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Question: Analyze LSU

Worries:

Lacy is not full speed last two weeks although he suddenly appeared at full speed for MO. Hope he surprises us.

Cooper, bell, and 22 not full speed.

I worry that we don't get a whole lot of penetration with our D line. (might be by design) but hope we can keept their backs under 3 yds per carry.

Their D line is the best we've faced and will slow our running game especially early. AJ needs to be healthy.

NO KICKOFF RETURNS.

If we play our game and remain as calm as usual we will have a fine chance. LSU will die trying to win this one.

I would not be surprised if we lost, but I would not be surprised if we played our best game of the year.
 
There are 2 concerns I have with this game. LSU's defensive line, and LSU's ability to run the ball against our defense.

As so many have stated, our OL tends to struggle with a pass rush off the edge. You won't find a better defensive line than LSU's at rushing the passer off the edge. Somehow, someway, either through play design or better execution, we must negate their pass rush.

In the Saban era, LSU has been the one team that could line up and run the ball on our defense for 150+ yards on us. If they do that this Saturday, then they are in this game for the duration. If they can pressure AJ, and run the ball on us, then we're in serious jeopardy.

We're better than them in all phases, just like we were last year. Y'all have posted stats, well, go back and look at last year's stats going into the regular season game. Everything pointed to something like 24-7 Alabama. But it didn't end up that way. If we come out and start fast and aggressive and get on them early, we'll win going away like we are supposed to. But if we come out and stumble around like we did in last year's regular season game, then the heavy weight 15 round boxing match is on.
 
TideEngineer08 said:
There are 2 concerns I have with this game. LSU's defensive line, and LSU's ability to run the ball against our defense.

As so many have stated, our OL tends to struggle with a pass rush off the edge. You won't find a better defensive line than LSU's at rushing the passer off the edge. Somehow, someway, either through play design or better execution, we must negate their pass rush.

In the Saban era, LSU has been the one team that could line up and run the ball on our defense for 150+ yards on us. If they do that this Saturday, then they are in this game for the duration. If they can pressure AJ, and run the ball on us, then we're in serious jeopardy.

We're better than them in all phases, just like we were last year. Y'all have posted stats, well, go back and look at last year's stats going into the regular season game. Everything pointed to something like 24-7 Alabama. But it didn't end up that way. If we come out and start fast and aggressive and get on them early, we'll win going away like we are supposed to. But if we come out and stumble around like we did in last year's regular season game, then the heavy weight 15 round boxing match is on.
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Well said
 
TideEngineer08 said:
We're better than them in all phases, just like we were last year. Y'all have posted stats, well, go back and look at last year's stats going into the regular season game. Everything pointed to something like 24-7 Alabama.
Click to expand...
Uhh, no, not really even close - they were neck and neck with Bama heading into the game last year both offensively and defensively (Stats below are through the first eight games. Note: LSU played FIVE top 25 teams in the first eight games, as opposed to three by Bama):
LSU offensive PPG: 39.25
Alabama offensive PPG: 39.38

LSU defensive PPG: 10.25
Alabama defensive PPG: 7.13

And he resulting score followed the balance those stats indicated between the teams.

The stats this year are night and day different, and I suspect the outcome will be, as well.
 
TideEngineer08 said:
There are 2 concerns I have with this game. LSU's defensive line, and LSU's ability to run the ball against our defense.

As so many have stated, our OL tends to struggle with a pass rush off the edge. You won't find a better defensive line than LSU's at rushing the passer off the edge. Somehow, someway, either through play design or better execution, we must negate their pass rush.

In the Saban era, LSU has been the one team that could line up and run the ball on our defense for 150+ yards on us. If they do that this Saturday, then they are in this game for the duration. If they can pressure AJ, and run the ball on us, then we're in serious jeopardy.

We're better than them in all phases, just like we were last year. Y'all have posted stats, well, go back and look at last year's stats going into the regular season game. Everything pointed to something like 24-7 Alabama. But it didn't end up that way. If we come out and start fast and aggressive and get on them early, we'll win going away like we are supposed to. But if we come out and stumble around like we did in last year's regular season game, then the heavy weight 15 round boxing match is on.
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they better stay aggresive for all four qtrs. it seems that there is a tendancy to take the 2nd and 3rd qtr off this season.
 
tidefan39817 said:
they better stay aggresive for all four qtrs. it seems that there is a tendancy to take the 2nd and 3rd qtr off this season.
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We didn't see any lulls in the championship game, and I don't think we'll see any here. If they can run the ball, we'll have a ballgame. If we even do half as well as Florida did in tying them up, our QB is way too good for us not to win the game.
 
CrimsonEyeshade said:
We didn't see any lulls in the championship game, and I don't think we'll see any here. If they can run the ball, we'll have a ballgame. If we even do half as well as Florida did in tying them up, our QB is way too good for us not to win the game.
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And if we can run the ball, WE will have a ball game. ;0
 
I'm just happy it's in Baton Rouge. Yes, you read that right. I think Nick Saban teams play MUCH better in hostile environments. See UGA 2008, or the LSU in New Orleans vs. LSU in Tuscaloosa last year. Saban football is not loose, fun football like some teams strive for. It's an angry beatdown of the other team. That style can be easier to relax from at times, but when you back Bama into a corner they can rip any team apart.
 
