JessN: Auburn wrap-up: Another miracle finish, because Alabama couldn’t finish

TideEngineer08

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The bigger issue we have had is just generally poor play in the month of November the past four years. Since we went undefeated in 2009, we are something like a combined 36-1 in August, September, October, and December (only loss was to South Carolina in 2010), but in that same time period we have only gone 7-5 against BCS conference opponents in November, with two losses to LSU, two losses to Auburn, one loss to A&M, and a slew of ugly wins over poor-to-middling Mississippi State teams. It's kind of a different story every year, but the same general theme: We come out and play some ugly football in November and end up dropping a game or two that we should win, and in the end it costs us dearly. Obviously we've been very fortunate the past two years because we've been able to slip-up and lose in December and then have all the cards fall in our favor such that we can still reach the national championship game, but for obvious reasons that's not going to happen the overwhelming majority of the time, and so it came to pass this season. The current structure makes losing at any point a typically fatal error, but losing late is the ultimate no-no, and we've unfortunately developed a pretty nasty penchant for that as of the past four years.

Not sure if that's something we will improve on or not, but I will say that -- as much as I loathe it as a general proposition -- the institution of the four-team playoff next year will almost certainly help us in that regard. If we've got that system in place this year, the loss to Auburn would be meaningless in terms of the national championship race.
I believe our November woes can be traced to fatigue by the players, opponents are usually the toughest of the year (LSU, Auburn's great teams, and last year's A&M team), and most importantly - IMO - I think our offense stagnates a bit as the year wears on. We get more predictable, and more conservative. When we get to the bowls we've had a month to self-evaluate and refresh and we look unstoppable.
 

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I believe our November woes can be traced to fatigue by the players, opponents are usually the toughest of the year (LSU, Auburn's great teams, and last year's A&M team), and most importantly - IMO - I think our offense stagnates a bit as the year wears on. We get more predictable, and more conservative. When we get to the bowls we've had a month to self-evaluate and refresh and we look unstoppable.
I think you maybe right. It seems from the LSU game on we struggle. It's not just Auburn. It's the month of November and we look fatigued, out of gas and almost uninterested. Maybe the practice regimen needs to be changed. I don't know but it is definitely a pattern.


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JessN

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I think you maybe right. It seems from the LSU game on we struggle. It's not just Auburn. It's the month of November and we look fatigued, out of gas and almost uninterested. Maybe the practice regimen needs to be changed. I don't know but it is definitely a pattern.


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The one caveat to that is someone (TideEngineer08?) mentioned that it wasn't fair to compare LSU and Auburn results. But LSU's winning percentage in the years Alabama has beaten them comes in around 70-75 percent (I think it was 74, I deleted it off the calculator). Auburn is 24-26 in the years Alabama has beaten them. The Auburn teams Alabama is beating right now aren't very good. Meanwhile, the LSU teams and Auburn teams that have beaten UA have similar records. The point being here that it becomes hard to judge just how well Alabama prepared, or what external circumstances were affecting Alabama in the four wins, because Auburn was cumulatively so bad that it wasn't an even match. And AU still took Alabama to the last series in one of those games.
 

TideEngineer08

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The one caveat to that is someone (TideEngineer08?) mentioned that it wasn't fair to compare LSU and Auburn results. But LSU's winning percentage in the years Alabama has beaten them comes in around 70-75 percent (I think it was 74, I deleted it off the calculator). Auburn is 24-26 in the years Alabama has beaten them. The Auburn teams Alabama is beating right now aren't very good. Meanwhile, the LSU teams and Auburn teams that have beaten UA have similar records. The point being here that it becomes hard to judge just how well Alabama prepared, or what external circumstances were affecting Alabama in the four wins, because Auburn was cumulatively so bad that it wasn't an even match. And AU still took Alabama to the last series in one of those games.
I said it wasn't necessarily fair because 2 of Alabama's losses to Auburn came against teams that were a collective 21-1.

Basically, the struggles Alabama has had in November have been against its toughest competition on the schedule, and it's at the end of the year when we're beat up, and I feel our offense gets sort of stuck in the mud as well. And I agree its something that needs to be addressed, but at the end of the day, when you're playing equal competition, it's going to be extremely difficult to win them all or even win 80 percent.
 

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I said it wasn't necessarily fair because 2 of Alabama's losses to Auburn came against teams that were a collective 21-1.

Basically, the struggles Alabama has had in November have been against its toughest competition on the schedule, and it's at the end of the year when we're beat up, and I feel our offense gets sort of stuck in the mud as well. And I agree its something that needs to be addressed, but at the end of the day, when you're playing equal competition, it's going to be extremely difficult to win them all or even win 80 percent.
I would concede this point if the playcalling weren't so damn anemic.
 

JessN

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I said it wasn't necessarily fair because 2 of Alabama's losses to Auburn came against teams that were a collective 21-1.

