Michigan Opens as Slight Favorite in Rose Bowl

colbysullivan

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Dec 12, 2007
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I like this a lot better than the narrative headed into the playoffs in 2020 and 2021 where Bama was just going to "throttle" Notre Dame and Cincinnati. We didn't win either of those semifinals by as much as we should have.
Sorry but I can't get behind this one. We literally toyed with both of those teams.
 

Power Eye

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Aug 3, 2005
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Sorry but I can't get behind this one. We literally toyed with both of those teams.
Yeah, those games were over rather quickly. Could we have won by more, sure, but it would have been just window dressing more than anything else. We were clearly the better teams and dominated both games.
 
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BamaInBham

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Feb 14, 2007
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The public perception is NOT that Michigan is better. Maybe the committee and the media narrative is that..….and VEGAS has Michigan a -1.5 Favorite…..so yes Alabama is technically an “underdog” according to VEGAS…

but the BETTING PUBLIC is literally betting Alabama at an 83% clip like it’s easy money. Over 16k bets.

That’s ALWAYS a concern when Vegas allows lopsided action on one side without adjusting the line very much..

Anyone who bets knows this…
"That’s ALWAYS a concern when Vegas allows lopsided action on one side without adjusting the line very much.."

A concern in what sense? I.e., what exactly do you mean? Please help us who are naive - thanks.
 
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CajunCrimson

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"That’s ALWAYS a concern when Vegas allows lopsided action on one side without adjusting the line very much.."

A concern in what sense? I.e., what exactly do you mean? Please help us who are naive - thanks.
I think he’s suggesting that since the line hasn’t moved that Vegas is happily scooping up money bet on Bama with the idea that Vegas thinks Michigan will easily cover.

The one thing we don’t know are the money line bets. Which is a straight up thing vs a spread

Also, it’s 3+ weeks away and most of the bets haven’t been placed yet. It will even out. They will want it to.
 

uafan4life

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Mar 30, 2001
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I think he’s suggesting that since the line hasn’t moved that Vegas is happily scooping up money bet on Bama with the idea that Vegas thinks Michigan will easily cover...
No, he's suggesting that, since the line hasn't moved, Vegas is happily scooping up money being bet on Alabama because they already know they can influence the refs to throw the game to ensure Michigan wins and covers...
 
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TideEngineer08

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View attachment 38963Probably high jacking this thread, but...
The one good memory from that 2000 season was the ABC opening of the game vs UCLA in the Rose Bowl. Keith Jackson “Al A BAMA it’s been a long time since we’ve seen you, it’s good to see you again”

-Alabama’s last appearance on ABC with Keith Jackson on the call was the 1994 SEC championship.
 

Countrytider2

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Oct 25, 2021
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"That’s ALWAYS a concern when Vegas allows lopsided action on one side without adjusting the line very much.."

A concern in what sense? I.e., what exactly do you mean? Please help us who are naive - thanks.
In theory, Vegas would want as close to “equal” action on both sides. When it’s not equal, they will adjust the line to get it as close as possible.

Anytime a game is receiving lopsided action, and Vegas allows it without adjusting the line…then they are basically encouraging people to bet on one side over another…

As of today, people are still betting Alabama at an 83% clip, over 18k bets so far..but the line has stayed consistently at Michigan -1.5.

At this rate, the line should be moving toward favoring Alabama, except that it hasn’t. At least not yet.

If Alabama wins, Vegas will lose money on that game. Plain and simple.

That’s why it’s a concern.
 

landonew

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Nov 21, 2023
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"That’s ALWAYS a concern when Vegas allows in
In theory, Vegas would want as close to “equal” action on both sides. When it’s not equal, they will adjust the line to get it as close as possible.

Anytime a game is receiving lopsided action, and Vegas allows it without adjusting the line…then they are basically encouraging people to bet on one side over another…

As of today, people are still betting Alabama at an 83% clip, over 18k bets so far..but the line has stayed consistently at Michigan -1.5.

At this rate, the line should be moving toward favoring Alabama, except that it hasn’t. At least not yet.

If Alabama wins, Vegas will lose money on that game. Plain and simple.

That’s why it’s a concern.
lopsided action on one side without adjusting the line very much.."

A concern in what sense? I.e., what exactly do you mean? Please help us who are naive - thanks.
95% of public bets are placed the week before the game. They’re not going to change the line this early.
 

BamaInBham

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Feb 14, 2007
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In theory, Vegas would want as close to “equal” action on both sides. When it’s not equal, they will adjust the line to get it as close as possible.

