Russia Invades Ukraine XVIII

[TIDE-HSV]

Germany's Merz says there are no more range restrictions on the weapons supplied to Ukraine

Friedrich Merz has plunged into diplomatic efforts to try to secure a ceasefire and keep Western support for Ukraine intact since becoming Germany’s leader nearly three weeks ago.

apnews.com

Promptly criticized by the Kremlin...

 

[crimsonaudio]

Promptly criticized by the Kremlin...

Of course - how dare the Ukrainians do to the Russkies as the Russkies have done to them!

 

[Tidewater]

The Russians agree to more talks.
Russia suggests new peace talks with Ukraine to be scheduled in Istanbul
Here are their positions:
no deal would be considered without committing to NATO halting eastward expansion, which would prevent Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova from ever entering the alliance. The demands also included the removal of current sanctions on Russia by Western countries, unfreezing Russian assets, and protecting “Russian-speaking Ukrainians.”

 

[crimsonaudio]

The Russians agree to more talks.
Russia suggests new peace talks with Ukraine to be scheduled in Istanbul
Here are there positions:
no deal would be considered without committing to NATO halting eastward expansion, which would prevent Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova from ever entering the alliance. The demands also included the removal of current sanctions on Russia by Western countries, unfreezing Russian assets, and protecting “Russian-speaking Ukrainians.”

Great, so just agree to never expand NATO then re-arm Ukraine and do whatever you want - that's how Putin works.

I've never understood the insistence that we have to play by rules that people like Putin refuse to. You want to play dirty? Let's play dirty.

 

[Huckleberry]

https://defence-blog.com/explosions-reported-at-russian-nuclear-sub-base/

Explosions reported at Russian nuclear sub base

Explosions and rising smoke were reported on Sunday in Severomorsk, Russia—the home port of the Northern Fleet and one of the most strategically sensitive military sites in the country.

Located on the Kola Bay near the Barents Sea, Severomorsk is the primary base for Russia’s nuclear-powered submarine fleet and houses two-thirds of its nuclear-armed platforms. Among them are advanced submarines such as the Yasen-, Oscar II-, and Sierra II-class, as well as various special-purpose underwater assets.

Details remain scarce, but the scale and location of the incident point to an operation consistent with recent Ukrainian sabotage and deep-strike campaigns.

 

[Huckleberry]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1929144749924991151

Ukraine launches the largest attack against the Russian Air Force of this war.

Drones smuggled into Russia have struck Russia’s strategic bombers at airfields deep in Russia.

Up to 40 planes destroyed, including several A-50 (AEW&C) & Tu-95 & Tu-22 long-range bombers

 

[crimsonaudio]

More info:

According to the Wall Street Journal, today’s large-scale drone attack by Ukraine against airbases across Russia, dubbed Operation Spiderweb, which is claimed to have destroyed over 40 long-range strategic bombers and other military aircraft, took over a year and a half to prepare by the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU).

Ukrainian intelligence officials said the SBU smuggled dozens of small quadcopter drones into Russia, before then moving wooden containers into the country, which were used to hide the drones ahead of the operation against the Russian Air Force. When it came time to strike, the containers were placed on trucks and driven to locations close to each airbase, then the lids of the containers were opened remotely and the swarm of drones flew out to find their targets, most of which were Tu-95MS or Tu-22M3 Long-Range Strategic Bombers.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1929218420555317632

 

[Huckleberry]

Ukraine claims drone attack hit 40 Russian bombers as talks set to resume in Turkey

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was sending a Ukrainian delegation to Istanbul for another face-to-face with Russian representatives.

www.cbsnews.com

Ukraine claims drone attack hit 40 Russian bombers as talks set to resume in Turkey
...

The drones hit airfields including the Belaya air base in Russia's Irkutsk region, more than 2,500 miles from Ukraine. It is the first time that a Ukrainian drone has been seen in the region, local Gov. Igor Kobzev told AP, stressing that it did not present a threat to civilians.

While White House spokespeople declined to comment on the attack, administration sources told CBS News on Sunday that the White House was not aware it was coming.



