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News Article: Why Bama won't 3-peat

ALA2262 said:
The Ole Miss thingy proves that he is aware of what you pointed out. And that is everyone else's losses in personnel. Ole Miss is actually his best hope of being right. Ole Miss lost the fewest personnel. Ole Miss returns 18 starters.
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The same defense we scored 33 on? The same offense that managed 14 points and gave up 3 turnovers to us?

Personally, more kids from the same starting groups from last year just increases my confidence in beating Ole Miss. ;)
 
What he is saying qualitatively is really an example of Bayesian statistics. If you had to bet on an outcome, the best bet is 1 loss, you just don't know which game that will be. If you look at the chance of winning each individual game, there are a bunch of 99%, and (say) 60% vs aTm and about the same for LSU and (say) 90% for Ole Miss, Auburn etc. When you combine all the loss chances, you get 30% chance of winning out, 50% for 1 loss, 15% for 2 losses, and 5% a total meltdown.

Even so, 1 loss is not debarring. Every other team labors under the same mathematics, which is how come a 1-loss Alabama won the last two championships.
 
skrayper77 said:
The same defense we scored 33 on? The same offense that managed 14 points and gave up 3 turnovers to us?

Personally, more kids from the same starting groups from last year just increases my confidence in beating Ole Miss. ;)
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If Bama was returning 18 starters then your assessment would be correct.
 
Another point in the article is incorrect. He stated that we are losing all three starters on the defensive line. That is not true, Ed Stinson started at DE and he will be back. We are losing two starters on the D line. Are we losing some good players on D, yes but technically only 4 starters, Lester, Milliner, Williams, and Square. We return 7, CJ, Depriest, Dickson. Hubbard, Stinson, Belue, and Ha-Ha. We did lose Nico and he was valuable but CJ was more of the starter. In 2011, we lost 7 starters including 3 of the best defensive players we have ever had, Upshaw, Hightower, and Barron. We saw how that worked out!!! Thoughts?
 
If we lose a game or two, it almost certainly will be because of the offense (specifically the OL), not the defense. I watched the A&M game again recently, and AJ overthrew at least 2 certain TDs. The offense had many 3 and outs putting the defense under pressure as well.
 
Andy said:
Another point in the article is incorrect. He stated that we are losing all three starters on the defensive line. That is not true, Ed Stinson started at DE and he will be back. We are losing two starters on the D line. Are we losing some good players on D, yes but technically only 4 starters, Lester, Milliner, Williams, and Square. We return 7, CJ, Depriest, Dickson. Hubbard, Stinson, Belue, and Ha-Ha. We did lose Nico and he was valuable but CJ was more of the starter. In 2011, we lost 7 starters including 3 of the best defensive players we have ever had, Upshaw, Hightower, and Barron. We saw how that worked out!!! Thoughts?
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To my knowledge. Phil Steele is the only source for this information. IMO, his chart for 'Returning Starters' leaves a lot to be desired. What would be desired is career starts for each unit listed. As he does in a separate chart for the OL. He could then eliminate the OL chart.

Edit: Just e-mailed this to him.

Have you considered using career starts per unit as done with the separate OL chart? Making the chart interactive whereby the user could bring up each unit separately would enable you to eliminate the separate OL chart.
 
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I agree, Andy, and I think analysts underestimate how much quality playing time the backups get. Quality time applies not only to practice - where players on both sides of the ball get to play against some of the best in the game - but actual gameday time. Most commentators dismiss 4Q romps as junk time, but Saban's ferocious pursuit of perfection means that EVERY snap is as important as any other, and explains why you are just as likely to see him in a purple rage in a blowout.
 
DrollTide said:
I agree, Andy, and I think analysts underestimate how much quality playing time the backups get. Quality time applies not only to practice - where players on both sides of the ball get to play against some of the best in the game - but actual gameday time. Most commentators dismiss 4Q romps as junk time, but Saban's ferocious pursuit of perfection means that EVERY snap is as important as any other, and explains why you are just as likely to see him in a purple rage in a blowout.
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Which we have indeed seen in many past games. He does not relax just because we may be ahead by 4 TD's. It's his relentless intensity that helps each and every player improve himself in each and every play. That's the process. One play at a time, one game at a time.
 
