Since this is a subject that comes up a lot, and I lived in Nebraska recently I thought I would give my insight on it.
I know a lot here think Nebraska will rise again, and the missing ingredient was to hire the right coach. I can agree partially on that assessment, but not fully. I believe it would take a coach with staying power from day 1 at the caliber of Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, and Bob Stoops who would earn patience the moment they sign on the dotted line, but it would still be a long, long, long process. I just don't believe Scott Frost is 1. Here are some things that I think will prevent Scott Frost from winning at Nebraska. I tend to like this excerpt:
a- The State of Nebraska- This isn't new but I don't think many realize how bad it is. 85% of the state lives in a 45 minute radius of each other. Lets look at the past state champs from 2010-17 Ill mark all non in the 45 minutes participants in bold:
Here is a recruiting excerpt describing the top 5 recruits in Nebraska that still holds true today:
B- Going to the BIG 10 was the worst thing for recruiting- I was in contact with many in the know, boosters, and folks inside the program through dates, friends, and other things. One thing they all told be is when it was becoming a reality that Nebraska was heading to the BIG 10 was Pelini was flipping out. They said Pelini was making calls to Missouri, Oklahoma, Colorado, and aTm in an attempt to try to go to the SEC or Pac 10 as a joint deal. He feared what eventually came to fruition in that Nebraska was going to lose their label of being an alternate destination for recruits from Oklahoma, Missouri, and Texas, and that the Huskers faithful would be expected them to roll the BIG West and be in direct competition with tOSU and Michigan every year. The problem is that recruits in Oklahoma, Texas, and Missouri that don't go to their state universities, and don't want to play for their direct rivals want to play close to and have games in their home states. Missouri to the SEC and Colorado to the PAC 12 sealed Nebraska's fate because it severed 4 pipeline states and forced Nebraska to be in direct competition with Iowa. It also made both of those schools better destinations for mid tier recruits because playing USC, UCLA, UGA, and UF every year has more exposure than playing Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin every year. basically you are selling an one horse town with a college in it with a 45 minute trip Omaha to national recuits.
2) Infrastructure- This has three parts
A) the fan part- The amount of access the average fan in Omaha and Lincoln have to the program is ridiculous. I have heard and seen times of folks going into facilities and coach's offices just because their cousin knows a guy. Here at Alabama everything is lock and key, we only see things Nick Saban wants or allows us to see. Frost is going to have to change the culture of Nebraska to have a chance at Nebraska. They also believe they are still capable of being the team they were in the 90's in the BIG 10 W. If Rielly and Pelini couldn't do it then I fear Frost wont do much better
B) the cultural part: Pelini, from what Ive been told, said that he believed that he could run wild in the BIG 10 side that he was on for two or three years with his MO and TX recruits, but once they dry up then he would have a tough time adjusting Nebraska to the style of football that Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa has been playing for years. He believed while he would've taken his lumps in the SEC and PAC 10, he believed that fans would temper their expectations, and allow time to adjust with some of the same and some new valuable recruiting pipelines. Even if he didn't say it, it makes perfect sense given that we are talking about 2010-2014 at the height of SEC dominance.
C) geographic infrastructure- While many are quick to say Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa are recruit poor and not elite programs, they are far better than Nebraska and have better numbers to pull from within state to produce depth.
Top 5 municipalities in those states
Point is these schools have a lot of instate recruits to pull from compared to Nebraska. Also consider you have to sell Lincoln to recruits which is basically a small town with a college over Madison ( The party capital in USA), Milwaukee (and Chicago for that matter), Green Bay, Minneapolis, Des Moines, Iowa City, and D- Buek.
3) Conclusion
I think Frost is fighting a crazy uphill battle in a very delusional environment. Unless he just totally knocks it out of the park in national recruiting then I think he is DOA. This year I project 3-9 (assuming he beats troy) at best 5-7 (beating Troy, Minnie, and Colorado). Looking 4 years in advance I honestly don't see a winning season because he is drawing 2 of Michigan, MSU, PSU, and tOSU the next 4 years added with Oklahoma in 2021 and 22.
Here are some good articles. Sorry for the Selma length of post.
https://www.outkickthecoverage.com/nebraska-is-no-longer-an-elite-job-120114/
https://athlonsports.com/college-fo...st-its-sense-entitlement-and-thats-good-thing
I know a lot here think Nebraska will rise again, and the missing ingredient was to hire the right coach. I can agree partially on that assessment, but not fully. I believe it would take a coach with staying power from day 1 at the caliber of Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, and Bob Stoops who would earn patience the moment they sign on the dotted line, but it would still be a long, long, long process. I just don't believe Scott Frost is 1. Here are some things that I think will prevent Scott Frost from winning at Nebraska. I tend to like this excerpt:
1) Recruiting: This is harped on a lot and it has been proven true all too often.
a- The State of Nebraska- This isn't new but I don't think many realize how bad it is. 85% of the state lives in a 45 minute radius of each other. Lets look at the past state champs from 2010-17 Ill mark all non in the 45 minutes participants in bold:
That's 32 games. 59% are East teams matched up together within a 45 minute radius. Only 1/3 of the games have a west representative. Most west and center Nebraska highschools participate in 8 and 6 men football leagues. This shows where the population is, and why the 93 county free athletic scholarship policy that Tom Osbourne enjoyed was a huge advantage that let him win in the 80's and 90's, but he wouldn't win today.
Here is a recruiting excerpt describing the top 5 recruits in Nebraska that still holds true today:
Any coach could recruit the 25 from Mobile, Birmingham, Auburn (High schools), or Huntsville and pound the top 25 Nebraska recruits statewide without breaking so much as a sweat. Yes You Need Nebraska players to win at Nebraska to build established depth, but you cant win with Nebraska recruits.
