SEC West Breakdown

BamaBacker

New Member
May 31, 2001
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Troy, AL, USA
On a slow morning, some thoughts on SEC West Division Race:

LSU - They've got to be the favorite for this year, but will not be as dominant as last year. The Tigers lose talented WR's and a couple of the best DL in the nation. Alas, they will reload.
They have UGA and UF on the road in consecutive weeks and must beat AU at home if they want to go to Atlanta again this year. I think they lose to UGA and UF, go 6-2 and go the the SECCG once again...barely.

Auburn - I watched the 2003 Iron Bowl again last night. This teams offense could be very good; they are as athletic as any offense in the SEC. The defensive front 7 will be porous this year, however, losing thier 3 best DL and thier 2 best LB's. I think AU loses against LSU, UGA (owns Jordan-Hare), and probably at Tennessee. Another tough game will be at Ole Miss. The Rebels get a week of before and after their showdown with Tubs, and I think they are really tough at home on thier new Astroplay surface. In SEC play, AU goes 5-3 and (for better or worse) Tubs calls the Mayflower truck.

Alabama - Our beloved Tide finally has postseason hopes again, and that will make a phenomenal difference this year. A much easier schedule doesn't hurt either. The Tide does lose its best offensive weapon in Shaud Williams, and loses Justin Smiley and D. Alexander from an already thin line.
On the defensive side, the loss of Antwan Odom will hurt the pass rush from the front 4.
Ole Mis at BD and Arkansas at Fayetteville will help decide our conference outlook early, but both should be winable. Trips to Baton Rouge and Knoxville and visits from the resurgent Gamecocks of SC and the still talented Auburn Tigers may prove too much for this team however. With a little more coaching than time allowed last year, I think the Tide finishes up 4-4 in conference -- a vast improvement over last season's outcome.

Ole Miss - The Reb's are very talented at the skill positions and will have a very strong, well coached OL again. A new QB without the ability to stretch the field makes this a slightly more pedestrian offense, though.
The D loses a lot of talent, but make no mistake this is a very well coached unit and can still do the job.
The Rebels will pick up wins against Vandy, Arkansas, and Miss St., but could also play the spoiler role with Auburn and Tennessee traveling to Oxford. My prediction is 3-5, but they are definately the wild card in the West.

Miss St. - The Bulldogs will be well coached this year, but have an uphill battle. NCAA sanctions will likely come out early in the season, and that can't help but to distract this team.
Trips to Vanderbilt (returning 21 starters), LSU, AL and Ole Miss will be tough. Kentucky and Arkansas will serve as doormats to welcome this new regime and don't count State out of the bowl picture. I expect 2-6 in conference, but the new coaching staff will have the Dawgs ready to fight.

Arkansas - The Nutt boys better have some Aces up thier sleeves this year. The Pigs lose practically everyone except QB Matt Jones, who will need those magic feet to run for his life behind a decimated OL. Good luck guys, but don't expect any breaks in the SEC. 0-8.

Briefly, I think UGA wins the SEC at 8-0 and contends for a National Championship with a lot of returning talent. Florida and Charlie Strong's defense finish second (7-1) and could even suprise Georgia in Jacksonville. South Carolina will be tough this year and will knock off UT in Columbia to clinch third (6-2). UT finishes a disappointing 5-3 with losses at UGA, SC and against UF. Vandy will be improved but still be Vandy (1-6), and UK will suffer through a tough conference schedule (0-8)

I'd love to see some other opinions on the West or other teams.
Roll Tide!!
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No way Arkansas goes 0-8 in the SEC. MSU will be the cellar dweller in the SEC West. They are absolutely awful and Nutt and the Ark. program is in a whole lot better situation that Croom and the MSU team.
 
I don't want to nit pick your comments to death, but how is it possible that "Another tough game will be at Ole Miss. The Rebels get a week of before and after their showdown with Tubs, and I think they are really tough at home on thier new Astroplay surface." meaning that Ole Miss can beat Auburn and then you have us losing to Auburn yet beating Ole Miss?

Also, how in the world can you say that South Carolina is "resurgent" when they've had two losing seasons in a row and Lou's job is very much in jeapordy right now?

Anyway, I'm not arguing with your numbers, just your rationalization.

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The Bus to our future is driven by Coach Mike Shula...Get on board or be left behind!

