The 2024 Presidential Election

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selmaborntidefan

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Look, I don't know how to interpret any of it - and polls now tend to be meaningless but hey, people live their lives by them, right?

This - to me - is a substantially bigger problem the Republicans have than ANY problem the Democrats have right now (setting aside the obvious):

FEC Filing:
The Republican National Committee has just $9,956,381 cash on hand.

END OF NOVEMBER EACH YEAR
2016 $21,354,030
2017 $39,838,889
2018 $27,008,324
2019 $63,233,392
2020 $58,777,814
2021 $65,468,902
2022 $17,275,601

2023 $9,956,381
 

jthomas666

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Interesting:


Let’s start with the latest NYT/Sienna poll released this week: the lead story ran “Poll Finds Wide Disapproval of Biden on Gaza, and Little Room to Shift Gears.” Not good! Indeed, not simply the article but the poll itself includes lots of ominous or at least troubling news for President Biden. But there’s one detail that didn’t make it into the story: Among likely voters, Biden actually led Trump by two percentage points.
 

JDCrimson

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Still paying Trump's legal expenses I see. They wont be able to provide much support down ballot with this trend. If Trump manages to get elected and the Democrats control Congress, he probably gets impeached again and it may be a toss up that he gets convicted.

Look, I don't know how to interpret any of it - and polls now tend to be meaningless but hey, people live their lives by them, right?

This - to me - is a substantially bigger problem the Republicans have than ANY problem the Democrats have right now (setting aside the obvious):

FEC Filing:
The Republican National Committee has just $9,956,381 cash on hand.

END OF NOVEMBER EACH YEAR
2016 $21,354,030
2017 $39,838,889
2018 $27,008,324
2019 $63,233,392
2020 $58,777,814
2021 $65,468,902
2022 $17,275,601

2023 $9,956,381
 

CrimsonJazz

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Look, I don't know how to interpret any of it - and polls now tend to be meaningless but hey, people live their lives by them, right?

This - to me - is a substantially bigger problem the Republicans have than ANY problem the Democrats have right now (setting aside the obvious):

FEC Filing:
The Republican National Committee has just $9,956,381 cash on hand.

END OF NOVEMBER EACH YEAR
2016 $21,354,030
2017 $39,838,889
2018 $27,008,324
2019 $63,233,392
2020 $58,777,814
2021 $65,468,902
2022 $17,275,601

2023 $9,956,381
I saw this earlier today. All that tells me is that GOP donations are way down because voters don’t trust them anymore and I can’t blame them. I’m betting donations to individual candidates are actually up. The GOP has proven time and time again that they give less than a damn about their constituency (and specifically the issues they care about.)
 

selmaborntidefan

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I saw this earlier today. All that tells me is that GOP donations are way down because voters don’t trust them anymore and I can’t blame them. I’m betting donations to individual candidates are actually up. The GOP has proven time and time again that they give less than a damn about their constituency (and specifically the issues they care about.)
Let's see, a party that:
- took 15 (??) ballots to get a Speaker
- threw him overboard later on in an internal GOP war between the spineless and the trafficker
- replaced him with an even bigger moron as though that was easily done
- proposed to impeach Biden for....well, nothing....
- and held up military promotions all year.....
- while having a guy with 91 indictments and already guilty of fraudulent business per a judge leading
- while his former attorney just got socked with a judgment and filed Trumpruptcy
- and has somehow become an apologist for Russia...
....

that party is having trouble raising money?

You don't say.
 

TIDE-HSV

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Still paying Trump's legal expenses I see. They wont be able to provide much support down ballot with this trend. If Trump manages to get elected and the Democrats control Congress, he probably gets impeached again and it may be a toss up that he gets convicted.
I see no way the Democrats can muster 60 votes to convict...
 
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CrimsonJazz

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Let's see, a party that:
- took 15 (??) ballots to get a Speaker
- threw him overboard later on in an internal GOP war between the spineless and the trafficker
- replaced him with an even bigger moron as though that was easily done
- proposed to impeach Biden for....well, nothing....
- and held up military promotions all year.....
- while having a guy with 91 indictments and already guilty of fraudulent business per a judge leading
- while his former attorney just got socked with a judgment and filed Trumpruptcy
- and has somehow become an apologist for Russia...
....

that party is having trouble raising money?

