Playoff Predictor scenarios

Cruloc

Hall of Fame
Sep 1, 2019
5,539
9,012
187
My prediction for the rankings TONIGHT!!!

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Washington
4. FSU
5. Oregon
6. Texas
7. Ohio State
8. Alabama

I'm debating on whether they drop Ohio State to 6 or 7. I think its an equal probability for either. I don't think we move from 8.
 

denver

All-American
Nov 11, 2017
2,159
2,108
187
Oregon is the biggest conundrum in the whole rankings...Utah isnt a great win anymore...so their best is OreSt...thats it...so why the love?
 
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BamaMoon

Hall of Fame
Apr 1, 2004
21,172
16,593
282
Boone, NC
After seeing the '24 schedule yesterday and knowing that playing an OOC game really isn't to our benefit anymore, I think AD GB should be on the phone this morning cancelling the h/h with Wisky. Not even worth it. Schedule Faulkner or AUM or North Alabama.
 
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BhamToTexas

All-SEC
Dec 25, 2020
1,801
1,692
187
My prediction for the rankings TONIGHT!!!

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Washington
4. FSU
5. Oregon
6. Texas
7. Ohio State
8. Alabama

I'm debating on whether they drop Ohio State to 6 or 7. I think its an equal probability for either. I don't think we move from 8.
Agree they will leave us at 8.

I could see Michigan at 1 easily.

I could also see Ohio State anywhere from 5-7.
 
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TideEngineer08

TideFans Legend
Jun 9, 2009
36,318
31,033
187
Beautiful Cullman, AL
My prediction for the rankings TONIGHT!!!

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Washington
4. FSU
5. Oregon
6. Texas
7. Ohio State
8. Alabama

I'm debating on whether they drop Ohio State to 6 or 7. I think its an equal probability for either. I don't think we move from 8.
1. Michigan
2. Georgia
3. Washington
4. Florida State
5. Oregon
6. Ohio State
7. Texas
8. Alabama

Michigan moves up by virtue of beating #2, and also it allows Georgia to move down, thereby eliminating the possibility that Alabama beats the #1.

Our only shot if we win is for Florida State to lose to Louisville. Our win over Georgia while Ohio State does not play a game should allow us to jump the Buckeyes. If this happens, your playoff is:

1. Michigan vs. 4. Texas
2. Oregon/Washington winner vs. 3. Alabama

You could flip Alabama and Texas in that scenario. The championship game would then likely be Alabama vs. Texas.
 

LittleLexi

Scout Team
Nov 7, 2022
172
165
62

We beat Georgia, Louisville beats FSU....other favorites win:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. Oregon - 99%
3. Texas - 88%
4. Bama - 84%
5. Ohio State
Probability that those picks are all correct - 8%

We beat Georgia, all other favorites win:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. FSU - 98%
3. Oregon - 94%
4. Texas - 57%
5. Bama - 43%
Probability that those picks are correct - 22%

We beat Georgia, OSU upsets Texas:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. FSU - 99%
3. Oregon - 98%
4. Bama - 81%
5. Ohio State - 12%
Probability that those picks are correct - 3%

We beat Georgia, OSU upsets Texas, Louisville upsets FSU:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. Oregon - 99%
3. Alabama - 95%
4. Ohio State - 46%
5. Georgia - 46%
Probability that those picks are correct - <1%

Basically, besides the obvious of beating Georgia......we absolutely need Louisville to beat FSU.

I just can't see Bama being left out after Beating the #1 team, 2-time National Champ and busting up the 29-game winning streak.
 

Cruloc

Hall of Fame
Sep 1, 2019
5,539
9,012
187
1. Michigan
2. Georgia
3. Washington
4. Florida State
5. Oregon
6. Ohio State
7. Texas
8. Alabama

Michigan moves up by virtue of beating #2, and also it allows Georgia to move down, thereby eliminating the possibility that Alabama beats the #1.

Our only shot if we win is for Florida State to lose to Louisville. Our win over Georgia while Ohio State does not play a game should allow us to jump the Buckeyes. If this happens, your playoff is:

1. Michigan vs. 4. Texas
2. Oregon/Washington winner vs. 3. Alabama

You could flip Alabama and Texas in that scenario. The championship game would then likely be Alabama vs. Texas.
I'd love to get a Texas vs Alabama title game.
 

BamaMoon

Hall of Fame
Apr 1, 2004
21,172
16,593
282
Boone, NC
1. Michigan
2. Georgia
3. Washington
4. Florida State
5. Oregon
6. Ohio State
7. Texas
8. Alabama

Michigan moves up by virtue of beating #2, and also it allows Georgia to move down, thereby eliminating the possibility that Alabama beats the #1.

Our only shot if we win is for Florida State to lose to Louisville. Our win over Georgia while Ohio State does not play a game should allow us to jump the Buckeyes. If this happens, your playoff is:

1. Michigan vs. 4. Texas
2. Oregon/Washington winner vs. 3. Alabama

You could flip Alabama and Texas in that scenario. The championship game would then likely be Alabama vs. Texas.
That might be the most hyped game of the CFP era!

I just hoped FSU chokes to give us a chance!
 

Snuffy Smith

All-American
Sep 12, 2012
3,555
671
162
Huntsville, AL
But isn't that based only on games played already? After this weekend, that should be different....:unsure:
The real take away on that for both us and the Horns is how in the world is Oregon where they are relative to both teams with the huge gap in their SoS.

Answer is - the committee uses no objective measure for that. It is whatever they want you to believe it is.
The PAC 12 is the hardest conference this year
Oregon and Washington have played a brutal schedule
These are not the droids you are looking for
Nothing to see here
 

Cruloc

Hall of Fame
Sep 1, 2019
5,539
9,012
187
View attachment 38650
this is why I think Bama would get in if they win Sat.
1) Michigan
2) pac 12 champ
3) Texas
4) Bama

FSU will need to beat the Ville like 66-3
or they will get jumped. Resume will just be too soft on a weakened squad. No chance loser or the Pac 2 is taken over the SEC champions. Their history in the playoffs speak for themselves.
Nope, they'll never leave an undefeated Power 5 champ out. They can beat Louisville 3-2 and they're in. Especially on the last ranking with only 4 teams. This committee likes that 0 in the loss column.
 

TideEngineer08

TideFans Legend
Jun 9, 2009
36,318
31,033
187
Beautiful Cullman, AL
Nope, they'll never leave an undefeated Power 5 champ out. They can beat Louisville 3-2 and they're in. Especially on the last ranking with only 4 teams. This committee likes that 0 in the loss column.
Maybe. I guess we will all just have to wait and see. I'll pull for the Cardinals regardless, however.

It would not totally shock me if OK State beat Texas, but Texas really should plaster them. And they should not be ranked at all. Yet another head scratcher by this committee. This is a team that lost, convincingly, to South Alabama and Central Florida.
 

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