--Me
 
I don't think Ole Miss is the wild card at all. They had 15 5th year seniors on that team last year and Eli. All gone. My opinions on Alabama's challenges this year notwithstanding, I would say we are the wild card team. In spite of all the odds we face will it really be a shocker if we beat say, ten or barn? It wouldn't surprise me... we are'nt anybody..you know..
 
<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by Alanbama27:
...meaning that Ole Miss can beat Auburn and then you have us losing to Auburn yet beating Ole Miss?

Also, how in the world can you say that South Carolina is "resurgent" when they've had two losing seasons in a row and Lou's job is very much in jeapordy right now?
</font>

I think with two weeks for nothing but Auburn preparation, the Ole Miss coaches will have their team ready. I also think the Ole Miss offense (great line and possibly a strong running game) matches up well with Auburn (possibly a weak front 7 and definitely inexperienced). Add that to the home field advantage and a crowd you know will be into the game and it seems to me you have a quite possible upset.

On SC, I know they have been down, but much like Ole Miss and Arkansas last year, they return a bunch of talented starters. I also realize Lou Holtz was embarrassed last year, which is all the more reason to expect him to come out fighting. He may be 95 years old, but he's still one of the best motivators in the history of college athletics.
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I certainly respect your opinion, but respectfully disagree! I don't care how many seniors a team is returning, those same guys couldn't win as juniors, so I don't see how one year is going to make that big of a difference. It's totally different when you're talking about Freshman to Sophomore's because that is normally a 3 year process with a redshirt included, but when you're talking junior to senior, it is only a true year.

Also, Ole Miss did have a fairly good running team last year, but the only reason it worked as well as it did was because the offensive fire power of Eli made the "D's" respect the pass first. That's all gone and teams "SHOULD" be able to tee off on the run first since they don't have a receiver or QB.

I guess we'll see soon enough and I only HOPE that my thoughts are a bit more accurate.

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The Bus to our future is driven by Coach Mike Shula...Get on board or be left behind!

--Me
 
<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by bamabake:
...I would say we are the wild card team. In spite of all the odds we face will it really be a shocker if we beat say, ten or barn? It wouldn't surprise me... we are'nt anybody..you know..</font>

I actually don't disagree with you at all. With a few good breaks we could certainly make some noise.

The linked artilce below says that most of the money on Bama in Las Vegas is on OVER 7 wins.

http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2004/Jul-12-Mon-2004/sports/24291930.html
 
hate to say it because it leaves Bama out, but the SEC West will be won on the 3rd week of play when LSU goes to the barn...the winner of that game wins the West...I'll be pulling for LSU, but I think the barn will win it...they have more talent that we realize, just ask 'em...
 
<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by BamaSkins:
hate to say it because it leaves Bama out, but the SEC West will be won on the 3rd week of play when LSU goes to the barn...the winner of that game wins the West...I'll be pulling for LSU, but I think the barn will win it...they have more talent that we realize, just ask 'em...</font>

LSU is loaded with the exception of naming a starter to replace Mauck(the talent is there-JRussell). This is tt were talking about here who is 30-34 against SEC opponents. He will find some way to screw this up and he'll be in Borges face by the 4th quarter trying to figure out how to pull it out
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RTR
 
I'm just wondering what Bamaskins has been smoking? The Barn won't even be in the hunt for the West much less the SEC.

I'm not predicting that Bama will win it, but we will have a better opportunity than the Barn to win it all this year because we don't have to play Florida or Georgia. The problem the barn has is that the overall SEC record plays a huge part in your ability to even win the west and the Barn WILL lose to LSU, FLORIDA, GEORGIA and will be in a true fight against TENNESSEE, OLE MISS and ALABAMA. They are dead meat IMHO!

As I've posted numerous times...don't forget that t-squared HAS NEVER won more than 9 games in any year or lost LESS than 4. That means that at best this year, they will go 8-4 and I'll lay 50-1 odds that all four of their losses are to SEC teams, meaning their out!

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The Bus to our future is driven by Coach Mike Shula...Get on board or be left behind!

--Me
 
Ouch!!! Good point on the barn's SEC schedule Alan. lsu, florida, tenn, BAMA, ga and fl. That is brutal!!!!!!!!

Mooooooooooooooooooove it on out barn. Somebody's gonna get taken out behind the shed (or maybe the barn) for some good old fashioned butt whoopins!!

Roll Tide Roll!!!!!!!!!!!
 
