Michigan Opens as Slight Favorite in Rose Bowl

[Bama Lee]

Interesting look at the QB numbers...

https://www.reddit.com/r/rolltide/comments/18aokuk
Might be a little misleading, given that in the last several games Michigan hasn't NEEDED to pass. But I still see us loading up against the run.

That is an interesting read. Love the comparisons

 

[crimsonaudio]

Most of the time, not always, but most of the time when the betting public is hammering one side…Vegas is actually at a liability if that team covers.

I wouldn’t say it doesn’t have an effect. You’d be surprised…you know Bama receives a lot of public action MOST of the time….then explain some of the calls we get from officiating crews.

They absolutely affect games…

No, betting literally does not affect games - unless the coaches / players change their play because they are involved.

Otherwise, observation does not affect the actual performance.

Yes, Vegas is virtually always correct, but it's because they analyze data - not because of how people are betting.

 

[81usaf92]

Most of the time, not always, but most of the time when the betting public is hammering one side…Vegas is actually at a liability if that team covers.

I wouldn’t say it doesn’t have an effect. You’d be surprised…you know Bama receives a lot of public action MOST of the time….then explain some of the calls we get from officiating crews.

They absolutely affect games…

Vegas lines and spreads have zero effect on the outcome of a game. Refs are just bad in college football

 

[uafan4life]

No, betting literally does not affect games - unless the coaches / players change their play because they are involved.

Otherwise, observation does not affect the actual performance.

Yes, Vegas is virtually always correct, but it's because they analyze data - not because of how people are betting.

I believe he's insinuating that Vegas potentially affects the refs under certain circumstances...

 

[JustNeedMe81]

Anyway.. back to the subject... Michigan is good, but isn't good enough to beat Alabama, Georgia or Texas. Look at the scores for Penn State, Maryland and Ohio state. I believe with a month to prepare for them, We'll beat them real good. Michgian can't steal signs this time.

 

[countrytider]

No, betting literally does not affect games - unless the coaches / players change their play because they are involved.

Otherwise, observation does not affect the actual performance.

Yes, Vegas is virtually always correct, but it's because they analyze data - not because of how people are betting.

Vegas lines and spreads have zero effect on the outcome of a game. Refs are just bad in college football

Like I said…I’ve seen enough evidence suggesting otherwise. I’d like to believe that, but I think the bad officiating goes beyond “incompetence”.

 

[81usaf92]

Like I said…I’ve seen enough evidence suggesting otherwise. I’d like to believe that, but I think the bad officiating goes beyond “incompetence”.

I would really like to see this evidence because it ranks up there with the “Bama fatigue” nonsense in the tinfoil hat arguments based on actual evidence and understanding at how Vegas actually works.

 

[The Ols]

65% of the public was betting GA - 6….which made me feel good about Bama’s chances. You guys can say what you want…I’m not saying it’s an outright conspiracy..but there is a reason that going against the public in sports betting is a PROVEN strategy. I’ve won money doing it…

If everyone is going one way, run screaming in the other direction…it does win $$$…

 

[countrytider]

I would really like to see this evidence because it ranks up there with the “Bama fatigue” nonsense in the tinfoil hat arguments based on actual evidence and understanding at how Vegas actually works.

Look up the betting action numbers themselves. You can easily find the numbers as far as who the public is loading up on. Going against the public is a proven profitable betting strategy.

It doesn’t always work…the public has to win some..but Vegas wins far more. I know in theory they set the lines to “try” to get equal action on both sides. That’s not always the case. I know first hand, so the evidence is there. I’m not a “tin foil” hat guy…

 

[81usaf92]

Look up the betting action numbers themselves. You can easily find the numbers as far as who the public is loading up on.

It doesn’t always work…the public has to win some..but Vegas wins far more. I know in theory they set the lines to “try” to get equal action on both sides. That’s not always the case. I know first hand, so the evidence is there. I’m not a “tin foil” hat guy…

But you have yet to explain how betting action has any effect on a game. The whole street bookie boxing stories and the black Sox scandal has way too many people convinced that it is a common occurrence and not the rarest of occasion it actually is.

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

CNS coached teams show up prepared to play in cfp games. Even when we got our door’s blow off by Clemson, the team was prepared just outmatched.

I’d be curious to see a position group by position group comparison between Georgia and Michigan. I understand that Michigan has an experienced group of upperclassmen, but how do they compare in terms of athleticism and physicality with Georgia, who’s without question the most physical team we’ve played all season. I guess we should go rewatch the OSU MI game.

FYI - Brent Venables was stealing our signals...

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

Anyway.. back to the subject... Michigan is good, but isn't good enough to beat Alabama, Georgia or Texas. Look at the scores for Penn State, Maryland and Ohio state. I believe with a month to prepare for them, We'll beat them real good. Michgian can't steal signs this time.

Why?

 

[tideindc]

Anyway.. back to the subject... Michigan is good, but isn't good enough to beat Alabama, Georgia or Texas. Look at the scores for Penn State, Maryland and Ohio state. I believe with a month to prepare for them, We'll beat them real good. Michgian can't steal signs this time.

I fully disagree. Michigan Is good enough to beat us. We have also had a few close calls, including against a bad Auburn team. As BigTide said, Bama will win if they are at the top of their game…anything less and we can lose this.

