Tide Fans - Great board you guys have here. Been reading it for a few weeks now and decided to sign up to chatter about the game. Most reasonable Trojan fans are under no delusions about winning this game. Bama's got the experience, the talent and most of all the coaching that USC doesn't have. I would only give USC a 10% shot at winning. That being said, what have opponents done over the past few years that have kept games close? I've watched Bama a few times but don't know enough to provide an educated response. Thanks in advance for your replies. Hope to see y'all in Dallas. Fight on!
USC / Bama game question
- Thread starter PepsiTrojan
- Start date
Welcome, PepsiTrojan. I hope you find our forum a nice place to visit. We're pretty steel-fisted regarding our rules of posting, so be sure to keep those in mind.
As for the game, I think it will be close, and wouldn't be surprised to find it decided in the 4th quarter. We have loads of talent, but we're breaking in a new QB and all-new backfield, something we've not had to do since Saban arrived, so it will likely take time for those elements to gel. USC also has boatloads of talent, so i expect a real battle and absolutely am not assuming a win.
Where teams have been most effective against Bama, outside of miraculously lucky plays here and there, have been when they had a fantastic QB that could put the ball in tight spaces and attacked there middle of the field with WRs - our LBs are good, but they aren't going to be able to cover many WRs 10 yards off the line. The middle of the secondary is probably the biggest weakness in Saban's secondary, and we've seen more teams exploit that in the last few years as our secondary hasn't been as good as we'd like. I do think this year's secondary could be very good- we've got amazing athletes with experience back there now.
That said, the defense should be extraordinary this year. On paper, it could be one of our best ever, but they play the games on the field for a reason.
Offensively, once we get our legs under us, we should be a force. Probably the best receiver corps we've ever had (arguably the best in the nation) an d three talented QBs battling to start behind what should be an improved OL. The two assumed primary RBs both showed flashes last year, but neither of them ever got enough snaps to really dial it in.
On paper, we probably have the most talented team i the country and we definitely have good coaches on the sidelines, but it takes time to assemble those into a 'team', and playing a team as talented as USC is (especially with the lack of respect I suspect they'll get from the media leading up to the game) with this particular Bama team makes me nervous.
Hope we absolutely STOMP USC, but doubt it.
Can you tell us more about your squad?
As for the game, I think it will be close, and wouldn't be surprised to find it decided in the 4th quarter. We have loads of talent, but we're breaking in a new QB and all-new backfield, something we've not had to do since Saban arrived, so it will likely take time for those elements to gel. USC also has boatloads of talent, so i expect a real battle and absolutely am not assuming a win.
Where teams have been most effective against Bama, outside of miraculously lucky plays here and there, have been when they had a fantastic QB that could put the ball in tight spaces and attacked there middle of the field with WRs - our LBs are good, but they aren't going to be able to cover many WRs 10 yards off the line. The middle of the secondary is probably the biggest weakness in Saban's secondary, and we've seen more teams exploit that in the last few years as our secondary hasn't been as good as we'd like. I do think this year's secondary could be very good- we've got amazing athletes with experience back there now.
That said, the defense should be extraordinary this year. On paper, it could be one of our best ever, but they play the games on the field for a reason.
Offensively, once we get our legs under us, we should be a force. Probably the best receiver corps we've ever had (arguably the best in the nation) an d three talented QBs battling to start behind what should be an improved OL. The two assumed primary RBs both showed flashes last year, but neither of them ever got enough snaps to really dial it in.
On paper, we probably have the most talented team i the country and we definitely have good coaches on the sidelines, but it takes time to assemble those into a 'team', and playing a team as talented as USC is (especially with the lack of respect I suspect they'll get from the media leading up to the game) with this particular Bama team makes me nervous.
Hope we absolutely STOMP USC, but doubt it.
Can you tell us more about your squad?
Welcome!
I'd say it's more like 50%:wink:
Since coach Saban really got it rolling in 2008, the losses/closest games have been against teams with comparable talent. Our staff really develops our players and gets a lot out of them and schemes well also, so teams with noticeably less talent typically don't hang around long in the game.
Talented teams with multi-talented QBs can hang with us. The run-pass threat in a QB hurts any defense, ours included. A few losses have been when the opposing QB plays the game of his life and has lots of passing yards and some positive rushing yards.
On the other hand, sometimes we will really handle a super talented team, if scheme-wise, they really only specialize in one thing. We will typically do a good job of neutralizing something that you want to do and making you do something else. If you only can do one thing it makes for a long day at the ballpark.:cool2:
I'd say it's more like 50%:wink:
Since coach Saban really got it rolling in 2008, the losses/closest games have been against teams with comparable talent. Our staff really develops our players and gets a lot out of them and schemes well also, so teams with noticeably less talent typically don't hang around long in the game.
Talented teams with multi-talented QBs can hang with us. The run-pass threat in a QB hurts any defense, ours included. A few losses have been when the opposing QB plays the game of his life and has lots of passing yards and some positive rushing yards.
On the other hand, sometimes we will really handle a super talented team, if scheme-wise, they really only specialize in one thing. We will typically do a good job of neutralizing something that you want to do and making you do something else. If you only can do one thing it makes for a long day at the ballpark.:cool2:
Of the games we've lost or that have been close over the past few seasons, there have been a few common themes among the opponents and/or games of which each game seemed to have at least a couple:
- Teams with near or equal overall talent as Bama, at least in the starting 22.