B- Going to the BIG 10 was the worst thing for recruiting- I was in contact with many in the know, boosters, and folks inside the program through dates, friends, and other things. One thing they all told be is when it was becoming a reality that Nebraska was heading to the BIG 10 was Pelini was flipping out. They said Pelini was making calls to Missouri, Oklahoma, Colorado, and aTm in an attempt to try to go to the SEC or Pac 10 as a joint deal. He feared what eventually came to fruition in that Nebraska was going to lose their label of being an alternate destination for recruits from Oklahoma, Missouri, and Texas, and that the Huskers faithful would be expected them to roll the BIG West and be in direct competition with tOSU and Michigan every year. The problem is that recruits in Oklahoma, Texas, and Missouri that don't go to their state universities, and don't want to play for their direct rivals want to play close to and have games in their home states. Missouri to the SEC and Colorado to the PAC 12 sealed Nebraska's fate because it severed 4 pipeline states and forced Nebraska to be in direct competition with Iowa. It also made both of those schools better destinations for mid tier recruits because playing USC, UCLA, UGA, and UF every year has more exposure than playing Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin every year. basically you are selling an one horse town with a college in it with a 45 minute trip Omaha to national recuits.
2) Infrastructure- This has three parts
A) the fan part- The amount of access the average fan in Omaha and Lincoln have to the program is ridiculous. I have heard and seen times of folks going into facilities and coach's offices just because their cousin knows a guy. Here at Alabama everything is lock and key, we only see things Nick Saban wants or allows us to see. Frost is going to have to change the culture of Nebraska to have a chance at Nebraska. They also believe they are still capable of being the team they were in the 90's in the BIG 10 W. If Rielly and Pelini couldn't do it then I fear Frost wont do much better
B) the cultural part: Pelini, from what Ive been told, said that he believed that he could run wild in the BIG 10 side that he was on for two or three years with his MO and TX recruits, but once they dry up then he would have a tough time adjusting Nebraska to the style of football that Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa has been playing for years. He believed while he would've taken his lumps in the SEC and PAC 10, he believed that fans would temper their expectations, and allow time to adjust with some of the same and some new valuable recruiting pipelines. Even if he didn't say it, it makes perfect sense given that we are talking about 2010-2014 at the height of SEC dominance.
C) geographic infrastructure- While many are quick to say Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa are recruit poor and not elite programs, they are far better than Nebraska and have better numbers to pull from within state to produce depth.
Top 5 municipalities in those states
1 Omaha 446,970 408,958 +9.29% Douglas 7000200000000000000 2
Lincoln 280,364 258,379 +8.51% Lancaster 7000300000000000000 Bellevue 53,505 50,137 +6.72% Sarpy 7000400000000000000 Grand Island 51,517 48,520 +6.18% Hall 7000500000000000000 Kearney 33,520 30,787
Keep in mind Bellevue is a military population so there is a constant revolving door
Wisconsin
Rank Municipality Population
(2010 Census)Population
(2000 Census)Type County 1 Milwaukee 594,833 596,974 City Milwaukee 2 Madison 233,209 208,054 City Dane 3 Green Bay 104,057 102,313 City Brown 4 Kenosha 99,218 90,352 City Kenosha 5 Racine 78,860 81,855 City Racine
You would have to go to #12 to have less than Nebraska's #3
Iowa
City 2017 city population[SUP][81][/SUP] 2010 city population[SUP][82][/SUP] Change Metropolitan Statistical Area 2016 metro population 2010 metro population 2016 metro change 1 Des Moines 217,521 203,433 +6.93% Des Moines–West Des Moines 634,725 569,633 +11.43% 2 Cedar Rapids 132,228 126,326 +4.67% Cedar Rapids 267,799 257,940 +3.82% 3 Davenport 102,320 99,685 +2.64% Quad Cities 386,630 379,090 +1.99% 4 Sioux City 82,514 82,684 3000794397948817180 Sioux City 168,806 168,563 +0.14% 5 Iowa City 75,798 67,862 +11.69% Iowa City
Again you would have to go to #12
Minnesota
You would have to go to #18 to have less than Nebraska's #3
Minnesota Cities by Population Rank City Population 1 Minneapolis 422,331 2 St. Paul 306,621 3 Rochester 115,733 4 Duluth 86,066 5 Bloomington 85,866
Just for fun Alabama
Birmingham city 212,237 Montgomery city 205,764 Mobile city 195,111 Huntsville city 180,105 Tuscaloosa city 90,468
You would have to go to #9 to tie with Auburn
Point is these schools have a lot of instate recruits to pull from compared to Nebraska. Also consider you have to sell Lincoln to recruits which is basically a small town with a college over Madison ( The party capital in USA), Milwaukee (and Chicago for that matter), Green Bay, Minneapolis, Des Moines, Iowa City, and D- Buek.
3) Conclusion
I think Frost is fighting a crazy uphill battle in a very delusional environment. Unless he just totally knocks it out of the park in national recruiting then I think he is DOA. This year I project 3-9 (assuming he beats troy) at best 5-7 (beating Troy, Minnie, and Colorado). Looking 4 years in advance I honestly don't see a winning season because he is drawing 2 of Michigan, MSU, PSU, and tOSU the next 4 years added with Oklahoma in 2021 and 22.
Here are some good articles. Sorry for the Selma length of post.
https://www.outkickthecoverage.com/nebraska-is-no-longer-an-elite-job-120114/
https://athlonsports.com/college-fo...st-its-sense-entitlement-and-thats-good-thing
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