Birmingham News SEC predictions

[GrayTide]

Preseason predictions are just that predictions. These guys who work in the media and host sports talk shows do not have any more information to work with than we do, it is simply their opinion. It is easy to predict that LSU and UF will finish higher than MSU and Vandy but when you get near the top of the heap in the SEC it is anybody's guess. You have to look no farther than the 2000 team, preseason #3, the bottom falls out at UCLA and the season spirals out of control to get a barometer on preseason predictions.

 

[TexasTideFan]

The 2000 defense was nothing to write home

That D was loaded. King, Moorehead, and Johnson on the DL. A. Odom and A. Bryant were also Freshman D-Linemen. Rasheed and Wortham at LB. Tony Dixon at SS. Reggie Myles at FS. Milo Lewis at Corner. BTW, all of these guys went to the NFL.

I think this list of players perfectly illustrates what Jess pointed out in his post because even though we had one of the biggest collections of firepower to maybe ever play on a D at Bama, we still had only a so-so season that year under a regime change. We even got embarassed by LSU with Rohan Davey putting up like 500 yards of O on us. However, we did turn it around in a big way, with a huge defeat of Auburn that made that season and then becoming one of the nation's best Defenses the next year.

 

[RT1941]

I couldn't agree more. LSU's defense could carry that team until the offense gets their act together. A few weeks ago I was speaking with a VT grad friend of mine and we both agreed that the LSU-VT game could be really important in deciding the national title game. It will be a must watch.

Just like Bama's offense will have to carry the team til the defense gets enough experience under their belt. September will be brutal for Bama, I hope these young defensive players are ready to learn quick....:BigA:

 

[JessN]

>In 2001, when we went from Ellis Johnson's defense to Carl Torbush's >defense, we got reamed a couple of times, once by Saban's LSU team. The >same thing happened in 2003 when we moved from Torbush's scheme to >Kines' scheme.

I would like to think that Saban is a better coach than Torbush & Ellis Johnson & has the ability to get it going much quicker but apparently I am in the minority with my confidence in Saban & Co's ability.

I think we at least win 9 games - there is no powerhouses on our schedule.

No powerhouses, but nine teams (all but Western Carolina and Louisiana-Monroe) are capable of beating Alabama. Yes, even Houston.

Right now, Alabama would have to be considered a betting underdog to Georgia, FSU, Tennessee, LSU and Auburn, and Arkansas is basically a tossup. That's 6-6 if UA was to lose all of them. I don't think it will happen, but that's where we're at.

If you're projecting "at least 9" wins, it's going to be tough to get there without a couple of mild upsets and at the same time not losing anything UA is supposed to win.

 

[LCN]

It would be a huge help if we can actually run the ball with some consistency . Help keep our defense of the field some in the first few games so the unit can begin to gel without giving up some confidence shattering totals .

 

[TexasTideFan]

(all but Western Carolina and Louisiana-Monroe)

A little FYI about UL Monroe. I'm from Monroe and from what I have heard this team has probably got the best talent returning in the Sunbelt this year. I really doubt we lose to them, but then again I am sure Kentucky didn't think that last year when the Warhawks gave them a dog fight at home and only ended up squeaking out a win, 42-40.

 

[red55]

This years defense should be your strongest yet. But they haven't played a game yet. Odds are they will do fine but you won't truly know until the season starts and they show that they picked up where they ended last season and are rolling along.

True enough, of course this is true for any team. Still, LSU has allowed an average of 13.7 points a games over the last four years and returns 8 defensive starters and the DC. We ain't much worried about our defense. We are a bit worried about a new QB against VT in game two.

In today's game depending on a defense to win is some kind of tough to do. Depending a defense to win games means (to bama fans at least) that your offense is sputtering along at 13-16 pts a game. That ain't good bro no matter how good your defense is.

I know eaxctly what you mean, I'm just not realistically expecting that big of a drop-off. In this century LSU has averaged 29.7 points a game, under great quarterbacks (Russell), good quarterbacks (Davey, Booty), average quarterbacks (Mauck), and poor quarterbacks (Randall). LSU posted 40 under flynn in his only start. LSU has not posted worse than a 24.9 season in that period.

 

[J.Will]

I think we can win 10 games this year but we WILL have to outscore alot of our SEC opponets.

That's generally how you win football games. :biggrin:

 

[bamaslammer]

Tebow may be VERY talented and may yet be a great QB, even starting to be that this year, but what I don't swallow is that anything he did last year is a good predictor, he came in to run the draw, when he pulled up and threw, it was a trick play and he had some success. I do agree it was a good thing to get him in just for the atmosphere and experience, starting and playing a whole game in the SEC is a far different matter and Tebow will have growing pains, Plus the coach could afford to run draws with Tebow when he was a backup, will he be as willing when Tebow is the starter, you can see how his vaunted running ability could quickly become moot should he take a few hard hits.

 

[BamaJama17]

That's generally how you win football games. :biggrin:

Yes but I was talking about WAC Shootouts!!!! You know payback on Tenessee!!!

 

[derek4tide]

True enough, of course this is true for any team. Still, LSU has allowed an average of 13.7 points a games over the last four years and returns 8 defensive starters and the DC. We ain't much worried about our defense. We are a bit worried about a new QB against VT in game two.