MBA_99 said:
I'm just happy it's in Baton Rouge. Yes, you read that right. I think Nick Saban teams play MUCH better in hostile environments. See UGA 2008, or the LSU in New Orleans vs. LSU in Tuscaloosa last year. Saban football is not loose, fun football like some teams strive for. It's an angry beatdown of the other team. That style can be easier to relax from at times, but when you back Bama into a corner they can rip any team apart.
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Your sentiments were echoed recently by BJ, when he said that they played better on the road - thrived off the boos. He also mentioned fewer distractions on the road...
 
I'm gonna guess what I think Jess will say:

QB - UA
RB - LSU
WR - Slight UA (due to injuries)
OL - UA

DL - LSU
LB - Strong UA
DB - UA
ST - UA

With the line match ups going to both D's.

I guess I forgot to take off the crimson glasses. No way he gives us 6 of 8 over LSU does he?
 
MBA_99 said:
I'm just happy it's in Baton Rouge. Yes, you read that right. I think Nick Saban teams play MUCH better in hostile environments. See UGA 2008, or the LSU in New Orleans vs. LSU in Tuscaloosa last year. Saban football is not loose, fun football like some teams strive for. It's an angry beatdown of the other team. That style can be easier to relax from at times, but when you back Bama into a corner they can rip any team apart.
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I've noticed that as well. I'm glad it's in LA. Less distractions, more focus, an angrier attitude.
 
The only thing that worries me is pass protection, especially Fluker. Although Koundjio (sp?) hasn't been consistent either.

If we keep AJ upright wit a clean jersey, we win. If LSU's speed rushers get pressure, it could be a problem. AJ's already dinged up a little. If he gets knocked out of the game, we go from being BCSNC favorites to also-rans real quick.

Then A&M awaits. We have clearly better talent, and there's no tangible reason they should threaten. But win or lose in Baton Rouge, we'll have a tough time reaching an emotional high again for the Ags. It's the mental side that worries me. And if AJ's less than 100% for them, that compounds the issue.
 
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The war in the trenches should be reminiscent of a Frazier/Foreman fight. I've confidence a-plenty in our team, but this should be the manliest bunch of big uglies they face all year.
 
I'm strangely comfortable that Bama will win this game going away.

That said, I'm concerned about LSU's run game with four talented running back pounding and pounding on our D line.

I think the QB's are the key to the game, though. AJ is head and shoulders better than Mettinberger and should be able to hit enough passes to stretch the field vertically.

Bama is a 9-1/2 point favorite in todays betting line and I'd say that'll be about right.

I know for sure, though, that LSU is outcoached as soon as they step on the field.
 
Bamabuzzard said:
This^^^^.

This Saturday IS THEIR season. Has been since January 10th of this year. This game is more than a game to get to the SECCG or the BCSCG. This is about so much more to them.

Over the last decade, with LSU's rise to the one of the elites of college football, much of their fan base has felt that as a football program, they have surpassed Alabama. This mostly comes from the bandwagon fans who jumped on board in the early 2000's. You don't get this type attitude from the old school, long in the tooth fans. They are much, much more knowledgeable. But a lot of their fan base is made up of these bandwagon fans. So what happened on January 9th was inconceivable. That COULD NOT of happened under "normal" circumstances. So this game is about "setting the record straight". I also think the rest of Les' support rides on this game, and I think he and his players know that. I have no doubts CNS will have a gameplan ready. But I just hope our players and our staff understand that to the LSU folks this is much, much more than a game leading to a championship. This is very, very personal.
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I'll take the process over emotion any day of the week :)
 
MBA_99 said:
I'm just happy it's in Baton Rouge. Yes, you read that right. I think Nick Saban teams play MUCH better in hostile environments. See UGA 2008, or the LSU in New Orleans vs. LSU in Tuscaloosa last year. Saban football is not loose, fun football like some teams strive for. It's an angry beatdown of the other team. That style can be easier to relax from at times, but when you back Bama into a corner they can rip any team apart.
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And we owned Tiger Stadium from 1969 to 2000 when, ironically, Saban showed up at LSU.

Still got that nagging feeling, but the stats comparisons are helping.

Glad I joined TFs!
 
crimsonaudio said:
Uhh, no, not really even close - they were neck and neck with Bama heading into the game last year both offensively and defensively (Stats below are through the first eight games. Note: LSU played FIVE top 25 teams in the first eight games, as opposed to three by Bama):
LSU offensive PPG: 39.25
Alabama offensive PPG: 39.38

LSU defensive PPG: 10.25
Alabama defensive PPG: 7.13

And he resulting score followed the balance those stats indicated between the teams.

The stats this year are night and day different, and I suspect the outcome will be, as well.
Click to expand...

The yardage numbers were very different, if I remember correctly. Certainly points are all that matter in the end, but LSU did a lot of scoring on defense and special teams, things that aren't very reliable.

I shouldn't cite these numbers because they are through the entire season, but it's all I have. I can't find the numbers through the season up to the Alabama/LSU regular season game. But the season totals:

Alabama total offense: 429.62 ypg
LSU total offense: 355.07

Alabama total defense: 183.62
LSU total offense: 261.5

Alabama first downs per game: 21.54
LSU first downs per game: 19.21

Alabama first downs allowed per game: 10.08
LSU first downs allowed per game: 15.14

Again, points matter most so I give that to you. But to me, the yardage numbers tell the story more clearly because LSU really got a boost in scoring offense by defensive and special teams scores (In fact, those numbers that I just cited are very similar to the same stats so far this season.) I feel like the NC game was more indicative of the true separation between the teams, while the November game was more of an anomaly. Hopefully, this game will follow the separation between the two that has persisted all year long.
 
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