Playoff Predictor scenarios

[TIDE24]

First issue is - we HAVE to beat UGA or this isn't even a discussion.

I understand we have a TX problem, no denying that. They won head to head.

I do have an issue with being behind Org as a one loss PAC-12 champ and us being a one loss SEC champ just beating the #1 team in the country.

None of the metrics favor Org. But it will be what it will be and nothing said on this board or any other will change it. We just have to take care of our own business and everything else is out of our control.

 

[DzynKingRTR]

We want Oregon to win because Washington will for sure get in if they're undefeated. Oregon's resume will not stack up against ours if we beat UGA.

I think washington because you do not want this PAC-2 loving group to let 2 PAC-2 teams in.

 

[TideEngineer08]

It seems to me we would have been better off losing to say, Tennessee, than to have lost to Texas.

 

[B1GTide]

It seems to me we would have been better off losing to say, Tennessee, than to have lost to Texas.

Without question.

 

[Cruloc]

It seems to me we would have been better off losing to say, Tennessee, than to have lost to Texas.

Yes

 

[selmaborntidefan]

FSU is not a lock, somebody tell me what’s their biggest win this year?

What's their worst loss?

 

[selmaborntidefan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1729230996783202563

Someone needs to explain to me how Texas has the second most difficult schedule.

Everyone liked Sagarin on here just two weeks ago when we were shown with the #1 SoS.

Now we get demands for "how are they figuring this."

The committee doesn't 'use Sagarin is how they're figuring it.

Texas has a high SoS because they played Alabama, a 10-win team (OU) and three 8-win teams (the Kansas teams and Wyoming). I would suspect ours will go higher than Texas after the UGA game, though.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

SIAP

View attachment 38598

But I've been assured by dozens of Tidefans supporters here that the BCS was better than the committee and we'd rank higher........we're still 8th and still behind Oregon......

 

[colbysullivan]

What's their worst loss?

Jordan Travis…

 

[Bama Lee]

This is almost entirely the same committee as last year....with the exception of a 3 that were replaced.

Last year included:
Tom Burman - AD at Wyoming

Rick George - AD at Colorado

John Urschel - 2013 Campbell Trophy winner at Penn State, 5th round draft pick in 2014.

Last year didn't have Ault, Shields, Slayer.

They didn’t get right last year either

 

[crimsonaudio]

Won't matter if they are an undefeated ACC champion. They are a lock if they beat Louisville.

With wins over two SEC teams in OOC.

It is what it is. Every CFB fan in the country knows Bama would run FSU out of the stadium with that backup QB, but this is what happens when you lay an egg at home and leave it up to a committee.

 

[CB4]

So with five Power 5 conference champions and 4 CFP slots somebody is going to get left out. The ideal scenario for this august committee would be Georgia, Michigan, Washington, and FSU all undefeated. This would not require any explanation.

And that is what they are hoping for…no explanations. As I mentioned in another thread, Alabama beating UGA and the others holding serve would be the nightmare scenario for Sankey and the SEC.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

They didn’t get right last year either

Narrator:
"They DID get it right last year as they have every year thus far."

 

[colbysullivan]

Narrator:
"They DID get it right last year as they have every year thus far."

You are wrong. They abdicated their responsibility last year. TCU had no business being in the playoffs.

 

[RammerJammer14]

Create a path to the College Football Playoff by picking conference championship game winners

Pick the winners of each Power 5 conference title game using the Allstate Playoff Predictor and see how it affects your favorite CFP contender.

www.espn.com

We beat Georgia, Louisville beats FSU....other favorites win:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. Oregon - 99%
3. Texas - 88%
4. Bama - 84%
5. Ohio State
Probability that those picks are all correct - 8%

We beat Georgia, all other favorites win:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. FSU - 98%
3. Oregon - 94%
4. Texas - 57%
5. Bama - 43%
Probability that those picks are correct - 22%

We beat Georgia, OSU upsets Texas:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. FSU - 99%
3. Oregon - 98%
4. Bama - 81%
5. Ohio State - 12%
Probability that those picks are correct - 3%

We beat Georgia, OSU upsets Texas, Louisville upsets FSU:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. Oregon - 99%
3. Alabama - 95%
4. Ohio State - 46%
5. Georgia - 46%
Probability that those picks are correct - <1%

Basically, besides the obvious of beating Georgia......we absolutely need Louisville to beat FSU.

What? No Iowa upset of Michigan? 😝

 

[RammerJammer14]

LSU (our 3rd best win)

Who is #1 and #2 for us?

 

[colbysullivan]

Who is #1 and #2 for us?

I should have clarified. Assuming we beat UGA, they’re #1 obviously. #2 is Ole Miss.

 

[DzynKingRTR]

What? No Iowa upset of Michigan? 😝

Iowa couldn't score with a $5 escort if they had $20.

 

[TideEngineer08]

But I've been assured by dozens of Tidefans supporters here that the BCS was better than the committee and we'd rank higher........we're still 8th and still behind Oregon......

I'm curious what it would look like if we beat Georgia.

I couldn't see us jumping all the way to #2 (thinking about the actual BCS era), but could we jump into the top 4?

If not, then 🤷‍♂️

 

[selmaborntidefan]

And that is what they are hoping for…no explanations. As I mentioned in another thread, Alabama beating UGA and the others holding serve would be the nightmare scenario for Sankey and the SEC.

The funny thing is, if we wind up with four unbeatens, you don't even need a damned committee.

What decisions have they REALLY had to make that wouldn't have been made by the polls?

Ohio State in 2014
The Covid year (because of the unequal resume chances)

That's it.

For all the "no, not that team, that's wrong," we'd have gotten the exact same teams under the old poll system. We MIGHT have even gotten Ohio State, that's the one debatable point.

They didn't care about "winning your conference championship".

Washington finished at #2 and got 16 votes in the final AP poll in 1984 and only played Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl because (wait for it) they didn't win their Rose Bowl conference.