Playoff Predictor scenarios

[selmaborntidefan]

I'm curious what it would look like if we beat Georgia.

I couldn't see us jumping all the way to #2 (thinking about the actual BCS era), but could we jump into the top 4?

If not, then 🤷‍♂️

Well, in the BCS it's POSSIBLE. LSU shot from #7 to #2 when they beat Tennessee in 2007.

 

[TideEngineer08]

And that is what they are hoping for…no explanations. As I mentioned in another thread, Alabama beating UGA and the others holding serve would be the nightmare scenario for Sankey and the SEC.

There is a part of me that hopes this does happen.

 

[RammerJammer14]

Iowa couldn't score with a $5 escort if they had $20.

Hey now. Thats only because they used $18 for their monthly Farmers Only subscription.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

Iowa couldn't score with a $5 escort if they had $20.

"Country boys and girls getting down on the farm!"

 

[selmaborntidefan]

There is a part of me that hopes this does happen.

It will be less painful for us psychologically.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

It seems to me we would have been better off losing to say, Tennessee, than to have lost to Texas.

Same thing was true in 2011.

One of the pundits taking up our case for us said, "There's a problem with a system that says it would have been better for Alabama to lose to Mississippi State straight up than by 3 in overtime at home to LSU."

 

[TideEngineer08]

It will be less painful for us psychologically.

I know it means we are left out.

I want to see the committee, and frankly Sankey, squirm.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

We have folks here who can remember 1966 - and you ask, "What the hell else could we do?"

At least in other cases like 1977, even if you disagree you can see the argument.

Years from now, it will be, "Meh, we got off to a slow start, but we had a pretty good year."
If we are there and then lose out to Oregon because they beat a team that already beat them, well, that's not really right.

Shouldn't we get to play Texas again if that's the argument????

 

[bamacon]

Create a path to the College Football Playoff by picking conference championship game winners

Pick the winners of each Power 5 conference title game using the Allstate Playoff Predictor and see how it affects your favorite CFP contender.

www.espn.com

We beat Georgia, Louisville beats FSU....other favorites win:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. Oregon - 99%
3. Texas - 88%
4. Bama - 84%
5. Ohio State
Probability that those picks are all correct - 8%

We beat Georgia, all other favorites win:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. FSU - 98%
3. Oregon - 94%
4. Texas - 57%
5. Bama - 43%
Probability that those picks are correct - 22%

We beat Georgia, OSU upsets Texas:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. FSU - 99%
3. Oregon - 98%
4. Bama - 81%
5. Ohio State - 12%
Probability that those picks are correct - 3%

We beat Georgia, OSU upsets Texas, Louisville upsets FSU:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. Oregon - 99%
3. Alabama - 95%
4. Ohio State - 46%
5. Georgia - 46%
Probability that those picks are correct - <1%

Basically, besides the obvious of beating Georgia......we absolutely need Louisville to beat FSU.

So sorta like 4th and Goal from the 31?

 

[bamacon]

First issue is - we HAVE to beat UGA or this isn't even a discussion.

I understand we have a TX problem, no denying that. They won head to head.

I do have an issue with being behind Org as a one loss PAC-12 champ and us being a one loss SEC champ just beating the #1 team in the country.

None of the metrics favor Org. But it will be what it will be and nothing said on this board or any other will change it. We just have to take care of our own business and everything else is out of our control.

This is where the ESPN narrative takes over.

Who said this….
“If it comes down to 12-1 Oregon vs. 12-1 Bama then it’s Oregon and it’s not even close!”

 

[TideEngineer08]

This is where the ESPN narrative takes over.

Who said this….
“If it comes down to 12-1 Oregon vs. 12-1 Bama then it’s Oregon and it’s not even close!”

Desmond Howard?

 

[bamacon]

Desmond Howard?

Not even Des would say something this absurd. If I hear another talking head say it then I’ll know the fix is in. Normally I’d say surely no one who knows anything about football could look at the 2 resumes and say that there’s no need for a conversation but….

 

[TideEngineer08]

Not even Des would say something this absurd

My first thought was Danny Kannell but of course he’s no longer with ESPN.

 

[BamaBoySince89]

What's their worst loss?

I get that, but being undefeated should not merit you a playoff spot just because. If Tulane were undefeated, would they get the same treatment?

 

[bamacon]

My first thought was Danny Kannell but of course he’s no longer with ESPN.

That would be a great guess but he said Bama will be boat raced by UGA so he said he’s not going to waste time with the debate.

 

[PA Tide Fan]

That would be a great guess but he said Bama will be boat raced by UGA so he said he’s not going to waste time with the debate.

He even mentioned he has a bet on the game taking Georgia -4. He thinks he made a great bet because he believes the spread will go up as the week progresses.

 

[bamacon]

Looks like we want UW to win. The Husky juggernaut has won each of its last 8 BRUTAL games by 10 points or less. I don’t see them beating the Ducks again unless Lanning gets all cocky with his analytics card and loses the game like he did in Seattle. There was zero reason for Oregon to lose that game. That said, the committee is hellbent of giving the Pac 2 a participation trophy for the last CFP semifinals.

I am still of the opinion that the SEC champion gets in regardless.

**but I really will be pulling for Louisville to beat FSU just in case 😆

 

[bamacon]

Desmond Howard?

 

[Snuffy Smith]

Looks like we want UW to win. The Husky juggernaut has won each of its last 8 BRUTAL games by 10 points or less. I don’t see them beating the Ducks again unless Lanning gets all cocky with his analytics card and loses the game like he did in Seattle. There was zero reason for Oregon to lose that game. That said, the committee is hellbent of giving the Pac 2 a participation trophy for the last CFP semifinals.

I am still of the opinion that the SEC champion gets in regardless.

**but I really will be pulling for Louisville to beat FSU just in case 😆

I would add that ESPN is a willful accomplice by spouting the same lines about the Ducks vs Bama and blissfully ignoring any facts.

CB4 said yesterday in one of the threads- Everything matters until it doesn't (maybe somewhat paraphrased).

Maybe they will surprise us all and make their selection based on resume and SoR assuming we beat the #1 or 2 team in the country. Not getting my hopes up though. This committee will likely put the Ducks into the final 4 and then make up whatever narrative they think will justify it.

 

[Power Eye]

Tonight's rankings will be a little interesting to see if Oregon jumps FSU. I don't think it happens, but if it were to happen then it would indicate we might still have a chance to jump FSU with a win over Georgia.