You don't say.
All true, but have you noticed that the DNC doesn’t have this problem despite the fact that there is literally no such thing as a democrat who isn’t a self-loathing moron? I mean honestly, what the hell?
 

selmaborntidefan

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All true, but have you noticed that the DNC doesn’t have this problem
Whether you agree with them or not, the Democratic Party has some issues that they're actually "for."
Right now, the GOP can tell you they're in favor of something at 9am, but if Jim Jones II tells declares the opposite true, they're telling you by lunch that they've done a 180 to match whatever he says.

It isn't hard for me to understand why the GOP has this problem. What's truly amazing is they NEVER ever had this problem before - not when the Democrats made up 54% of the national electorate (as in 1968), not during Watergate, not during Iran-Contra, not during impeachment.

They only developed this problem when they handed the entire party over to a lunatic.


despite the fact that there is literally no such thing as a democrat who isn’t a self-loathing moron? I mean honestly, what the hell?
I'm going to assume this is trolling.
 

92tide

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😆


The notion that the former president stinks isn't a new one. Actress Kathy Griffin has described Trump as smelling similar to "body odor with kind of like a scent of makeup products." But the idea gained steam recently when former Republican congressman Adam Kinzinger (R-IL-Ret.), who said earlier this year that he was worried Trump was "going insane," raised the issue on social media.
 
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selmaborntidefan

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Just a few Boxing Day thoughts here:

1) Biden has several advantages regardless of what any poll says.
a) he's not facing a legitimate primary opponent of any kind
b) he's the incumbent, who always has the advantage of showing up and playing Santa Claus to announce a new federal money giveaway to some key city in a swing state
c) the GOP is maddeningly incoherent and being held hostage by a nut
d) STATISTICALLY, the economy is doing well (ofttimes this gradually coalesces in favor of the incumbent, almost by osmosis - "hey, things are going pretty good")
e) the GOP WILL have a primary of some sort

2) Polls at this point TEND to be largely the reflection of the fact almost nobody pays attention

All of the hand-wringing and worrying won't matter come next summer. Remember, at this time in 2007, Hillary and Rudi were going to be the nominees. Bush couldn't lose the 92 election as late as January 1992 (and yes, Clinton was in THIRD in June right after winning the nomination, too). Gary Hart re-entered the race in December 1987 - and rose right to the top of the polls because nobody knew the other candidates nationally. Carter couldn't beat Kennedy, and Reagan couldn't beat either, one at this point in 1979. The Democrats couldn't lose this thing in December 1987 (right after the market crash) because Bush was a wimp.

Biden might actually be in some trouble - if Donald Trump was completely out of the picture.

Could it all change?
Sure, it can change overnight.
 

JDCrimson

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If Haley somehow ended up the GOP nominee, I think Biden would be in trouble. I do think if there was some generational difference among the candidates, i think the nation would swing significantly with the younger candidate.

Trump is the nursing home resident that yells at everyone, throws his food, craps in his britches. Whereas, Biden might be the resident who is sneaking into the ladies rooms at night, sits in the craft room telling big stories, playing checkers - nursing home version of Andy Dufrense.

Just a few Boxing Day thoughts here:

1) Biden has several advantages regardless of what any poll says.
a) he's not facing a legitimate primary opponent of any kind
b) he's the incumbent, who always has the advantage of showing up and playing Santa Claus to announce a new federal money giveaway to some key city in a swing state
c) the GOP is maddeningly incoherent and being held hostage by a nut
d) STATISTICALLY, the economy is doing well (ofttimes this gradually coalesces in favor of the incumbent, almost by osmosis - "hey, things are going pretty good")
e) the GOP WILL have a primary of some sort

2) Polls at this point TEND to be largely the reflection of the fact almost nobody pays attention

All of the hand-wringing and worrying won't matter come next summer. Remember, at this time in 2007, Hillary and Rudi were going to be the nominees. Bush couldn't lose the 92 election as late as January 1992 (and yes, Clinton was in THIRD in June right after winning the nomination, too). Gary Hart re-entered the race in December 1987 - and rose right to the top of the polls because nobody knew the other candidates nationally. Carter couldn't beat Kennedy, and Reagan couldn't beat either, one at this point in 1979. The Democrats couldn't lose this thing in December 1987 (right after the market crash) because Bush was a wimp.

