Israel launches preemptive attacks against Iran (US bombs Iran)...

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bamamc1

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You think Israel had no reason? The non-state proxy partners alone could be reason, imagine Hamas or Hezbollah or even the Houthis with a tactical nuclear weapon. I agree with the sentiment that Iran should never have Nuclear weapons. Their actions could be justified in that sense, Im just not sure about a continued war or regime change in Tehran and would that would mean for the region.
Exactly. Who funds these terror organizations? Iran. Who attacked Israel on October 7th. Hamas.
 
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81usaf92

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FWIW, Israel was also helping to fund Hamas on Oct 7 through Qatar
Adding to the fact is that Netanyahu’s regime knew of the Hamas attack for months and chose to do nothing. It’s amazing how every time his popularity is in the toliet, Israel all of the sudden has some “preemptive strike” to boost it back up.

Also if we are having a “get back” from 2 years ago then where’s ours for the Saudis actively turning a blind eye on Osama and the majority of the hijackers. It’s really a weak argument considering that in the time in between Israel has targeted Iranian government and military officials in other countries. The reason this is happening now is because Netanyahu is at a 70% disapproval rating and only 56% of his party agrees with the war in Gaza. This has very little to do with nuclear weapons and Israeli safety. This is about maintaining political power by a war mongering zealot.
 

TIDE-HSV

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The more I think about it, I'm not sure that even we have the ability to take out the enrichment facility at Fordrow. The estimated penetration depth of the MOP is 200'. It weighs 32,000 lb. 80% of its weight is in the casing, so it's obvious that the penetration is largely gravity (it's launched from high altitude). The Iranians have tunneled into a mountain, so there's bound to be far more than 200' to penetrate. I'm sure DOD knows what the slope of the mountain is at the entrance. We could possibly make it pretty miserable for them, if we could drop it near the entrance and collapse the access tunnel. Forget skipping it in. That would do away with the weight the penetration is based on...
 

81usaf92

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Politico’s takes

Even if the regime falls, there’s no reason to be certain that something better will replace it, current and former officials warn. A failed, leaderless Iranian state could be a breeding ground for all sorts of new problems. A much more militarized autocracy also could take over, one unabashedly determined to obtain a nuclear weapon.

“History tells us it can always be worse,” Jonathan Panikoff, a former U.S. intelligence officer, wrote in an online analysis. “Israel might find itself in a perpetual, ongoing, and far more intense war that is no longer in the shadows, as it has been for years.”
 

bamamc1

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Politico’s takes

Even if the regime falls, there’s no reason to be certain that something better will replace it, current and former officials warn. A failed, leaderless Iranian state could be a breeding ground for all sorts of new problems. A much more militarized autocracy also could take over, one unabashedly determined to obtain a nuclear weapon.

“History tells us it can always be worse,” Jonathan Panikoff, a former U.S. intelligence officer, wrote in an online analysis. “Israel might find itself in a perpetual, ongoing, and far more intense war that is no longer in the shadows, as it has been for years.”
So there could be some other regime shouting “Death to Israel and Death to America” and it would be okay? If those lunatics have access to a Nuclear Weapon then it’s game over. People can call me a “MAGAT” all they want on here (which is against tidefans rules) fine. This same bunch of lunatics killed over 600 US Service Men and Women in the Gulf wars by EED’s developed by the lunatic that we killed by drone strike leaving the airport in Iraq. I happen to be related to two that lost limbs and there’s several thousand more because of that POC.
 

jthomas666

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Politico’s takes

Even if the regime falls, there’s no reason to be certain that something better will replace it, current and former officials warn. A failed, leaderless Iranian state could be a breeding ground for all sorts of new problems. A much more militarized autocracy also could take over, one unabashedly determined to obtain a nuclear weapon.
See Al Quaeda for details.
 

crimsonaudio

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AWRTR

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Not liking where this seems to be heading.

View attachment 51241
From what I can understand there is one nuclear facility 90 feet underground and surrounded by a concrete bunker that Israel can’t eliminate. I won’t be shocked if one US sortie with a couple of B2’s take it out in the end. Not saying that’s what we should do just that I think it’s a real possibility if Iran doesn’t give it up willingly.
 
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Tidewater

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Not liking where this seems to be heading.

View attachment 51241
In the film Braveheart, Edward Longshanks tells his son, "We will move Irish conscripts here, Welsh archers will march up there, and on that spot, Flemish mercenary troops will land."
His son says, "It will take weeks to organize all these units!"
Longshanks responds, "I sent the orders weeks ago when I sent your wife to negotiate with Wallace."

Similar things going on here. As the tweet says, "This gives the president options." It does not commit him to action, not yet.
In the intelligence realm, if your opponent has the capability of doing X, he may have the intention of doing X. If your opponent does not have the capability to do X, he obviously does not have the intent of doing X. This move signals capability.
 

81usaf92

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So either Trump has the most idiotic and deceitful people in charge or both him and Bibi are manufacturing a war to gain political points. I suppose both could be true at the same time but if Tulsi’s testimony is to be taken at face value… then there is no way Iran was as close to obtaining a nuclear weapon as both Trump and BiBi are saying. But Trump’s initial reactions seems that he and his administration weren’t in favor of the strikes because of the intelligence that they had. IDK but this seems like another Iraq 2003 brewing.


BBC reports


The Israeli military said it had accumulated intelligence showing that "concrete progress" had been made "in the Iranian regime's efforts to produce weapons components adapted for a nuclear bomb", including a uranium metal core and a neutron source initiator for triggering the nuclear explosion.
Kelsey Davenport, director for non-proliferation policy at the US-based Arms Control Association, said Israel's prime minister "did not present any clear or compelling evidence that Iran was on the brink of weaponizing".
"Iran has been at a near-zero breakout for months," she told the BBC, referring to the time it would take Iran to acquire enough fissile material for one bomb if it chose to do so.
"Similarly, the assessment that Iran could develop a crude nuclear weapon within a few months is not new."
She said some of Iran's nuclear activities would be applicable to developing a bomb, but US intelligence agencies had assessed that Iran was not engaged in key weaponization work.
This March, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told Congress that Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium was "at its highest levels" and "unprecedented for a state without nuclear weapons".
But she also said the US intelligence community "continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader [Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei has not authorised the nuclear weapons programme that he suspended in 2003".
"If Netanyahu was purely motivated by Iran's proliferation risk, Israel would likely have shared that intelligence with the United States and the initial attack would likely have targeted all of Iran's key nuclear facilities," Ms Davenport added.
Last week, the IAEA said in its latest quarterly report that Iran had amassed enough uranium enriched up to 60% purity - a short, technical step away from weapons grade, or 90% - to potentially make nine nuclear bombs. That was "a matter of serious concern", given the proliferation risks, it added.”
 
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81usaf92

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So independent intelligence sources says Iran currently is 3 years away at best if they resume their nuclear development from developing a usable weapon…. That doesn’t even take in account for the means of transporting or launching one.

But this is the guy we are listening to???

2013


Netanyahu has constantly said things like “Iran is weeks away”, “months away”, or are close, but every non Israeli source consistently says otherwise. To include 2 Trump administrations. We are being led into a war by an unpopular Jewish war mongerer.
 
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