That's a pretty big undertaking in the middle of a war...
Russia invades Ukraine XV
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If find it peculiar, that a couple of weeks ago that all we were reading is how Ukraine was marauding the Russians. Killing them by the thousands. Now the wet season is approaching and a key Ukriane military officer stupidly or intentionally uses the word stalemate, a war breaks out in Israel, an alt-right Speaker is installed, now the whole dialogue is Ukraine can't win and a peace needs to be negotiated. A bunch of this seems too coordinated.
An just like we always do, we start backing out of supporting something. We have a well earned reputation not seeing something through to the win even when another country is willing to shed the blood. It's almost like we can't strive for too much peace in the world, otherwise we can't justify spending $1T annually on our military complex...
An just like we always do, we start backing out of supporting something. We have a well earned reputation not seeing something through to the win even when another country is willing to shed the blood. It's almost like we can't strive for too much peace in the world, otherwise we can't justify spending $1T annually on our military complex...
Can’t disagree here. A big part of the problem is that we tend not to firmly define what victory is. Or if we do, we re-visit and tweak that definition (IOW, move the goalposts) as time goes on.
For the life of me, I can’t understand why we haven’t given Ukraine everything we have short of WMDs and weapons that have technology affecting our own national security. Send export versions of those.
Would you rather have:
(1) Someone else bleed, using our castoff weaponry, and in the process attrit the capability of a world threat beyond the point where they can be that level of threat in the future, or….
(2) Have our guys bleed at some point in the future, using our own good stuff, dealing with a monster that we could have slain years back?
I’ll take Door #1.
I would much prefer Ukraine mop the floor with Vladimir Putin's head, but, at this point, I do not see a Ukrainian path to victory. I just do not know what concepts they are adopting (or might adopt), what resources they will devote to those concepts. What I do see is endless stalemate. While I will not mourn the continued loss of Russian troops in that stalemate, I would regret the continued loss fo Ukrainian life and especially the loss of American tax dollars. If we were running a $1T surplus and had $33T in banked federal revenues, I'd support Ukraine until the cows come home. Unfortunately, we are running a $1T deficit and hold $33T debt.
Just wanted to add, if Ukraine cannot articulate a "theory of victory," sending unlimited amounts of money is starting to look like spending good money after not-as-good-as-we-had-hoped.
(The money spent there thus far has been money well spent, whittling down Russian combat power.)
Going forward, unless the Ukrainians can lay out how they intend to win, then the Biden Administration has an obligation to the American taxpayers to slow way down on the donations. Spending just to prolong a stalemate should not be an option.
That has nothing to do with how a Ukrainian general might characterize it. Look at the front lines in May and now. The Ukrainians have advance what 10-15 km in a few sectors? Hundreds of meters elsewhere? In six months? Explain to me how this will result in Ukrainian victory.
(The money spent there thus far has been money well spent, whittling down Russian combat power.)
Going forward, unless the Ukrainians can lay out how they intend to win, then the Biden Administration has an obligation to the American taxpayers to slow way down on the donations. Spending just to prolong a stalemate should not be an option.
That has nothing to do with how a Ukrainian general might characterize it. Look at the front lines in May and now. The Ukrainians have advance what 10-15 km in a few sectors? Hundreds of meters elsewhere? In six months? Explain to me how this will result in Ukrainian victory.
Here is a Don Hill comment. I'm only posting his #2, because the first was exactly just that, minutiae about tiny attacks and counter attacks around Adviika. This one deals with broader issues...
Hill II
Im not which "s" word it was you used prior but i think a change strategy is needed piercing through a rapid offensive. I think the front recognizes inflicting blunt force trauma into perpetuity will not work. They dont have the manpower to win this game when Russia will sacrifice its every man as cannon fodder. They are already trying conscript prisoners from satellite countries...
Americans want to see offense...
Americans want to see offense...
I agree, but the word I am hearing is that orchestrating the combined arms effort to pierce the front is beyond the tactical abilities of the Ukrainian army. (US advisers fiercely wanted the Ukrainians to do this). The Ukrainian army has infantry, artillery, armor, etc. but they do not have the staff and command ability to synchronize and orchestrate those, so they default to small infantry company-sized attacks, this means glacial advances into Russian-held territory.
But are we asking too much without adequate air support? I don't think a NATO country would/could succeed without it...
Just a modicum of air support for Ukraine could change the balance of this war. If the orchestration is lacking can NATO members not supply or train on the development of battle plans?
I can see staying with this approach for a while longer if a pentrating offensive is being developed to follow. Obviously, a weakened Russia in supply, artillery, and infantry make a penetrating offensive much more manageable.
I can see staying with this approach for a while longer if a pentrating offensive is being developed to follow. Obviously, a weakened Russia in supply, artillery, and infantry make a penetrating offensive much more manageable.
It couldn't hurt.
This kind of thing really is bound up in national culture, the size and composition of the armed forces, etc. No outside power can write an operations plan for Ukraine, because Ukrainians have to execute it. If some outside power were to write a plan inconsistent with national-cultural norms, it would fall flat on its face.
I would bet we do continue the approach, but as a military planner, I do not see this approach working. It is not on the verge of succeeding. It is just making glacial (and costly) progress.
"More manageable" is another way of saying "less impossible." It still does not mean "likely."
Russia got kicked in the Jimmy in February-April 2022. They got caught without adequate resources at the tip of the spear. They had sanctions placed on them.
Over time, those two conditions are less true. Russia has ramped up production of weapons and ammo. Russia has found a way to circumvent sanctions (by selling to other countries. Oil and gas are very fungible commodities. You sell to India, India buys less from Saudi Arabia. Global supply and demand stays relatively stable, who is consuming whose oil & gas has changed slightly.