Biden might actually be in some trouble - if Donald Trump was completely out of the picture.

Could it all change?
Sure, it can change overnight.
 

selmaborntidefan

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If Haley somehow ended up the GOP nominee, I think Biden would be in trouble. I do think if there was some generational difference among the candidates, i think the nation would swing significantly with the younger candidate.
I tend to agree with this, but the party ain't over doing crazy yet.

It was somehow okay for Bob Dole, George Bush, and Barry Goldwater to tell Nixon, "Look dude, you're gonna have to leave," and it was somehow okay for David Durenberger and Dole to dress down Reagan over Iran-Contra. Hell, it was okay for McCain to register disagreement with Dubya over how Iraq was done.

But as long as the biggest sissy we've ever elected continues to act like the (almost a) male version of the Glenn Close character in "Fatal Attraction" combined with the psychotic musings of Ted Bundy AND HIS PARTY ENABLES IT, Biden needs to pull a McKinley and just sit on his front porch. If I was him, I 100% would not debate Trump, I'd tell him, "Let's see you go into a jury chair and act like the tough fool you pretend to be otherwise."

Haley and Christie are about to play the roles of Rubio and Cruz all over again and split the "we don't really want Trump" vote.
 

Go Bama

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December 26, 2023 (Tuesday)

On December 26, 1991, the New York Times ran a banner headline: “Gorbachev, Last Soviet Leader, Resigns; U.S. Recognizes Republics’ Independence.” On December 25, Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev had resigned, marking the end of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, often referred to as the Soviet Union or USSR.

Former Soviet republics had begun declaring their independence in March 1990, the Warsaw Pact linking the USSR’s Eastern European satellites into a defense treaty dissolved by July 1991, and by December 1991 the movement had gathered enough power that Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine joined together in a “union treaty” as their leaders announced they were creating a new Commonwealth of Independent States. When almost all the other Soviet republics announced on December 21 that they were joining the new alliance, Gorbachev could either try to hold the USSR together by force or step down. He chose to step down, handing power to the president of the Russian Federation, Boris Yeltsin.

The dissolution of the USSR meant the end of the Cold War, and those Americans who had come to define the world as a fight between the dark forces of communism and the good forces of capitalism believed their ideology had triumphed. Two years ago, Gorbachev said that with the collapse of the Soviet Union, "They grew arrogant and self-confident. They declared victory in the Cold War."

The collapse of the USSR gave the branch of the Republican Party that wanted to destroy the New Deal confidence that their ideology was right. Believing that their ideology of radical individualism had destroyed the USSR, these so-called Movement Conservatives very deliberately set out to destroy what they saw as Soviet-like socialist ideology at home. As anti-tax crusader Grover Norquist wrote in the Wall Street Journal: “For 40 years conservatives fought a two-front battle against statism, against the Soviet empire abroad and the American left at home. Now the Soviet Union is gone and conservatives can redeploy. And this time, the other team doesn't have nuclear weapons.”

In the 1990s the Movement Conservatives turned their firepower on those they considered insufficiently committed to free enterprise, including traditional Republicans who agreed with Democrats that the government should regulate the economy, provide a basic social safety net, and promote infrastructure. Movement Conservatives called these traditional Republicans “Republicans in Name Only” or RINOs and said that, along with Democrats, such RINOs were bringing “socialism” to America.

With the “evil empire,” as President Ronald Reagan had dubbed the Soviet Union, no longer a viable enemy, Movement Conservatives, aided by new talk radio hosts, increasingly demonized their domestic political opponents. As they strengthened their hold on the Republican Party, Movement Conservatives cut taxes, slashed the social safety net, and deregulated the economy.

At the same time, the oligarchs who rose to power in the former Soviet republics looked to park their illicit money in western democracies, where the rule of law would protect their investments. Once invested in the United States, they favored the Republicans who focused on the protection of wealth rather than social services. For their part, Republican politicians focused on spreading capitalism rather than democracy, arguing that the two went hand in hand.

The financial deregulation that made the U.S. a good bet for oligarchs to launder money got a boost when, shortly after the September 11, 2001, attacks, Congress passed the PATRIOT Act to address the threat of terrorism. The law took on money laundering and the illicit funding of terrorism, requiring financial institutions to inspect large sums of money passing through them. But the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) exempted many real estate deals from the new regulations.

