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Russia Invades Ukraine XVIII

Its On A Slab

Its On A Slab

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Bazza said:
www.fox35orlando.com

Russia Ukraine cease-fire deal: Putin says he agrees with US proposal

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that Russia agrees in principle with the U.S. ceasefire proposal, but the terms need to be worked out.
www.fox35orlando.com www.fox35orlando.com
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Trust, but verify - comes to mind.

I think it's Pollyanna-ish to think either side is going to trust the other. Ukraine has been invaded twice in the past 11 years, and Putin has made it clear that he wants Russia to regain its old Soviet "sphere of influence".

Then, if we have a DMZ, what nations are going to man the peacekeeping role, and what will be the rules of engagement. Russia was supposed to be a peacekeeping nation in Nagorno-Karabakh and they just sat by and let Azerbaijan run roughshod over the province. Peacekeepers have never been very reliable in preventing aggression. If NATO nations provide the manpower, will that be seen as an overt threat from the Kremlin?
 
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Tidewater

Tidewater

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Its On A Slab said:
Trust, but verify - comes to mind.

I think it's Pollyanna-ish to think either side is going to trust the other. Ukraine has been invaded twice in the past 11 years, and Putin has made it clear that he wants Russia to regain its old Soviet "sphere of influence".

Then, if we have a DMZ, what nations are going to man the peacekeeping role, and what will be the rules of engagement. Russia was supposed to be a peacekeeping nation in Nagorno-Karabakh and they just sat by and let Azerbaijan run roughshod over the province. Peacekeepers have never been very reliable in preventing aggression. If NATO nations provide the manpower, will that be seen as an overt threat from the Kremlin?
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Good questions. I would not call it a DMZ but a Zone of Separation (a la Bosnia).
I wouyld say British and French and maybe German troops. The Russians will balk at that, but if they get partial sanctions relief and no NATO membership for Ukraine in exchange, they might be willing to accept it. If it is Indian and Nigerian troops, they will not bring the capabilities and/or discipline to keep the peace. The peacekeepers must have the capability and the mandate (if some local commander on either side decides to try to restart the fighting) to crush violators.

If all that happens, it will look a lot like Brian Kellog's peace plan from last spring. A lot of "ifs" but at least we are making progress to ending the complete death of Ukraine.
 
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Its On A Slab

Its On A Slab

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Tidewater said:
Good questions. I would not call it a DMZ but a Zone of Separation (a la Bosnia).
I wouyld say British and French and maybe German troops. The Russians will balk at that, but if they get partial sanctions relief and no NATO membership for Ukraine in exchange, they might be willing to accept it. If it is Indian and Nigerian troops, they will not bring the capabilities and/or discipline to keep the peace. The peacekeepers must have the capability and the mandate (if some local commander on either side decides to try to restart the fighting) to crush violators.

If all that happens, it will look a lot like Brian Kellog's peace plan from last spring. A lot of "ifs" but at least we are making progress to ending the complete death of Ukraine.
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When I read where India was being considered as peacekeepers, I figured this was not going to end well. I haven't heard Nigeria. An even worse prognosis there.

BTW, I think your link is broken. I can't pull it up.

Kellog is part of The America First Policy Institute. While I don't know exactly the political leaning of this body, I'm thinking it's more along the lines of America First 1939. Let Europe figure its own problems out. History has not been kind to this line of thinking.
 
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Huckleberry

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1900555033411756122

Yaroslav Trofimov (Chief Foreign-Affairs Correspondent of The Wall Street Journal ):

I have a very serious question: does the president of the United States rely on any information about the battlefield situation in Ukraine that doesn’t come from Putin’s conversations with Witkoff? Because there aren’t thousands of helpless Ukrainian troops in full encirclement. And asking Putin for an imaginary favor is quite a way to move the goalpost after Putin refused the unconditional 30-day ceasefire.

1741976741691.png
 
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Tidewater

Tidewater

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Its On A Slab said:
When I read where India was being considered as peacekeepers, I figured this was not going to end well. I haven't heard Nigeria. An even worse prognosis there.

BTW, I think your link is broken. I can't pull it up.

Kellog is part of The America First Policy Institute. While I don't know exactly the political leaning of this body, I'm thinking it's more along the lines of America First 1939. Let Europe figure its own problems out. History has not been kind to this line of thinking.
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I was pulling Nigeria out of thin air. Nobody has suggested them that I know of. I have heard India and China, but I seriously doubt BRICs nations could be relied upon to police violations by Russia.
AFPI is "Trump's think tank," with all the good and bad that comes with that. (A) I do not think they are unbiased but (B) I do think what they say probably has it has Trump's stamp of approval or at least tacit acknowledgement. Trump is probably aware of Kellog's peace plan. Kellog is the lead negotiator of the deal. Kellog's plan is at least a going in proposal and what Kellog is working towards.
 
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Tidewater

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JDCrimson said:
Hasnt this been tried already? What else can be implemented that would stop Russia's advance? They can keep their economy creeping along trading with China, North Korea, and satellite countries especially if they borrow troops from these countries for continuing the fight.
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Sanctions are not an "on/off" deal. There are myriad shades of grey.
The Biden Administration tried to gradually ratchet up the pressure by adding more and more sanctions.
Over the long run, however, sanctions lose some of their impact as the targeted country develops alternative sources (say of computer chips) or new customers (for example increasing pipeline capacity to China) or Burma purchasing Russia oil (at a discount) and "repackaging" it as Burmese oil and selling it on the global market.
I do not know what still-existing means exist to "devastate" the Russian economy, but I would assume there are folks in Washington pondering that questions.
 
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Tidewater

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I'm happy to see more pressure brought on the Russians to get them to the table and get them to accept a peace deal.
That sucks for the folks who live around and work at the oil refinery or who use that bridge, but the pain stops once Russia accepts a deal.
 
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Tidewater

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Bamaro said:
Id rather see this used against true Russian territory
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I would imagine that the AASM has delivery issues (to engage targets inside Russia, you have to fly into Russian air space, and thus within range of Russian air defenses).

Long Neptune does not face that problem (but is probably a lot more expensive).
 
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