 

[Big Bama1966]

Honest opinion is um shouldn't even be allowed in the CFP with the cheating they have been caught doing. It should be Wash, FSU, Bama, Texas or uga.

 

[JustNeedMe81]

I fully disagree. Michigan Is good enough to beat us. We have also had a few close calls, including against a bad Auburn team. As BigTide said, Bama will win if they are at the top of their game…anything less and we can lose this.

Okay sir... the reason I made the statement...

Look at Michigan's schedule. Compare that against Alabama. Bama played lot of better teams than Michigan did.

For Michigan to win game against Bama, they have to fix some of pass protection issues they've had in last few games. They have to be able to run the ball and throw the ball. They can't do that against Bama. Bama will take one of those away and force Michigan to be limited on offensive side.

Bama is experienced. They've faced so many battles this season. Fought Texas... made few mistakes...
fought South Florida, Ole Miss, TAMU, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU, then going on the road, winning at Auburn .. then having to play #1 Georgia next week...

Michigan...is good.. but we match up well with them. I also want to remind everyone lot of people were permisstic about Auburn and Georgia.... didn't think we would win against them and yet I'm seeing same thing for Michigan. Your confidence should be high and We should be able to handle Michigan. None of the teams they played had same horsepower that Bama had.

You also forgetting, Give Saban a month to prepare and He's dangerous as a HC. He's 8-2 v.s. no. 1 team.

 

[JustNeedMe81]

Why?

All eyes are on them. Pressure is on them.

 

[MikeInBama]

All eyes are on them. Pressure is on them.

Not just that but they would have had to have already done it, and if they had to pick an SEC team to steal signs from they would have focused on UGA.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Not just that but they would have had to have already done it, and if they had to pick an SEC team to steal signs from they would have focused on UGA.

I suspect they stole signs from both UGA and Bama.

 

[gtgilbert]

I would say that our scheme is more like a 2-4 Flex Nickel. I say that because we tend to use only 2 defensive tackles. I have watched Michigan only the last two games, but I noticed a lot of multiple TE sets. That is why I alluded to the true 3-4. Their passing game isn't scary. It is their running game that has me concerned.

well the groupings we use to fill out the defensive formations can change for sure. We do run a grouping that is 2DL, 2OLBs and 2 ILBs that could be viewed as a 2-4, but the alignment is a 4-2 with the 2OLBs playing like DEs. This was the grouping that it seemed like Golding would refuse to get out of, even when we'd get gashed in the run game. This year we more often run a grouping that is a 3DL, 1OLB and 2ILBs and as the season has progressed, we've played it as a 4-2 front way more often, and with way more success, than running it like a 3-3. The reason is that the 3-3 takes our best pass rushers (either Turner or Braswell) and puts them into coverage, then we usually rush one ILB. That's just not as effective as letting our OLB do what he does best and shifting the ILB out into the coverage

For reference - through the first couple of games this season (that's all I tracked), we ran the nickel D almost 87% of the time, and the dime the other 13%.

We ran the 3-1-2-5 (DL, OLB, ILB, DB) grouping 45.5% of the time, and the 2-2-2-5 41.1% of the time.

The alignment was the even front (4-2-5) with the OLBs playing more like DEs 61.76% of the time, and an odd front 3-3-5, with an OLB out in coverage 25% of the time. Our even front Dime package was used 8.82% of the time and the odd front dime (a 3-2 alignment, but sometimes we still used the 1-3-1-6 package Golding made <in>famous and one of the guys lined up as ILBs, one of whom was an OLB by trade, would typically rush so it kinda morphed into an even front rush look in the end) was used 4.41%

Net, even at the start of the year, we were an even front team between 70-75% of the time, and though I haven't tracked every play from the middle of the season on, it's been noticeable that we've shifted more toward the even front so we can let the OLBs do what they do best. Saban even referred to pushing that change to the D coaches after the first drive against UGA where we did use the odd front (with poor results) and playing even front for most of the rest of the game. We even stayed in the nickel when UGA was playing multiple TE sets

 

[tideindc]

Okay sir... the reason I made the statement...

Look at Michigan's schedule. Compare that against Alabama. Bama played lot of better teams than Michigan did.

For Michigan to win game against Bama, they have to fix some of pass protection issues they've had in last few games. They have to be able to run the ball and throw the ball. They can't do that against Bama. Bama will take one of those away and force Michigan to be limited on offensive side.

Bama is experienced. They've faced so many battles this season. Fought Texas... made few mistakes...
fought South Florida, Ole Miss, TAMU, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU, then going on the road, winning at Auburn .. then having to play #1 Georgia next week...

Michigan...is good.. but we match up well with them. I also want to remind everyone lot of people were permisstic about Auburn and Georgia.... didn't think we would win against them and yet I'm seeing same thing for Michigan. Your confidence should be high and We should be able to handle Michigan. None of the teams they played had same horsepower that Bama had.

You also forgetting, Give Saban a month to prepare and He's dangerous as a HC. He's 8-2 v.s. no. 1 team.

You make great points. It’s just that this years team is unpredictable…..so I’m not gonna expect the W until the final second. And I do think Michigan is better than most here do