This is why I believe the summer of 2023 was Ukraine's best shot at winning by punching through and isolating Novorossiya from Rostov. That opportunity has now effectively closed. The fighting and the dying will continue, but if I was a gambling man, I'd bet on Russian holding onto generally what it now has.
And ethnicity rears its ugly head, as it does from time to time in eastern Europe.
Poland claims Ukraine "can only dream" about EU accession without agreements on exhumation
The OUN massacred tens of thousands of Polish peasants in Vohynia and Eastern Galicia in 1943, to shape the environment for the post-war settlement of the region. In the interwar years, Lvov was in Poland. It is now in Ukraine.
Poland claims Ukraine "can only dream" about EU accession without agreements on exhumation
The OUN massacred tens of thousands of Polish peasants in Vohynia and Eastern Galicia in 1943, to shape the environment for the post-war settlement of the region. In the interwar years, Lvov was in Poland. It is now in Ukraine.
I'm not a pilot, though I'm interested in flying.
That said, I've heard (and asked) for more air support for Ukraine basically since the war started. I've read where it can take months for a tank crew to learn a new tank and operate smoothly and effectively as a team. Wouldn't training pilots to fly aircraft they've never flown before be significantly more difficult? I mean, sure, an experienced Ukrainian pilot could likely learn to operate the machine at a basic level in a relatively short amount of time, but the margin for error and knowing the capabilities and weaknesses of each airframe are critical for peak performance.
So unless someone is giving them soviet era fighters I'm not sure this is a really viable solution (again, I'm relatively ignorant wrt flying a jet).
The only other way you get foreign (such as US-made) air power into the skies over Ukraine likely requires foreign pilots who are well-trained in those jets, and I don't see anyone wanting to get into a direct hot-conflict with Russia.
No sarcasm, please show me where I'm wrong.
That said, I've heard (and asked) for more air support for Ukraine basically since the war started. I've read where it can take months for a tank crew to learn a new tank and operate smoothly and effectively as a team. Wouldn't training pilots to fly aircraft they've never flown before be significantly more difficult? I mean, sure, an experienced Ukrainian pilot could likely learn to operate the machine at a basic level in a relatively short amount of time, but the margin for error and knowing the capabilities and weaknesses of each airframe are critical for peak performance.
So unless someone is giving them soviet era fighters I'm not sure this is a really viable solution (again, I'm relatively ignorant wrt flying a jet).
The only other way you get foreign (such as US-made) air power into the skies over Ukraine likely requires foreign pilots who are well-trained in those jets, and I don't see anyone wanting to get into a direct hot-conflict with Russia.
No sarcasm, please show me where I'm wrong.
:quality(70)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/archetype/ZFRKMEECHRCBVP7YBQVYTOPVII.jpeg)
Ukrainian pilots begin F-16 training in Arizona
The F-16 fundamentals training course is expected to last several months, an Air Force spokesperson said.
www.airforcetimes.com
Ukrainian military pilots have begun learning to fly the F-16 Fighting Falcon jet in Arizona, the U.S. Air Force confirmed Wednesday.
A “small number†of Ukrainians started training at Morris Air National Guard Base in Tucson this week, Air Force spokesperson Rose Riley said in an emailed statement. Morris is home to the 162nd Wing of the Arizona National Guard, an F-16 pilot training hub that hosts international students.
“The training curriculum will align with the foundational knowledge and skills of each pilot and is expected to last several months,†Riley said.
_____
It usually takes a current pilot 5 hours +/- to train on a new general aviation plane for proficiency and to make insurance carriers happy.
It obviously takes longer the more complicated the plane is, and commercial planes take much longer than most GA aircraft because they are generally much more complicated. (this depends - a PC-12 takes more than a week of training according to Pilatus)
Add in weapons systems and all the rest in military jets and add even more time.
The training starts on the ground and is reinforced with flying time.
You likely already know this, but I'm making conversation.
So, for those wondering why the West have not been more forceful in rendering aid. (This is an old article, by the way)
KINGDOM OF DUST Putin could be killed & Russia may break up into nuke-armed mini-states in Balkans-esque bloodbath, says ex-CIA analyst
This may not be likely, but the consequences might be quite serious.
I learned that the area just south of Stalingrad is a Buddhist-majority republic (Kalmykia). Who knew?
KINGDOM OF DUST Putin could be killed & Russia may break up into nuke-armed mini-states in Balkans-esque bloodbath, says ex-CIA analyst
This may not be likely, but the consequences might be quite serious.
I learned that the area just south of Stalingrad is a Buddhist-majority republic (Kalmykia). Who knew?
And there's this one.
How far should US intelligence go in supporting Russia’s armed opposition?
For the record, Putin already believes the US is supporting resistance inside Russia. The drawback of Russia's policy of drafting heavily in non-Russian regions (to avoid ticking off the ethnic Russians) is that it means lots of non-Russians will be coming back to the non-Russian republics knowing how to fight and potentially radicalized by their time at the front.
How far should US intelligence go in supporting Russia’s armed opposition?
For the record, Putin already believes the US is supporting resistance inside Russia. The drawback of Russia's policy of drafting heavily in non-Russian regions (to avoid ticking off the ethnic Russians) is that it means lots of non-Russians will be coming back to the non-Russian republics knowing how to fight and potentially radicalized by their time at the front.
Unintended benefits?
I dunno, the ME seemed a bit more stable with Hussein in power - I worry that a vacuum of power that yields the balkanization of russia (with nukes) is definitely not the answer we're looking for here.
Here is the map for those who did not click the link.
How many of those would inherit nukes? Not sure.
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