I think LSU and Auburn are definitely the frontrunners, with Ole Miss, AR, and MSU all looking up at the top two.

I think Bama's the wild card for sure. We still have some players on this team, even though depth is thin. Combine that with a favorable schedule and it's possible that the Tide can throw a wrench in it for either LSU or Auburn.

What we don't know yet is if last season was an abberation (are we really that down) or if the Tide is on its way to rising again.

I don't see Bama winning the West; but I do see us as having a chance to have a say in who does win it.

RTR
 
My thoughts......

I don't see Arkansas posing a serious threat, but you know how Nutt can motivate.

Ole Miss plays without their 4 year QB Manning. I don't think Spurlock will be enough.

As far as losing Odom bad. I wasn't that high on him as others were... or at least I expected more from him. I questioned his production and most on here claimed he was being double teamed. If that is true how do other DT's or DE's across the nation get higher sacks? I think he took off too many plays. I think Bates will fill the role nicely. Let Anderson, Harris, Gillberry, and Saunders fight for the other. Oh yeah and turner. ;)
 
BamaSkins said:
hate to say it because it leaves Bama out, but the SEC West will be won on the 3rd week of play when LSU goes to the barn...the winner of that game wins the West...I'll be pulling for LSU, but I think the barn will win it...they have more talent that we realize, just ask 'em...


Huh? Barn? your joking arent ya? Well arent ya?
 
Alanbama27 said:
I'm not predicting that Bama will win it, but we will have a better opportunity than the Barn to win it all this year because we don't have to play Florida or Georgia. The problem the barn has is that the overall SEC record plays a huge part in your ability to even win the west and the Barn WILL lose to LSU, FLORIDA, GEORGIA and will be in a true fight against TENNESSEE, OLE MISS and ALABAMA. They are dead meat IMHO!

Auburn doesn't play Florida this year (2004 Schedule). They play Kentucky at Jordan-Hare instead. They also get Arkansas at Jordan-Hare with La Tech as a warm up the week before. They travel to Knoxville on the 2nd of October with Citadel as the warm up.

LSU comes to Jordan-Hare the 3rd week of the season with their new quarterback (whoever that may be) under center. Georgia comes to Jordan-Hare.

The schedule is about as favorable as it can be, with La Tech, La Monroe, and The Citadel providing pillow fights in the off weeks.

I'd say the original assumption was pretty good.
 
It seems every single person that knows SEC football seems to believe rKansas will just absolutely tank this season. I'm sorry, but as long as they have Matt Jones at qb and Houston Nutt as their coach these guys are going to be seriously competetive, even with only a few returning starters. Don't be surprised if somehow they manage to win 6 or so games this season.

Another team that is seriously going to surprise this season is Ole Miss. They return by far the best offensive line in the SEC, and when you have undeniably the best offensive line you are going to make some noise. They will be able to run the football extremely well this season and they have a senior qb starting.

And, I know they aren't in the SEC west, but Kentucky is yet another team EVERYONE is sleeping on. They return 8 starters from a defense that was extremely improved last season as well as a dangerous, mobile qb in Shane Boyd.

I mention these three teams because these are our three of our first four SEC opponents, and we play two of these teams on the road. We absolutely have to play B+ or A games in all three of these contests to come out victorious. On paper we would seem to have the advantage against Ole Miss being at home and having them early in the season, but again, we're only 5-7 at home against SEC opponents the past three seasons. On the other hand though, we've won 12 consecutive SEC openers and Ole Miss has struggled mightily against us at home over the past few seasons.
 
BamaBacker said:
I also realize Lou Holtz was embarrassed last year, which is all the more reason to expect him to come out fighting. He may be 95 years old, but he's still one of the best motivators in the history of college athletics.
biga.gif

If you look at the history of Lou Holtz at his various stops through collegiate coaching ranks, he has a history of burning out his Assistants and staff by the 4th of 5th year. He comes in a-blazin' with loads of energy and ideas, but eventually his personality wears thin, and his teams drift off to 4-8, 5-7. This even happened at the Golden Dome. What might be the difference though is whether he has turned things over to Skip. I assume he is still there. We'll see.
 
NashvilleTider said:
What might be the difference though is whether he has turned things over to Skip. I assume he is still there. We'll see.

Skip Holtz is still at SC, but Lou is supposedly taking the play calling duties this year. If that happens there will be more run.

I think Skip was demoted to QB coach.
 

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