Basically, the struggles Alabama has had in November have been against its toughest competition on the schedule, and it's at the end of the year when we're beat up, and I feel our offense gets sort of stuck in the mud as well. And I agree its something that needs to be addressed, but at the end of the day, when you're playing equal competition, it's going to be extremely difficult to win them all or even win 80 percent.
Except the collective record of the LSU teams Alabama has beaten is 49-16 (75.4%). If Auburn was putting up similar numbers, people still wouldn't be happy but it wouldn't be seen as a real problem. Somehow he found a way to go 5-3 against an LSU team winning three-quarters of its games but he's never beaten Auburn when Auburn has won 75% of their games. That goes back to his time at LSU, where he was 2-3 against AU. AU had a 15-10 record (60.0%) record in the years that LSU won, and a 27-11 record (71.1%) in years Auburn won the game.
 

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Except the collective record of the LSU teams Alabama has beaten is 49-16 (75.4%). If Auburn was putting up similar numbers, people still wouldn't be happy but it wouldn't be seen as a real problem. Somehow he found a way to go 5-3 against an LSU team winning three-quarters of its games but he's never beaten Auburn when Auburn has won 75% of their games. That goes back to his time at LSU, where he was 2-3 against AU. AU had a 15-10 record (60.0%) record in the years that LSU won, and a 27-11 record (71.1%) in years Auburn won the game.
The combined records of the 3 AU teams that have beaten us is 34-5 (87%) and our combined record in those 3 years is 28-10 (73.6%) This year is the first that we were the team with the better record coming into the game.

As far as being 5-3 with LSU, we are only 5-3 because we got a do-over in 2011. Otherwise, it would be the same record. Even though LSU had the better overall record, only LSU's 2011 team was as good as good as AU's 2010 team, and I'd almost bet the farm that if LSU played AU again this year, AU would win this time around.

In our 5 November losses since 2009, the combined records of the teams that beat us was 60-6 (91%) (LSU 11-2, AU 14-0, LSU 13-1, A&M 11-2, AU 11-1) Our record in that time is 46-6 (88%).

In that stretch, we've got beat by 2 Heisman winners and arguably two of the best players in CFB history, a LSU team that had we not beat in the BCSNCG that would have gone down as one of the best SEC teams ever (they beat 8 ranked teams, including THREE top 5 teams), and an AU team this year that is running the ball almost like the wishbone days and leading FBS in rushing.

At the end of the day, the AU teams that have beat us had a better record than we did as well as the 5 teams that beat us in November.

It sucks losing, and I understand that the raw numbers of losing 5 games in November since 2009 and losing 3 games out of 7 to our biggest rival looks bad. However, at the end of the day, we've lost to AU when they are winning 87% of their games, and lost 5 games to 5 teams winning 91% of their games in November.

These games just happen to all be played in November and the last 2 losses to AU happen when they are 25-1. Considering we've done this ranked #1 - #3 most of the time in that stretch, and getting everybody's best shot game in, game out, I think this is an a awesome record.

If any team in any era has ever fared better, please show me. (I am not directing this at you Jess, I'm just making the point.)

With all that said, I do hope something is tweaked to help give us edge against AU. We really should have won this year, and everybody knows it, including AU. There's a 3 or 4 page thread on ITAT where they are terrified of having play us again in a bowl or the BCSNCG. The most troubling thing about both this game and the 2010 game is how conservative we got as the game went on. In the both games, we came out of the gate on fire. We dominated in 2010 until halftime, and even this year we came on the first drive and marched down the field until the drive stalled and we missed the first FG. They seemed to get tight in the rest of the 1st quarter, but we were on fire in the 2nd quarter. The only game I thought we were just totally flat in was 2009. In 2007, we were overmatched by a much better team. In 2010 and 2013, we came out looking like the much better team until halftime. We seemed to go on vacation after halftime in 2010, but in this game, we just seemed to have made a few too many mistakes, and the playcalling got too vanilla. Either way though, if we make just 1 of the FG's or get 1 yard on 4th and 1, we almost certainly win the game.

Hopefully next time around, the staff will come out super aggressive after halftime, and keep the hammer down. There's definitely things that could have been done better, but I just can't totally buy that CNS has a trend of losing to AU or teams November based on their records. We were beat by great teams winning 91% of their games, and two of those teams loathe us and CNS.
 

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I think you maybe right. It seems from the LSU game on we struggle. It's not just Auburn. It's the month of November and we look fatigued, out of gas and almost uninterested. Maybe the practice regimen needs to be changed. I don't know but it is definitely a pattern.
Yeah. How about reducing the amount of practice time and the number of practice days? And they need a reason to want to go to practice. So how about a double bacon cheeseburger, seasoned fries and chocolate milk shake after each practice? And apple pie. Don't forget the apple pie! That'll help bunches!
 

Atl Joe

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Basically, the struggles Alabama has had in November have been against its toughest competition on the schedule, and it's at the end of the year when we're beat up, and I feel our offense gets sort of stuck in the mud as well. And I agree its something that needs to be addressed, but at the end of the day, when you're playing equal competition, it's going to be extremely difficult to win them all or even win 80 percent.
I would agree with this except the month of November falls on the calendar for Alabama as it does for the rest of the SEC. It is the end of the season for everyone and all are beat up and fatigued.
LSU has Alabama, aTm and Arkansas to contend with. Auburn has UGA and Alabama. Miss. St. has aTm, Alabama and Ole Miss. It is all relative.
This is the reason why recruiting is so important. It is at this time of year when depth and talent (sprinkled with some genuine aggression for your rival players on the other sideline) should win out.
Alabama has the best coach who built this machine, so why the problems keeping it in gear?
 