- A significant number of mistakes by Bama, especially turnovers.
- An inordinate amount of luck - lucky plays and/or referee friendliness - for the opposition.
- Really good opposing quarterback play, often from dual-threat QBs.
- Bad timing for Bama, e.g., having significant injuries, distractions, timing on the schedule, etc.
Unfortunately for you guys, the first and last don't really seem to fit for this game so you'll basically be relying on the middle three.
Seriously, though, while Bama should certainly win this game I don't think too many fans will be taking the game lightly and I'm more than certain that Coach Saban won't be doing so.
So painful to watch still! That could never happen again in 99 out of 100 more attempts.
Unfortunately for you guys, the first and last don't really seem to fit for this game so you'll basically be relying on the middle three.
Not so sure their starting 22 aren't within reach of our starting 22. USC doesn't have the depth we have, but it's USC - they have some crazy sick athletes.
Get turnovers and hope for missed FGs.
In the five games Alabama has lost since the 2012 season, Alabama has averaged 3 turnovers a game and 1.4 missed FGs per game. The one loss Alabama did not have a turnover was the 2013 Auburn game, where it had 4 missed FGs.
If you get turnovers or missed FGs, capitalize. Opponents have averaged 17.2 points off the turnovers and missed FGs in the five losses.
In the five games Alabama has lost since the 2012 season, Alabama has averaged 3 turnovers a game and 1.4 missed FGs per game. The one loss Alabama did not have a turnover was the 2013 Auburn game, where it had 4 missed FGs.
If you get turnovers or missed FGs, capitalize. Opponents have averaged 17.2 points off the turnovers and missed FGs in the five losses.
Thanks for the reply. I'll try to keep this concise:
Strengths:
- USC has excellent talent. Maybe not Alabama level but really strong.
- There are several guys that can take it to the house every time they touch the ball: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Adoree Jackson, Ronald Jones and Dominic Davis
- Clancy Pendergast is an outstanding DC. He took Cal from worst to first in total defense in one year. His USC defense in 2013 was the best we've had in 7 years. I expect the defense to improve significantly
- OL and Special Teams coaching should be A LOT better this year (not sure how they could be worse)
- Secondary is littered with 5* talent
- For the first time in 5 years, there is depth at almost every position with talented players
Weaknesses
- Offensively, this coaching staff does not have a clue what it wants to be. USC's offense is going to be abysmal to start the year
- USC is breaking in a brand new QB - see above
- USC's DL is talented but very inexperienced
- Overall this team is going to be heavy with sophomores that don't have a ton of experience
- Clay Helton: Love the guy personally but it's going to take him 3-4 years to figure out how to be a head coach. USC loves hiring head coaches with little experience.
I hope that helps.
I agree with this completely. It comes down to the ability of a team to take advantage of the middle of the field, and it requires very good QB play. The one exception has been LSU, and they just match up well in the trenches. If you can match up well with Alabama on the LOS you always have a chance, but few teams can.
JBama_in_PCOLA
TideFans Legend
Why can't all fans from other teams be like this. Must be this board. Welcome sir!
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Agree with this completely. And PepsiTrojan indicates USC has some depth this year. If USC's OL shows improved play, this should be a whale of a game, and the outcome could easily come down to coaching. I like our chances in that area, but with the emotion CLK will bring to the game (whether he admits it or not), I hope he isn't thrown off his normal game plan.
PepsiTrojan, nice to see you coming onto this board. I come from a USC family in California, but graduated from Alabama so it's Roll Tide from me. I do believe it'll be a close game regardless who wins. I feel like Alabama's depth and defense should carry the team through this first game. It's a shame that given the history between Alabama and USC that these two schools don't play more often. Hope you get to enjoy this board beyond the USC game.
Welcome Pepsitrojan !
I believe USC is undervalued. They are one of the top two talented teams (with LSU) that Bama will face this year. If Bama comes out a little flat, or if our QB situation doesn't develop like we hope...then USC has a real chance for an upset.
I believe USC is undervalued. They are one of the top two talented teams (with LSU) that Bama will face this year. If Bama comes out a little flat, or if our QB situation doesn't develop like we hope...then USC has a real chance for an upset.
Bama's opponents fumble a lot...throw interceptions about 50/50 with incomplete passes...3-and-outs...short punts...kick off out of bounds...be sure and get this to the USC staff quick...and you didn't get it here...
Welcome...hope you enjoy the read...
I have read where you have 10 returning starters on offense and was surprised to see you have this as your weakness. Point #2 under weaknesses may be why you stated this.
I have heard your DL is young, inexperienced and not a lot of depth (some from injury). This is a really bad situation when playing against Bama.
I am not overlooking USC. They are very talented and with it being a first game with a new QB anything can happen. I think it will be similar to the West Virginia game we had in 2014 and the game won't be decided until the 4th qtr. Good luck.
USC to me seems to be one of those teams that can have a few down years but will eventually get back to the top. I certainly believe your talent level is equal to ours at most positions. Coach Saban usually has our guys dialed in for the first game every year. Make no mistake about it, we respect your program and look for a hard fought game.
Welcome and good luck after our game!
Welcome and good luck after our game!
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