avoiding traveling across fields, vehicles ended up on most of the main roads north of Kyiv.

There is also a period in the spring and fall called the rasputitsa. In the fall it is when autumn rains start anmd in the spring it is when the ice melts.
Horrible time for cross-country mobility, even tracked vehicles. You just have to wait it out.
Of course, the Russian General Staff knews this, but I guess they were gambling on finishing the Ukrainians off before the spring thaw.
 
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Tidewater

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What Trump did not mention is that this sale of Javelins had a requirement not to be used in the conflict zone.

--------
Under the rules of the sale, the Javelin missiles have to be stored in western Ukraine, which is far
from the frontlines of the ongoing conflict in the eastern part of the country (the Donbas region)
against pro-Russia separatists.
In short, the Javelins were essentially provided to Ukraine under the condition that they not be used
in the conflict zone.
--------

That is true, but it appears that the Ukrainians disregarded that restriction once the February 2022 invasion happened.
It may be difficult to understand, but the level of administrative effort to get one Javelin sent is significantly more than increasing the amount from 1 to 1,000. Getting the first one sent is extremely difficult (mostly because of legal reviews and congressional restrictions on military assistance). Shipping the next 999 is simply logistics (which the US generally do very well).
 
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Bazza

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What Trump did not mention is that this sale of Javelins had a requirement not to be used in the conflict zone.

--------
Under the rules of the sale, the Javelin missiles have to be stored in western Ukraine, which is far
from the frontlines of the ongoing conflict in the eastern part of the country (the Donbas region)
against pro-Russia separatists.
In short, the Javelins were essentially provided to Ukraine under the condition that they not be used
in the conflict zone.
--------

I'm not an expert but I think at the time they were sold many were concerned about not escalating the situation, but more about providing deterrence.

But once the tanks started rolling in years later - how would anyone know it wasn't the javelins we sold them that they were using?
 

crimsonaudio

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Trump has been both a blessing and a curse for Ukraine - while his view seems to be skewed towards the invader rather than the defender, at least he sent more than a sternly worded letter and some medical supplies.
 
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TIDE-HSV

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Trump has been both a blessing and a curse for Ukraine - while his view seems to be skewed towards the invader rather than the defender, at least he sent more than a sternly worded letter and some medical supplies.
The problem is the concealed stick. If they don't do exactly what he wants, swap land for peace, then the threat is to choke off arms shipments totally...
 

some_al_fan

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Trump has been both a blessing and a curse for Ukraine - while his view seems to be skewed towards the invader rather than the defender, at least he sent more than a sternly worded letter and some medical supplies.
If you are talking about Trump’s first presidency, then yes.
However, if you are talking about his second term, then he has been squarely on the russian side.
 

crimsonaudio

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If you are talking about Trump’s first presidency, then yes.
However, if you are talking about his second term, then he has been squarely on the russian side.
I'm talking in total.

I give Trump credit for actually sending some help during his first presidency. I don't recall a lot of hate from the left when Obama refused any military aid after Russia first invaded Ukraine.

But I'm also critical of Trump as he seems to side with Putin most of the time.

That said, I think more than anything he wants the fighting to stop as no matter how much money / weaponry other countries dump into Ukraine it's not going to end well for them if it continues. As I've stated multiple times, without foreign boots on the ground I don't think anyone believes Ukraine can stop Russia, and while I absolutely HATE the idea of the bad guy 'winning', it's either find a way to stop the war now or watch as Russia slowly but surely takes the entire country.

It sucks, but that's the real world sometimes.
 

some_al_fan

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I'm talking in total.

I give Trump credit for actually sending some help during his first presidency. I don't recall a lot of hate from the left when Obama refused any military aid after Russia first invaded Ukraine.

But I'm also critical of Trump as he seems to side with Putin most of the time.

That said, I think more than anything he wants the fighting to stop as no matter how much money / weaponry other countries dump into Ukraine it's not going to end well for them if it continues. As I've stated multiple times, without foreign boots on the ground I don't think anyone believes Ukraine can stop Russia, and while I absolutely HATE the idea of the bad guy 'winning', it's either find a way to stop the war now or watch as Russia slowly but surely takes the entire country.

It sucks, but that's the real world sometimes.
I’ve heard that argument many times since Trump has become president. But it completely misses the reality. And the truth is that Putin won’t stop until he has most, if not all, of Ukraine.
There is no “stop the war now” option. What Putin wants is to get more Ukrainian land without fighting for it. He will be happy to get it “for free” now to rebuild his army and take the rest of Ukraine a few years later. That is the worst possible outcome, which Trump is trying to push for and fire up his base to support.
 

crimsonaudio

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I’ve heard that argument many times since Trump has become president. But it completely misses the reality. And the truth is that Putin won’t stop until he has most, if not all, of Ukraine.
There is no “stop the war now” option. What Putin wants is to get more Ukrainian land without fighting for it. He will be happy to get it “for free” now to rebuild his army and take the rest of Ukraine a few years later. That is the worst possible outcome, which Trump is trying to push for and fire up his base to support.
I’ve been hearing (and making) this argument since before Trump won - whether or not a ceasefire will preserve some of Ukraine is unknowable, but we do know Ukraine cannot push the russkies back off their land - the simply do not have the manpower. The war experts I’ve read almost universally agree with this.

So unless you see foreign boots on the ground in Ukraine your options are 1) have a chance at stopping the war, even if it means Ukraine losing the roughly 20% Russia has stolen, or 2) keep fighting and watch Russia slowly but surely take the whole country.

Hopes and wishes don’t matter.
 

crimsonaudio

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An example : if the US decided to invade Mexico, they couldn’t stop us. All the countries of the world could pour money and military aid into Mexico and all it would do was slow us down.

Putin is an evil person, but he has an enormous military to execute his whims. If there is a ceasefire that at least gives Ukraine time
to load up on weapons and further develop new weapons and plans.
 
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