Anytime a game is receiving lopsided action, and Vegas allows it without adjusting the line…then they are basically encouraging people to bet on one side over another…

As of today, people are still betting Alabama at an 83% clip, over 18k bets so far..but the line has stayed consistently at Michigan -1.5.

At this rate, the line should be moving toward favoring Alabama, except that it hasn’t. At least not yet.

If Alabama wins, Vegas will lose money on that game. Plain and simple.

That’s why it’s a concern.
Not trying to be a bother, but are you suggesting that LV is confident of their position or that they know they can influence the game, as uafan4life suggested? Thanks for your patience.
 

Countrytider2

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Oct 25, 2021
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Not trying to be a bother, but are you suggesting that LV is confident of their position or that they know they can influence the game, as uafan4life suggested? Thanks for your patience.
I think there are *some* games that for whatever reason they allow the public to absolutely load up on one side. Like it’s “easy money”.

When this happens, the game goes the other way a lot of the time. Usually there are some extremely shady officiating. Holding call here, PI there…a no call here etc…. it doesn’t take much for a referee to influence the game.

Some think it’s just “bad”, or “incompetence ”. But Ive seen it throughout the years. Recent examples are obvious ones..our game in Knoxville last year, @ the barn this year. There is absolutely no transparency for these officials, and no accountability.

Like I said, I’m not a “tin foil hat” guy. I do bet for fun and follow the betting action as I’m sure there are others on here that do as well and can vouch for this. I won’t say it’s an outright conspiracy, but all it takes is one crooked officiating crew, or one crooked ref.

Just take Bama for instance. We have people on here that have went back so many years and actually crunched the numbers. Holding calls against us, lack of holding calls against our opponents…PI’s against us, lack of PI’s against our opponents. The numbers were actually staggering. For years the SEC office allowing SIX teams to have bye weeks before they played Bama. What’s crazy is how everyone is convinced the SEC protects Alabama…when the evidence shows it is the absolute opposite.

The situation with Fulmer at UcheaT, almost getting Bama the death penalty and telling recruits Bama would be “out of business” soon..then we get absolutely hammered by the ncaa.

On and on, example after example of crookedness in MANY different aspects. So why in the would some be so naive to think betting action can’t or doesn’t affect the outcomes of ballgames.

All anyone has to do is google “betting against the public”. It’s there for anyone who wants to see it. Numbers, actual evidence.

It’s a proven, profitable betting strategy.
 
Last edited:

BamaInBham

All-American
Feb 14, 2007
4,467
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I think there are *some* games that for whatever reason they allow the public to absolutely load up on one side. Like it’s “easy money”.

When this happens, the game goes the other way a lot of the time. Usually there are some extremely shady officiating. Holding call here, PI there…a no call here etc…. it doesn’t take much for a referee to influence the game.

Some think it’s just “bad”, or “incompetence ”. But Ive seen it throughout the years. Recent examples are obvious ones..our game in Knoxville last year, @ the barn this year. There is absolutely no transparency for these officials, and no accountability.

Like I said, I’m not a “tin foil hat” guy. I do bet for fun and follow the betting action as I’m sure there are others on here that do as well and can vouch for this. I won’t say it’s an outright conspiracy, but all it takes is one crooked officiating crew, or one crooked ref.

Just take Bama for instance. We have people on here that have went back so many years and actually crunched the numbers. Holding calls against us, lack of holding calls against our opponents…PI’s against us, lack of PI’s against our opponents. The numbers were actually staggering. For years the SEC office allowing SIX teams to have bye weeks before they played Bama. What’s crazy is how everyone is convinced the SEC protects Alabama…when the evidence shows it is the absolute opposite.

The situation with Fulmer at UcheaT, almost getting Bama the death penalty and telling recruits Bama would be “out of business” soon..then we get absolutely hammered by the ncaa.

On and on, example after example of crookedness in MANY different aspects. So why in the would some be so naive to think betting action can’t or doesn’t affect the outcomes of ballgames.

All anyone has to do is google “betting against the public”. It’s there for anyone who wants to see it. Numbers, actual evidence.

It’s a proven, profitable betting strategy.
While I think there are natural explanations and in other cases other nefarious motives for some of your “concerns”, I have recently come to believe that there is possibly some ref corruption from time to time. That’s why I wanted clarification on what you were saying. I hope that’s not the case in this game.

Maybe if Bama fans make enough noise about the potential in this game, they can scare LV into leaving it alone. 🙂
 
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