Bamabuzzard

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Yeah. How about reducing the amount of practice time and the number of practice days? And they need a reason to want to go to practice. So how about a double bacon cheeseburger, seasoned fries and chocolate milk shake after each practice? And apple pie. Don't forget the apple pie! That'll help bunches!
How bout I push this little button right here that gives you some downtime to come up with a better way to express your thoughts before hitting post? Consider this your first and last warning.
 
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TideEngineer08

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I would agree with this except the month of November falls on the calendar for Alabama as it does for the rest of the SEC. It is the end of the season for everyone and all are beat up and fatigued.
LSU has Alabama, aTm and Arkansas to contend with. Auburn has UGA and Alabama. Miss. St. has aTm, Alabama and Ole Miss. It is all relative.
This is the reason why recruiting is so important. It is at this time of year when depth and talent (sprinkled with some genuine aggression for your rival players on the other sideline) should win out.
Alabama has the best coach who built this machine, so why the problems keeping it in gear?
What are those teams' records in November? LSU routinely struggles with Arkansas teams that they should maul. Auburn hasn't been particularly spectacular against us or Georgia, the miracles this year aside.

November is where the rubber meets the road for everyone, and there are few teams in this conference that have a stellar record. Even Tennessee, which has always saved their easiest games for last, struggles against Kentucky and Vanderbilt.

My point is not just that we're beat up... it's also that we're playing our toughest competition, we have a massive target on our backs, and most importantly IMO we grow stagnant on offense.

All in all though, if any adjustments are needed, they are minor. They will be made, however, because we employ the best coach in the country and there is no close second.
 
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Bamabuzzard

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What are those teams' records in November? LSU routinely struggles with Arkansas teams that they should maul. Auburn hasn't been particularly spectacular against us or Georgia, the miracles this year aside.

November is where the rubber meets the road for everyone, and there are few teams in this conference that have a stellar record. Even Tennessee, which has always saved their easiest games for last, struggles against Kentucky and Vanderbilt.

My point is not just that we're beat up... it's also that we're playing our toughest competition, we have a massive target on our backs, and most importantly IMO we grow stagnant on offense.

All in all though, if any adjustments are needed, they are minor. They will be made, however, because we employ the best coach in the country and there is no close second.

I'm pretty certain by November mental and physical fatigue has set in for everybody. That is why I suggested if maybe altering something during the practice weeks of November would help alleviate this problem. I know a lot of NFL teams scale back on a lot of the physically taxing exercises as the season wears to keep players from being fatigued during the home stretch of the season. I don't know. But you're right with your assessment. When we get to November it's like we're running on empty.
 

imauafan

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I think you maybe right. It seems from the LSU game on we struggle. It's not just Auburn. It's the month of November and we look fatigued, out of gas and almost uninterested. Maybe the practice regimen needs to be changed. I don't know but it is definitely a pattern.


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I've noticed this and have discussed it offline with some folks. Not only do we appear to be a tired team every year in November we also seem to have more injuries than other teams. Some of those injuries appear to happen in practice. Perhaps letting off the gas a bit in practice and more/better substitutions during games would serve us well during the final stretch of the season.
 

Bamabuzzard

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I've noticed this and have discussed it offline with some folks. Not only do we appear to be a tired team every year in November we also seem to have more injuries than other teams. Some of those injuries appear to happen in practice. Perhaps letting off the gas a bit in practice and more/better substitutions during games would serve us well during the final stretch of the season.
I noticed Gary Danielson said that Auburn has 10 defensive linemen they substitute in and out during games. I don't think we do that.
 

NationalTitles18

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I'm pretty certain by November mental and physical fatigue has set in for everybody. That is why I suggested if maybe altering something during the practice weeks of November would help alleviate this problem. I know a lot of NFL teams scale back on a lot of the physically taxing exercises as the season wears to keep players from being fatigued during the home stretch of the season. I don't know. But you're right with your assessment. When we get to November it's like we're running on empty.
auburn has a definite advantage the last week of November without having to worry about final exams and all. :D
 

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I'd like for Bama to have an open week before Auburn. That would give the players a couple more days rest and more prep time for Auburn. I see that as more important than an early season open date before aTm. Auburn had their 2 weeks to prepare for Bama.


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imauafan

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I noticed Gary Danielson said that Auburn has 10 defensive linemen they substitute in and out during games. I don't think we do that.
I've always been bothered by our lack of substitutions, some positions more than others. That is something that I have commented on a few times over the years on this forum.
 

RTR91

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I noticed Gary Danielson said that Auburn has 10 defensive linemen they substitute in and out during games. I don't think we do that.
We substitute our players but not to the extent Auburn does. They did the same thing against A&M, and it worked just as well.

Hopefully, CNS and CKS saw that and decide to do something similar. Along with making the defense less-player-specific, they should rotate the DLs and/or the LBs as a group rather than individual players.
 

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