Russia Invades Ukraine XVIII

jthomas666

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I don't hate seeing Russia's nose getting bloodied here - I rather like it when the bad guy gets it. But Russia is still really dangerous (ignoring nukes for the moment).

The response will be interesting. I just hope cooler heads prevail wrt NATO and the west's involvement.
I just think it's hilarious that when Trump and Vance were insulting Zelensky in the White House, Zelensky was looking back at them knowing that most of the planning for this op had already been completed.

Well played, sir!

ETA: Drones: The Gift that Keeps on Giving!!

 
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Tidewater

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I have been studying Russia and Russians since 1981.
This 11:00 video packs as much info into a small space as any similar source as I have seen.
Kissin is an ethnic Russia whose family emigrated when he was quite young.
His comments on the cultural differences between Americans and Russians are insightful.
Americans are hopelessly optimistic and think the best of others.
Russians will not tolerate weakness and the chaos that comes with weak leaders. They will tolerate any abuse by a leader as long as he is not weak and does not tolerate chaos.
 

Huckleberry

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Ukraine’s Warning to the World’s Other Military Forces
Expensive planes, tanks, and ships can be destroyed on the cheap.

Relying on its own resources, Ukraine has just carried out what might be the most complex, elaborately planned, and cost-effective military operation of its current war with Russia. Yesterday, the Ukrainians used drones to attack, almost simultaneously, at least four Russian airfields separated by thousands of miles. Among them were two airfields just inside Russia, but the targets also included Olenya air base, above the Arctic Circle, and, remarkably, Belaya air base, in Siberia, which lies just over the border from Mongolia.

The attack showed how much audacity, ingenuity, and effectiveness the Ukrainians can bring to their own defense when Western leaders aren’t pressuring them to hold back. It also revealed the vulnerability of the large, expensive planes and other hardware treasured by major powers around the world.
 

Bamaro

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Ukraine strikes bridge connecting Russia to Crimea with underwater explosives

“The Security Service of Ukraine carried out a new unique special operation and struck the Crimean Bridge for the third time – this time underwater!” the SBU wrote on Telegram.

The operation came after the SBU on Sunday launched an audacious air raid on Russia’s fleet of nuclear-capable strategic bombers.

The SBU said its agents had mined the piers of the road-and-rail Crimean Bridge, also called the Kerch Bridge, and detonated the first explosive at 4.44 a.m. Tuesday. The whole operation had taken several months, it added.
Ukraine strikes Crimean Bridge with underwater explosives
 

4Q Basket Case

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Peter Zeihan has a video out on this attack. Right now, it's subscriber only, but should be released onto YouTube in a week or so. Even then, I can't link it because as he's bad to do there's a definite non-TF word in the middle of it. Still, if you aren't offended by that, it's really instructive.

Zeihan says this is the biggest blow to the Russian air force since WWII. And it benefits America about as much as it does the Ukrainians. Says the numbers he's getting are at least 40 strategic bombers destroyed. He's seeing some estimates well north of that, but 40 is the lowest total.

That's about a third of their strategic strike force and they don't have the production capacity to replace them in the foreseeable future. Even if they did have the capacity, they no longer have the technological know-how to execute.

Two interesting notes: First, these planes were built during the cold war to attack the US. While they're occasionally used in Ukraine, that's not their real design.

Second, the bases where they were attacked are WAY inside Russia. Like thousands of miles from Ukraine. The Ukrainians somehow got flatbed trucks within the drones’ striking distance, and launched from there. I don't know the range of the drones used, but it can't have been terribly long. Which means the trucks also had to be way inside Russia.

Which points to either (1) a massive security breakdown, or it seems more likely to me, (2) the Ukrainians had inside help.

A great analogy I read somewhere: "It's a lot more efficient to kill the archer than it is trying to intercept all the arrows."

If you don't mind a bad word, be on the lookout for Zeihan's video on YouTube.
 
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Tidewater

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Its On A Slab

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I like how I'm seeing in the media that this is Russia's Pearl Harbor.

Oh yeah, it's the same thing. We invaded Japan, unprovoked, created several puppet regimes, took over Okinawa because it was "ours in the 1st place". Bombed civilian areas of Tokyo and other major cities, indiscriminately. But then them rascally Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor. :D

In reality, it's just another example of Russia's "finding out".
 

Tidewater

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I like how I'm seeing in the media that this is Russia's Pearl Harbor.