I'm taking bets this same clown will put up a thread just hours before the opener against Va Tech saying "why Alabama will three-peat." Then when the season is over, he'll take down the wrong one and go tell both of his friends he was right and has the proof.
 
TIDE-HSV said:
Almost every team has a huge dropoff between #1 and #2 QB. However, we won a NC with a QB who couldn't throw because of injury...
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I'll make two points on this, and I concur with you:

1) Let's not forget that CNS won an SEC title in 2001 when his starting QB was injured a game where his team was already trailing, 17-7. It's not like this never happened to CNS before.

2) In 1999 and 2000, we had virtually no gap between 1 and 2 (Zow and Watts, Watts and Zow, I don't care) - and the results were near disastrous.

I'd rather have an excellent QB and take my chances than enter the season not knowing whether 1 or 2 was better.
 
Bama Reb said:
Which we have indeed seen in many past games. He does not relax just because we may be ahead by 4 TD's. It's his relentless intensity that helps each and every player improve himself in each and every play. That's the process. One play at a time, one game at a time.
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Yeah, he popped AJ on the rump after a horrific pick against MSU in 2010 - and boy, it sure ruined that McCarron kid :)
 
I will just say AJ is our QB & I'm glad, he is already one of the best I have ever seen at Alabama, my view only no stats to back it up.

But, I am not sure Sims will be #2 this year & even if he is how is to say we have a huge drop off, now I don't think any are as good as AJ but we just don't know how they are progressing with Coach Nuss who I think is the key to QB development. Although not always cripst Morris shows signs of growth, Sims has worked on his passing & is much improved from what I saw at A-Day.

We are definitely have a stronger stable of Healthy Backs (right now) & I see Howard making history as a TE.

You just gotta look for something wrong with this team top to bottom, I think this bunch is scary talented.
 
If you made me pick the field or Bama I would take the field. If you asked me the one team that has the best shot it is Bama. Just like every other year it is up to THIS team to prove everybody wrong. I will say one game I do not believe we will lose will be @ A&M. I hope they are at full strength and they have no excuses, when we go in there finish some unfinished business.
 
This thread prompted me to examine the schedule and peer into my crystal ball. Everyone is looking at the A&M & Ole Miss games as possible losses. A&M is a tossup for a variety of reasons. However, Saban teams usually come roaring out of the gate in September. The team will be fresh, hungry and motivated. Ole Miss is... Ole Miss. I think Alabama wins both the revenge game against A&M and the SEC home opener against the Rebels.

Our vulnerabilities are more likely to appear down the stretch, after the physical & emotional grind of the season has taken its toll. So the surprise game may end up being... Mississippi State! It's a mid-November SEC battle away from home, the week after the annual slugfest against LSU. Mullen is an experienced coach entering his 5th season at State. Sure, it would be a huge upset - but the same was true in 1980.
 
TIDE24 said:
If you made me pick the field or Bama I would take the field. If you asked me the one team that has the best shot it is Bama. Just like every other year it is up to THIS team to prove everybody wrong. I will say one game I do not believe we will lose will be @ A&M. I hope they are at full strength and they have no excuses, when we go in there finish some unfinished business.
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I would take the field as well, however if you break it down just a little bit? I would take Alabama over all the other SEC teams combined. I would take Alabama over the entire Big 10, etc...

If Alabama gets past A&M undefeated, at that point I would pick Alabama over the field. I think injuries will always be a wildcard though, and all it takes is one key injury to radically change things.
 
It's always funny to watch talking heads spin a story. The ball bounces both ways, but when the ball bounced (several times) TAMU's way, or Georgia's way, it's because we're over-rated and they're under-rated. When it bounces our way, it always seems to be either because we're lucky or some evil conspiracy.
 
The "clueless, bias, doubting sports writers who will be proven wrong" count now sits at 1.

nah, I think he has some valid points. I just wanted to say that. :D
 
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