The United States became one of the money-laundering capitals of the world, with hundreds of billions of dollars laundered in the U.S. every year.

In 2011 the international movement of illicit money led then–FBI director Robert Mueller to tell the Citizens Crime Commission of New York City that globalization and technology had changed the nature of organized crime. International enterprises, he said, “are running multi-national, multi-billion dollar schemes from start to finish…. They may be former members of nation-state governments, security services, or the military…. These criminal enterprises are making billions of dollars from human trafficking, health care fraud, computer intrusions, and copyright infringement. They are cornering the market on natural gas, oil, and precious metals, and selling to the highest bidder…. These groups may infiltrate our businesses. They may provide logistical support to hostile foreign powers. They may try to manipulate those at the highest levels of government. Indeed, these so-called ‘iron triangles’ of organized criminals, corrupt government officials, and business leaders pose a significant national security threat.”

In 2021, Congress addressed this threat by including the Corporate Transparency Act in the National Defense Authorization Act. It undercut shell companies and money laundering by requiring the owners of any company that is not otherwise overseen by the federal government (by filing taxes, for example, or through close regulation) to file with FinCEN a report identifying (by name, birth date, address, and an identifying number) each person associated with the company who either owns 25% or more of it or exercised substantial control over it. The measure also increased penalties for money laundering and streamlined cooperation between banks and foreign law enforcement authorities.

But that act wouldn’t take effect for another three years.

Meanwhile, once in office, the Biden administration made fighting corruption a centerpiece of its attempt to shore up democracy both at home and abroad. In June 2021, Biden declared the fight against corruption a core U.S. national security interest. “Corruption threatens United States national security, economic equity, global anti-poverty and development efforts, and democracy itself,” he wrote. “But by effectively preventing and countering corruption and demonstrating the advantages of transparent and accountable governance, we can secure a critical advantage for the United States and other democracies.”

In March 2023 the Treasury told Congress that “[m]oney laundering perpetrated by the Government of the Russian Federation (GOR), Russian [state-owned enterprises], Russian organized crime, and Russian elites poses a significant threat to the national security of the United States and the integrity of the international financial system,” and it outlined the ways in which it had been trying to combat that corruption. “In light of Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine,” it said, “we must redouble our efforts to prevent Russia from abusing the U.S. financial system to sustain its war and counter Russian sanctioned individuals and firms seeking to exploit vulnerabilities in the U.S. financial system.”

The collapse of the USSR helped to undermine the Cold War democracy that opposed it. In the past 32 years we have torn ourselves apart as politicians adhering to an extreme ideology demonized their opponents. That demonization also helped to justify the deregulation of our economy and then the illicit money from the rising oligarchs it attracted, money that has corrupted our democratic system.

But there are at least signs that the financial free-for-all might be changing. The three years are up, and the Corporate Transparency Act will take effect on January 1, 2024.
 
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selmaborntidefan

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January 14, 1980 (Gallup article in Sterling, Illinois Daily Gazette, published by AP)
National polls

Carter approval rating 58%
Carter 63%
Reagan 32%

Carter 57%
Ford 38%

Ford 49%
Ted Kennedy 44%

Kennedy 50%
Reagan 42%

Note: Carter and Reagan were tied in September 1979, and Carter was up by 6 in October 1979.

November 26, 1991 (Santa Ana Orange County Register)
Bush approval rating: down to 51% (ties his record low at that point)
Bush 39% (which is what he got a year later)
Generic Democrat 37%

The one named Democrat (Mario Cuomo) got beat in all head-to-head polling with Bush.

CNN/Time Poll January 3, 1996
Clinton 50%
Dole 32%
(note: same article notes Dole led Clinton, 50-39, in January 1995 and were tied in September 1995).

My point? The polls can be all over the place compared with the reality of what happens. Carter got clobbered, Bush got exactly what was predicted and lost, and Clinton beat Dole easily if not by as many points as the January poll. And the approval ratings of both Carter and Bush sank with the economy while those of Clinton rose concurrently with the economy.

As noted, a calamity can happen overnight (or seemingly overnight). Covid-19, a market crash, a shooting war, a foreign policy crisis. Good news tends to take longer to bake into the cake.
 
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