Oh yeah, it's the same thing. We invaded Japan, unprovoked, created several puppet regimes, took over Okinawa because it was "ours in the 1st place". Bombed civilian areas of Tokyo and other major cities, indiscriminately. But then them rascally Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor. :D

In reality, it's just another example of Russia's "finding out".
I read a story (about historical illiteracy) in which a woman went to visit the Smithsonian exhibit on the nose of the Enola Gay and Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
One woman's comment in the visitors' book said, "No wonder the Japansese bombed Pearl Harbor, after all, we had nuked Hiroshima and Nagasaki." Turns out she went through the exhibit backwards, starting at the exit and ending at the start of the exhibit.
 

4Q Basket Case

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I read a story (about historical illiteracy) in which a woman went to visit the Smithsonian exhibit on the nose of the Enola Gay and Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
One woman's comment in the visitors' book said, "No wonder the Japansese bombed Pearl Harbor, after all, we had nuked Hiroshima and Nagasaki." Turns out she went through the exhibit backwards, starting at the exit and ending at the start of the exhibit.
Some years ago, Mrs. Basket Case and I were on a small tour through the Normandy beaches. One of the other tour members was a woman who was about 30 at the time.

She absolutely could not understand why in the world the Americans would invade France — after all, they’re our friends.

I am not making that up.
 

UAH

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Peter Zeihan has a video out on this attack. Right now, it's subscriber only, but should be released onto YouTube in a week or so. Even then, I can't link it because as he's bad to do there's a definite non-TF word in the middle of it. Still, if you aren't offended by that, it's really instructive.

Zeihan says this is the biggest blow to the Russian air force since WWII. And it benefits America about as much as it does the Ukrainians. Says the numbers he's getting are at least 40 strategic bombers destroyed. He's seeing some estimates well north of that, but 40 is the lowest total.

That's about a third of their strategic strike force and they don't have the production capacity or to replace them in the foreseeable future. Even if they did have the capacity, they no longer have the technological know-how to execute.

Two interesting notes: First, these planes were built during the cold war to attack the US. While they're occasionally used in Ukraine, that's not their real design.

Second, the bases where they were attacked are WAY inside Russia. Like thousands of miles from Ukraine. The Ukrainians somehow got flatbed trucks within the drone's striking distance, and launched from there. I don't know the range of the drones used, but it can't have been terribly long. Which means the trucks also had to be way inside Russia.

Which points to either (1) a massive security breakdown, or it seems more likely to me, (2) the Ukrainians had inside help.

A great analogy I read somewhere: "It's a lot more efficient to kill the archer than it is trying to intercept all the arrows."

If you don't mind a bad word, be on the lookout for Zeihan's video on YouTube.
One regular on Kyiv Post this morning said that the drones went throught normal shipping channels and were delivered to destinations by Russian drivers. The containers opened on signal and the drones were individually piloted to their targets. I believe it was stated that the containers were destroyed by signal after the attack.

 

Its On A Slab

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Some years ago, Mrs. Basket Case and I were on a small tour through the Normandy beaches. One of the other tour members was a woman who was about 30 at the time.

She absolutely could not understand why in the world the Americans would invade France — after all, they’re our friends.

I am not making that up.
One of my whitewater kayaking buddies was a young(ish) girl in her late 20s. She and her guy had just come back from a beer tour in Belgium.

She was appalled at all the American flags that she saw in places like Bastogne. I looked at her and asked, "Do you know anything about World War 2 and what Bastogne meant to it?"

The reason the world is in its current state is that there aren't enough people alive today that remember what happened the last time we let fascist dictators do as they please.
 

Tidewater

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The Young Turks were wondering what the effect of the Ukrainian attacks would be on peace talks.
The Kremlin will launch a barrage of missiles against Kyiv, Lviv, and Odessa, kill a few hundred Ukrainans, then say, "Okay, let's talk."
 
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bamamc1

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One of my whitewater kayaking buddies was a young(ish) girl in her late 20s. She and her guy had just come back from a beer tour in Belgium.

She was appalled at all the American flags that she saw in places like Bastogne. I looked at her and asked, "Do you know anything about World War 2 and what Bastogne meant to it?"

The reason the world is in its current state is that there aren't enough people alive today that remember what happened the last time we let fascist dictators do as they please.
My just graduated from high school daughter and I watch the entire Band of Brothers series each Memorial Day and have for the past 3 years. What those men endured at Bastogne was unbelievable to say the very least.
 

Its On A Slab

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One regular on Kyiv Post this morning said that the drones went throught normal shipping channels and were delivered to destinations by Russian drivers. The containers opened on signal and the drones were individually piloted to their targets. I believe it was stated that the containers were destroyed by signal after the attack.


This sounds like a Mossad operation. So well planned and ingenious.
 
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