No kidding. Otherwise, it likely wouldn't have been a success or a surprise.

 

[crimsonaudio]

30% or more of the Russian Air Force’s fleet of long-range nuclear-capable strategic bombers were reportedly damaged and/or destroyed during today’s operation by the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU), in what Russian milbloggers are calling “Russia’s Pearl Harbor”

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1929204143295500591

 

[Tidewater]

30% or more of the Russian Air Force’s fleet of long-range nuclear-capable strategic bombers were reportedly damaged and/or destroyed during today’s operation by the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU), in what Russian milbloggers are calling “Russia’s Pearl Harbor”

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1929204143295500591

Great. Gen. Buck Turgidson says now is the time to launch a first strike. As for US casualties, "with adequate prcautions, ten, twenty million, tops."
Gen Jack Ripper says, "Wing attack, Plan R as in Robert."

 

[crimsonaudio]

Great. Gen. Buck Turgidson says now is the time to launch a first strike. As for US casualties, "with adequate prcautions, ten, twenty million, tops."
Gen Jack Ripper says, "Wing attack, Plan R as in Robert."

I fear Russia's response will be equally drastic.

 

[Tidewater]

I fear Russia's response will be equally drastic.

One of two things is now happening in the Kremlin:
1. The Russians are embarrassed and angry but not worried because they know NATO will never launch a nuclear first strike against Russia.
2. They really do believe NATO would launch a first strike and they have lost a significant portion of their triad (and this would be the time when Russia would launch a nuclear first strike if a significant portion of NATO's triad were destroyed). Further, given the wonders of Russian preventive maintenance, they are really worried that their submarines and ICBMs won't work as intended.

 

[crimsonaudio]

One of two things is now happening in the Kremlin:
1. The Russians are embarrassed and angry but not worried because they know NATO will never launch a nuclear first strike against Russia.
2. They really do believe NATO would launch a first strike and they have lost a significant portion of their triad (and that is when Russia would launch a nuclear first strike). Further, given the wonders of Russian preventive maintenance, they are really worried that their submarines and ICBMs won't work as intended.

I don't hate seeing Russia's nose getting bloodied here - I rather like it when the bad guy gets it. But Russia is still really dangerous (ignoring nukes for the moment).

The response will be interesting. I just hope cooler heads prevail wrt NATO and the west's involvement.

 

[Huckleberry]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1929326445895045494

Another Ukrainian drone swarm is striking targets in Russia’s Kursk region

 

[Bamaro]

I guess trump was wrong. Zelinsky does have some cards.

 

[Tidewater]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1929326445895045494

Another Ukrainian drone swarm is striking targets in Russia’s Kursk region

Not sure how these SBU guys are getting into Russia, but they sure are causing the Russians problems.

 

[Its On A Slab]

Not sure how these SBU guys are getting into Russia, but they sure are causing the Russians problems.

You have to think they are getting some help inside. I hope the general population isn't completely duped by the half-baked propaganda being spewed out of the Kremlin daily, and on Russian media.

 

[Tidewater]

I fear Russia's response will be equally drastic.

But much less discriminate.
The Russians will clobber civilian areas of Lviv or something like that.

 

[Tidewater]

You have to think they are getting some help inside. I hope the general population isn't completely duped by the half-baked propaganda being spewed out of the Kremlin daily, and on Russian media.

Could well be.
The problem with a propaganda narrative enforced by the threat fo force is you never really know what people really think.
Everybody must publicly tout the party line. Inside their heads they may have other thoughts, but nobody dares vocalise those for fear of arrest or murder.
Thus, for the Kremlin it is really difficult to know how many people really believe the propaganda or just are keeping their mouths shut.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Could well be.
The problem with a propaganda narrative enforced by the threat fo force is you never really know what people really think.
Everybody must publicly tout the party line. Inside their heads they may have other thoughts, but nobody dares vocalise those for fear of arrest or murder.
Thus, for the Kremlin it is really difficult to know how many people really believe the propaganda or just are keeping their mouths shut.

Keep your head down and remain apolitical has been the best means of survival there for generations...