Russia Invades Ukraine XVIII

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Bazza

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The devil, I would imagine, is in the details.
If the pollster were to place conditions on that (i.e. peace, but Russia continues to occupy the Ukrainian land it now does, no reparations, no NATO membership for Ukraine just "security guarantees" and EU economic and NATO military aid to Ukraine, I would be interested in the poll results under those conditions.
It included comparisons from a certain time period vs. now in how people felt about the war.

I think that was the gist - how sentiment for the war has changed over time.....

I will look for the segment.

EDIT: here it is:

Major shifts: Ukrainians who back fighting for full war victory vs. Russia has collapsed from 73% in 2022 to 24% now. Support for a negotiated end is up to 69%, as few (25%) think the war will end soon. Belief that Ukraine will join NATO soon is down from 64% (2022) to 32% now

 
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some_al_fan

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No, I don't think so. He's merely pointing out that the "top secret" documents found at the hotel were anything but.
The NPR article says “sensitive”, not “top secret”.
These documents appear sensitive to me, as they contain unpublished details about scheduling, presents, etc.
 

some_al_fan

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It included comparisons from a certain time period vs. now in how people felt about the war.

I think that was the gist - how sentiment for the war has changed over time.....

I will look for the segment.

EDIT: here it is:

Major shifts: Ukrainians who back fighting for full war victory vs. Russia has collapsed from 73% in 2022 to 24% now. Support for a negotiated end is up to 69%, as few (25%) think the war will end soon. Belief that Ukraine will join NATO soon is down from 64% (2022) to 32% now

Here is the actual poll: https://news.gallup.com/poll/693203/ukrainian-support-war-effort-collapses.aspx

Pretty interesting read, since it contains more info.
 

Bamaro

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Everybody seems to be calculating how much territory Ukraine needs to give up for 'peace'. I havnt heard anything about what Putin is giving up. If Ukraine gives up any territory, they must be allowed to join NATO ASAP. If Putin doesn't like that, tough. Strangle Russia economically (no, we haven't done enough yet) and the oligarchs will take care of Putin.
 

Tidewater

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I have heard American journalists say that Putin is demanding Ukraine evacuate the portion of Donetsk that they now hold. I would like to see a source for that. I have been deceived enough by American journalists that I would prefer another source. It could be that Putin did indeed make the demand, with the expectation that Ukraine would give in. Or he made the demand with the intention of Russia subsequently giving in on that point to show Russia is willing to compromise. Or it could be that American journalists are sloppy and stupid and too lazy to request clarification.
 

crimsonaudio

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Everybody seems to be calculating how much territory Ukraine needs to give up for 'peace'. I havnt heard anything about what Putin is giving up. If Ukraine gives up any territory, they must be allowed to join NATO ASAP. If Putin doesn't like that, tough. Strangle Russia economically (no, we haven't done enough yet) and the oligarchs will take care of Putin.
As previously stated, it's not about what Russia likes, but rather that the vote to allow Ukraine into NATO must be unanimous. That's one sticking point among a few, from what I've read. Sure, all of them can be danced around, but I'm not sure how ready the EU is to allow Ukraine in knowing that if Russia pushes anymore in Ukraine they'd be obligated to defend.

One real problem is we have people constantly speaking out of both sides of their mouths - Russia both a threat to NATO and at the same time intimidated / scared of NATO.
 
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some_al_fan

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I have heard American journalists say that Putin is demanding Ukraine evacuate the portion of Donetsk that they now hold. I would like to see a source for that. I have been deceived enough by American journalists that I would prefer another source. It could be that Putin did indeed make the demand, with the expectation that Ukraine would give in. Or he made the demand with the intention of Russia subsequently giving in on that point to show Russia is willing to compromise. Or it could be that American journalists are sloppy and stupid and too lazy to request clarification.
There are multiple sources of that, including American, British, and Ukrainian (they post in multiple languages), etc. news sites.

Here are British news sites: https://www.the-independent.com/new...bas-region-trump-putin-zelensky-b2809329.html

Reuters:

Ukrainian:

Are you looking for anything in particular?
 
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some_al_fan

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Everybody seems to be calculating how much territory Ukraine needs to give up for 'peace'. I havnt heard anything about what Putin is giving up. If Ukraine gives up any territory, they must be allowed to join NATO ASAP. If Putin doesn't like that, tough. Strangle Russia economically (no, we haven't done enough yet) and the oligarchs will take care of Putin.
About NATO:

1755547102118.png
 

Tidewater

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There are multiple sources of that, including American, British, and Ukrainian (they post in multiple languages), etc. news sites.

Here are British news sites: https://www.the-independent.com/new...bas-region-trump-putin-zelensky-b2809329.html

Reuters:

Ukrainian:

Are you looking for anything in particular?
Just the detail on what the Russian demand was. "Donbas" is a region in Ukraine. Traditionally, the boundary betwen the Zaporizhzhian sich and the Don Cossack host. Traditionally, it includes the northern part of Donetsk and the southern part of Luhansk. Between 2014 and 2022, it included this:
Donbas_(2015–2022).jpg
In some definitions, Donbas includes the Rostov Oblast of Russia. You can see from the map that the Donets River flows into the Don River inside Russian territory.
The bottom line is using "Donbas" is shorthand and is a bit ambiguous, depending on which sense was intended.
 

Tidewater

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There are multiple sources of that, including American, British, and Ukrainian (they post in multiple languages), etc. news sites.

Here are British news sites: https://www.the-independent.com/new...bas-region-trump-putin-zelensky-b2809329.html

Reuters:

Ukrainian:

Are you looking for anything in particular?
Of the sources you provided, Reuters is the most reliable.
"Russia would relinquish tiny pockets of occupied Ukraine and Kyiv would cede swathes of its eastern land which Moscow has been unable to capture, under peace proposals discussed by ... Putin and ... Trump."

This was the operative quote: "It was not immediately clear if the proposals by Putin were an opening gambit to serve as a starting point for negotiations or more like a final offer that was not subject to discussion."
 

some_al_fan

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Just the detail on what the Russian demand was. "Donbas" is a region in Ukraine. Traditionally, the boundary betwen the Zaporizhzhian sich and the Don Cossack host. Traditionally, it includes the northern part of Donetsk and the southern part of Luhansk. Between 2014 and 2022, it included this:
View attachment 52249
In some definitions, Donbas includes the Rostov Oblast of Russia. You can see from the map that the Donets River flows into the Don River inside Russian territory.
The bottom line is using "Donbas" is shorthand and is a bit ambiguous, depending on which sense was intended.
Putin / Russia is using the administrative boundaries of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions as its definition of Donbas.
Ukraine currently controls ~40% of the Donetsk region, including cities such as Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, and that is what Putin wants to get “for free” as part of the deal.
 
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Tidewater

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Putin / Russia is using the administrative boundaries of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions as its definition of Donbas.
Ukraine currently controls ~40% of the Donetsk region, including cities such as Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, and that is what Putin wants to get “for free” as part of the deal.
In the source you just provided, Witkoff is quoted as saying, "there should be territorial concessions on both sides." If that mean freeze the front lines, then Ukraine will have made huge concessions already. I have not seen any reliable source stating that the Russians demand the unconquered portion of Donetsk Oblast, only journalists' conjectures.
Demanding Russia pull back from the tiny enclaves along the Ukrainian border near Sumy and Kharkiv it has seized would amount to concession, although the ratio of land swapped would be 99:1. That may well be why Russia seized those tiny enclaves in the first place.

The bottom line is nobody who was not in the room knows the specific Russian demands were and God only knows what the eventual deal will look like.
 
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