As a college football fan, I'm very interested in seeing how he does against that Beamer defense. What does LSU have on the o-line? That could help him or hurt him. We at Alabama know all too well what a young, inexperienced line can do for (and to) your QB.

 

[Tide&True]

True enough, of course this is true for any team. Still, LSU has allowed an average of 13.7 points a games over the last four years and returns 8 defensive starters and the DC. We ain't much worried about our defense. We are a bit worried about a new QB against VT in game two.

Also, beware of the blocked punt...they have great ST.

 

[Fishhead]

Also, beware of the blocked punt...they have great ST.

That is a serious concern to me...we have a new punter. It's uncanny how effective they are at blocking kicks.
That said, defense wins championships...period. To say that they haven't played a game yet is not actually true. LSU's defense is returning just about everyone but Laron Landry...a huge loss there, though. They should actually be better than last years...with the only question mark at SS.

 

[Pachyderm37]

I'm thinking that an 8-4 season would actually be a good season. Yes, I'd like to win every game and end up National Champs. Don't see it happening, though. What I really would like to see this year is a vast improvement in play calling, less mental mistakes ( overall ) and penalties, and us not being completely winded mid-way through the third quarter.

There are probably gonna be some painfull experiences this season but I'm looking to see if we learn from them and get better or if we just stay at the same old mediocre level all season long. I don't think the latter will be the case and I think the '08 season will really be the beginning of our re-birth.


RTR !!!!!!!!!!!! Burn the Barn !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Bamabuzzard]

Each season is a "new season". I've watched and played for teams that returned pretty much the overwhelmingly majority of the same players but had much different outcomes the next season. Again, I think LSU will probably end up picking right up where they left off (defensively speaking) with an opportunity to be better. But by no means is last year's success a guarantee for this season. There's a chance that (for whatever reason) the defense doesn't perform lights out like everyone is predicting. That actually could happen. It's happened before.

Anybody predict Florida to win the NC last season? Their
preseason "weaknesses" that were suppose to keep them from title contention didn't turn out to be as "weak" as predicted. That scenario goes both ways. Predictions and "should be's" are far from guarantees. The "experts" are saying that Bama's defense will be woefully outmanned this season. I say let's wait and see. No one knows how quick the system is going to click with these guys and no one knows the impact Saban's weight/conditioning program has had on these guys until they hit the field in a real game.

I'm not throwing in the towel just yet and giving any trophy to anyteam before the season is even played. Lot's could happen and the "best" don't always come in first. You know what I mean?

 

[Fishhead]

Anybody predict Florida to win the NC last season? Their
preseason "weaknesses" that were suppose to keep them from title contention didn't turn out to be as "weak" as predicted. ?

So what you're saying...by my interpretation, anyway...is that LSU will win the NC this year...since their offense in predicted to be suspect??!! I'll take it! lol

 

[Bamabuzzard]

So what you're saying...by my interpretation, anyway...is that LSU will win the NC this year...since their offense in predicted to be suspect??!! I'll take it! lol

Difference is LSU is being picked as the most likely team out of the SEC to play for the NC. Florida wasn't.

But that doesn't mean a thing. LSU has the talent to make a SERIOUS run at the MNC.

 

[MortonLSU]

Also, beware of the blocked punt...they have great ST.

This is what worries me most about the VT game. I'm sure Matt Flynn will do fine and our D will shut them down.

But last season we kept running this crazy punt formation. Every time we would punt, the defense was a few inches from blocking it. And our punter averaged 37 yards per punt, which is horrible. I'm sure when VT watches game film, they will be drooling at that formation.

I heard it was because our deep snapper was having trouble. We recruited a deep snapper this season, so I hope that's the case and that crazy formation is fixed to a normal one where defenders are actually blocked.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

The snapper and holder, for FGs are the forgotten men, and yet they are responsible for as many misses as the kicker himself. A few years ago, we had decent kickers but lousy holders and snappers, resulting in a couple of blocked punts and some badly missed FGs. When I tried to suggest here that there was more to the story than the kicker, I was just about howled down. Any time you notice a coach playing around with snappers and holders - trying different combinations - you can bet that a large part of the problem rests with the snapper or FG holder. If he keeps the same holder but rotates snappers, then there's where the problem is. Did you have trouble on FGs as well?

 

[red55]

As a college football fan, I'm very interested in seeing how he does against that Beamer defense. What does LSU have on the o-line? That could help him or hurt him. We at Alabama know all too well what a young, inexperienced line can do for (and to) your QB.

The OL is good this year, probably better than last year in terms of talented starters, but not as deep in experienced players. Our best lineman, guard Will Arnold, suffered a severe injury last season and was held out of spring practice. He may not be 100% in the fall. Sophomore Ciron Black is a future All-SEC/All-American talent at left tackle. LSU can't take a lot of injuries on the line this season, but otherwise has a distinguished offensive line.

Also, beware of the blocked punt...they have great ST.

We didn't get any punts blocked last season, but special teams was LSU's weak area last season and will be again this year.

Any time you notice a coach playing around with snappers and holders - trying different combinations - you can bet that a large part of the problem rests with the snapper or FG holder. If he keeps the same holder but rotates snappers, then there's where the problem is. Did you have trouble on FGs as well?

Few problems with the deep snap last year and none at all with the holder, Matt Flynn. The trouble was the lack of a kicker who could hit reliably from 50 yards--it cost us the Auburn game.